676
FXUS64 KEPZ 301214
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
614 AM MDT SAT AUG 30 2025
..NEW AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 605 AM MDT SAT AUG 30 2025
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TOMORROW,
LIKELY CONTINUING OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE FALLING INTO THE 80S BY SUNDAY FOR THE LOWLANDS.
- THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY
IN THE HIGH TERRAIN.
- PRECIP CHANCES WILL DIMINISH MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 956 PM MDT FRI AUG 29 2025
A MESSY SYNOPTIC PATTERN, COUPLED WITH PLENTY OF ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION, WILL LEAD TO AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN,
WITH POTENTIAL FOR A LOT OF AREAWIDE RAINFALL THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION, BUT IT HAS WEAKENED,
SHIFTED TO THE SE, AND GETTING IS GETTING CUT BY AN UPPER TROUGH
PUSHING ACROSS THE ROCKIES. ALREADY, WE HAVE INTRODUCED INCREASED
MOISTURE, WHICH HAS RESULTING IN A MUCH MORE ACTIVE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FRIDAY. PWATS AND DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO
INCREASE, PEAKING SUNDAY. IN ADDITION, THE LOSS OF THE HIGH WILL
REMOVE A GOOD BIT OF THE STABILITY ALOFT, WITH DEEP MOISTURE, AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT.
TONIGHT WE ARE ANTICIPATING A FLOW REVERSAL AWAY FROM OUR EARLY
EVENING SOUTHERLY FLOW, SHIFTING MORE NORTHERLY DUE TO A PASSING
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE OVERNIGHT, AND WHAT APPEARS TO BE A LOT OF
OUTFLOW WINDS FROM SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER CENTRAL NM. MODELS DO
SUGGEST SOME ADDITIONAL OVERNIGHT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT, AND
THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WOULD TRACK SOUTH ACROSS THE BORDERLAND.
TOMORROW, SATURDAY, WE RESET THE ATMOSPHERE THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS, ADDING HEAT TO AN ALREADY MARGINALLY UNSTABLE, AND QUITE
MOIST ENVIRONMENT. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A POSSIBLE MID-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE TO OUR SOUTH THAT COULD WORK ITS WAY NW TOWARD OUR AREA
IN THE AFTN/EVE TO ENHANCE THE OROGRAPHIC AND HEAT INSTABILITY
INDUCERS FOR WHAT WE THINK WILL BE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
STORMS. RAINFALL RATES WILL LIKELY BE HIGH, AND STORM MOTION LOOKS
TO BE SLOW. THE RESULT SHOULD BE SOME AREAS OF LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING. THERE IS A FLOOD WATCH OUT FOR THE SACS FOR SATURDAY.
SUNDAY LOOKS SIMILAR, BUT WITH A TWIST. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
PUSH IN FROM THE NE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, TRACKING SW
ACROSS THE REGION. THE MODELS SUGGEST THIS WILL BE AN ENHANCER AND A
FOCUSER OF RAIN SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE OVERNIGHT, WELL INTO
SUNDAY.
HONESTLY, MODELS HAVE NOT BE VERY CONSISTENT OF LATE, SO CONFIDENCE
BEYOND SUNDAY IS NOT REAL HIGH. HOWEVER, A COUPLE OF CONCURRENT GFS
AND ECMWF RUNS ARE REBUILDING THE UPPER HIGH TO OUR NW. THIS WOULD
PUT A N AND NE FLOW ALOFT OVER OUR REGION, AND BEGIN TO SCOUR OUT
MOISTURE, PUSHING IT TO OUR S AND W, WITH DRIER CONTINENTAL AIR
MOVING IN FROM THE PLAINS. I DON'T SEE A COMPLETE DRYING THAT WOULD
REMOVE ALL POPS, BUT RAIN/STORM COVERAGE DOES LOOK TO BE GREATLY
REDUCED.
TUESDAY ONWARD, THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS AN AMPLIFIED WEST COAST
RIDGE AND MID WEST TROUGH, WITH OUR AREA SITTING LARGELY UNDER THE
RIDGE, WITH SOME POTENTIAL DAILY RECYCLING OF RESIDUAL MOISTURE, AND
A MINOR THREAT OF A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE TRACKING ACROSS NM, AND
POSSIBLY GIVING OUR AREA A SLIGHT UPTICK IN STORM PROBABILITY.
