532
FXUS64 KEPZ 300417
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1017 PM MDT FRI AUG 29 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 956 PM MDT FRI AUG 29 2025
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TOMORROW,
LIKELY CONTINUING OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE FALLING INTO THE 80S BY SUNDAY FOR THE LOWLANDS.
- THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY
IN THE HIGH TERRAIN.
- PRECIP CHANCES WILL DIMINISH MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 956 PM MDT FRI AUG 29 2025
A MESSY SYNOPTIC PATTERN, COUPLED WITH PLENTY OF ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION, WILL LEAD TO AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN,
WITH POTENTIAL FOR A LOT OF AREAWIDE RAINFALL THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION, BUT IT HAS WEAKENED,
SHIFTED TO THE SE, AND GETTING IS GETTING CUT BY AN UPPER TROUGH
PUSHING ACROSS THE ROCKIES. ALREADY, WE HAVE INTRODUCED INCREASED
MOISTURE, WHICH HAS RESULTING IN A MUCH MORE ACTIVE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FRIDAY. PWATS AND DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO
INCREASE, PEAKING SUNDAY. IN ADDITION, THE LOSS OF THE HIGH WILL
REMOVE A GOOD BIT OF THE STABILITY ALOFT, WITH DEEP MOISTURE, AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT.
TONIGHT WE ARE ANTICIPATING A FLOW REVERSAL AWAY FROM OUR EARLY
EVENING SOUTHERLY FLOW, SHIFTING MORE NORTHERLY DUE TO A PASSING
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE OVERNIGHT, AND WHAT APPEARS TO BE A LOT OF
OUTFLOW WINDS FROM SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER CENTRAL NM. MODELS DO
SUGGEST SOME ADDITIONAL OVERNIGHT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT, AND
THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WOULD TRACK SOUTH ACROSS THE BORDERLAND.
TOMORROW, SATURDAY, WE RESET THE ATMOSPHERE THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS, ADDING HEAT TO AN ALREADY MARGINALLY UNSTABLE, AND QUITE
MOIST ENVIRONMENT. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A POSSIBLE MID-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE TO OUR SOUTH THAT COULD WORK ITS WAY NW TOWARD OUR AREA
IN THE AFTN/EVE TO ENHANCE THE OROGRAPHIC AND HEAT INSTABILITY
INDUCERS FOR WHAT WE THINK WILL BE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
STORMS. RAINFALL RATES WILL LIKELY BE HIGH, AND STORM MOTION LOOKS
TO BE SLOW. THE RESULT SHOULD BE SOME AREAS OF LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING. THERE IS A FLOOD WATCH OUT FOR THE SACS FOR SATURDAY.
SUNDAY LOOKS SIMILAR, BUT WITH A TWIST. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
PUSH IN FROM THE NE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, TRACKING SW
ACROSS THE REGION. THE MODELS SUGGEST THIS WILL BE AN ENHANCER AND A
FOCUSER OF RAIN SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE OVERNIGHT, WELL INTO
SUNDAY.
HONESTLY, MODELS HAVE NOT BE VERY CONSISTENT OF LATE, SO CONFIDENCE
BEYOND SUNDAY IS NOT REAL HIGH. HOWEVER, A COUPLE OF CONCURRENT GFS
AND ECMWF RUNS ARE REBUILDING THE UPPER HIGH TO OUR NW. THIS WOULD
PUT A N AND NE FLOW ALOFT OVER OUR REGION, AND BEGIN TO SCOUR OUT
MOISTURE, PUSHING IT TO OUR S AND W, WITH DRIER CONTINENTAL AIR
MOVING IN FROM THE PLAINS. I DON'T SEE A COMPLETE DRYING THAT WOULD
REMOVE ALL POPS, BUT RAIN/STORM COVERAGE DOES LOOK TO BE GREATLY
REDUCED.
TUESDAY ONWARD, THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS AN AMPLIFIED WEST COAST
RIDGE AND MID WEST TROUGH, WITH OUR AREA SITTING LARGELY UNDER THE
RIDGE, WITH SOME POTENTIAL DAILY RECYCLING OF RESIDUAL MOISTURE, AND
A MINOR THREAT OF A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE TRACKING ACROSS NM, AND
POSSIBLY GIVING OUR AREA A SLIGHT UPTICK IN STORM PROBABILITY.
OTHERWISE, IT LOOKS LIKE A MORE DRY THAN WET WEEK, WITH TEMPERATURES
RUNNING A BIT BELOW NORMAL, DUE TO NORTH FLOW ALOFT.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 956 PM MDT FRI AUG 29 2025
INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY HAS LEAD TO WIDESPREAD RAIN
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION LASTING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SHOWERS WILL LINGER SEVERAL MORE HOURS INTO
THE OVERNIGHT, BUT ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AND BECOME WEAKER,
LESS IMPACTFUL, AND MORE ISOLATED ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT WINDS
TO BE IN SW TO W IN THE 5-15 KT RANGE GENERALLY. HOWEVER, ANY
REMAINING OVERNIGHT STORMS MAY PRODUCE OUTFLOWS CAUSING BRIEFLY
ERRATIC, AND GUSTY WINDS OF 35-45 KTS. SKIES WILL VARY FROM SCT130
WELL AWAY FROM STORMS, TO SCT- BKN080 BKN- OVC120 IN VCTY OF
STORMS. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS, BUT TEMPO/ISO MVFR/IFR WITH
PASSING STORMS DUE TO LOWER CIGS BKN060/LOWER VSBY 3-5SM IN +RA,
OR 1/2-1SM IN BLDU WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. WE SHOULD SEE A BREAK
IN SHRA AND TSRA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
SCATTERED TO POSSIBLY NUMEROUS STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, WILL ALL TERMINALS POSSIBLE IMPACTED WITH TEMO MVFR.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1120 AM MDT FRI AUG 29 2025
MOISTURE HAS INCREASED ACROSS THE AREA AND WIDESPREAD RAIN IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY ON THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SACS SATURDAY. IN GENERAL,
EXPECT AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN OUT WEST TO A HALF TO
THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH FURTHER EAST AND HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE
MOUNTAINS. DRIER AIR MOVES IN BY LATE MONDAY AND INTO MIDWEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AND RH'S DROPPING INTO
THE 20S LOWLANDS AND 30S/40S IN THE MOUNTAINS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 99 73 95 73 / 20 70 40 50
SIERRA BLANCA 93 65 90 65 / 40 50 60 60
LAS CRUCES 95 68 91 67 / 30 70 30 50
ALAMOGORDO 96 67 92 66 / 40 60 60 50
CLOUDCROFT 72 50 69 48 / 60 70 70 50
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 92 67 90 68 / 60 50 40 40
SILVER CITY 89 61 86 62 / 50 40 50 40
DEMING 98 68 94 68 / 30 50 30 40
LORDSBURG 94 69 92 69 / 30 30 30 40
WEST EL PASO METRO 97 72 92 72 / 20 70 30 50
DELL CITY 97 68 93 67 / 30 60 50 50
FORT HANCOCK 99 71 95 71 / 40 60 50 60
LOMA LINDA 90 65 87 64 / 30 60 50 50
FABENS 97 71 94 71 / 20 60 30 60
SANTA TERESA 95 70 92 69 / 20 70 30 60
WHITE SANDS HQ 96 70 92 69 / 30 70 40 50
JORNADA RANGE 95 68 90 67 / 40 70 40 50
HATCH 97 68 93 68 / 40 60 30 40
COLUMBUS 97 70 93 69 / 30 60 30 50
OROGRANDE 94 67 90 66 / 40 70 40 50
MAYHILL 82 55 79 54 / 70 70 70 60
MESCALERO 84 54 81 53 / 60 70 70 50
TIMBERON 81 53 77 53 / 50 70 70 60
WINSTON 85 55 82 55 / 80 50 60 30
HILLSBORO 93 63 90 63 / 50 60 40 40
SPACEPORT 94 66 90 66 / 50 60 30 40
LAKE ROBERTS 88 56 86 58 / 70 40 60 30
HURLEY 91 63 88 63 / 40 40 40 40
CLIFF 94 65 93 66 / 50 30 50 30
MULE CREEK 90 61 88 61 / 40 20 40 20
FAYWOOD 91 64 87 64 / 40 50 60 40
ANIMAS 94 68 92 68 / 40 50 40 40
HACHITA 94 67 90 67 / 40 50 30 50
ANTELOPE WELLS 93 65 90 66 / 50 60 50 60
CLOVERDALE 87 63 85 64 / 60 60 60 50
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...FLOOD WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
EAST SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET-SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7500 FEET-WEST SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS
BELOW 7500 FEET.
FORECASTER...14-BIRD
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