OTHERWISE, IT LOOKS LIKE A MORE DRY THAN WET WEEK, WITH TEMPERATURES
RUNNING A BIT BELOW NORMAL, DUE TO NORTH FLOW ALOFT.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 605 AM MDT SAT AUG 30 2025
WE WILL SEE ANOTHER DAY WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IT IS STILL UNCLEAR IF ANY OF THE TAF
SITES WILL SEE DIRECT IMPACTS FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS, SO FOR NOW I
HAVE LEFT MENTION OF TSRA OUT OF THE TAF'S. AS CONVECTION DEVELOPS
THIS AFTERNOON WE CAN UPDATE TAF'S IF STORMS LOOK TO TREND TOWARD
ONE OF THE TAF SITES. WE WILL SEE OFF AND ON MID CEILINGS TODAY
AND TONIGHT AND WE COULD SEE SOME MVFR CEILINGS IN AND NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS. OUR SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TODAY AND TONIGHT
FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 605 AM MDT SAT AUG 30 2025
THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE LOW FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. WE WILL HAVE A GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN BOTH TODAY AND
SUNDAY, WITH A FEW STORMS PRODUCING EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. MIN TODAY
AND SUNDAY WILL BE 20% OR HIGHER ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND FROM SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST THIS WEEKEND. FOR THE START OF
NEXT WEEK, WE WILL HAVE LOWER RAIN CHANCES, BUT MIN RH'S WILL
CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE 20%. WINDS ALSO WILL STAY WELL BELOW
CRITICAL LEVELS FOR THE START OF THE COMING WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 95 73 88 71 / 40 50 70 60
SIERRA BLANCA 90 65 83 63 / 60 60 80 60
LAS CRUCES 91 67 85 65 / 30 50 70 60
ALAMOGORDO 92 66 86 64 / 60 50 70 50
CLOUDCROFT 69 48 62 46 / 70 50 90 50
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 90 68 85 64 / 40 40 70 50
SILVER CITY 86 62 82 59 / 50 40 80 60
DEMING 94 68 89 66 / 30 40 70 70
LORDSBURG 92 69 88 66 / 30 40 60 60
WEST EL PASO METRO 92 72 87 70 / 30 50 70 60
DELL CITY 93 67 85 64 / 50 50 80 50
FORT HANCOCK 95 71 91 70 / 50 60 80 60
LOMA LINDA 87 64 78 63 / 50 50 70 50
FABENS 94 71 88 69 / 30 60 70 60
SANTA TERESA 92 69 85 67 / 30 60 70 60
WHITE SANDS HQ 92 69 85 68 / 40 50 80 60
JORNADA RANGE 90 67 85 65 / 40 50 80 60
HATCH 93 68 88 65 / 30 40 80 60
COLUMBUS 93 69 88 67 / 30 50 70 70
OROGRANDE 90 66 83 64 / 40 50 70 50
MAYHILL 79 54 70 52 / 70 60 90 50
MESCALERO 81 53 75 51 / 70 50 90 50
TIMBERON 77 53 70 50 / 70 60 80 50
WINSTON 82 55 79 54 / 60 30 80 50
HILLSBORO 90 63 86 61 / 40 40 80 60
SPACEPORT 90 66 85 63 / 30 40 70 60
LAKE ROBERTS 86 58 83 54 / 60 30 90 60
HURLEY 88 63 83 61 / 40 40 80 60
CLIFF 93 66 91 63 / 50 30 70 50
MULE CREEK 88 61 87 60 / 40 20 60 40
FAYWOOD 87 64 83 61 / 60 40 80 60
ANIMAS 92 68 88 67 / 40 40 60 60
HACHITA 90 67 85 65 / 30 50 70 60
ANTELOPE WELLS 90 66 87 64 / 50 60 70 70
CLOVERDALE 85 64 83 63 / 60 50 70 60
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON MDT TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR EAST
SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET-SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7500 FEET-WEST SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS
BELOW 7500 FEET.
FORECASTER...15-BRICE
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