848
FXUS64 KEPZ 301709
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1109 AM MDT SAT AUG 30 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1042 AM MDT SAT AUG 30 2025
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SUNDAY
WITH POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY
IN THE HIGH TERRAIN.
- A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING.
- RAIN CHANCES AND MOISTURE LEVELS DIMINISH MONDAY THROUGH
MIDWEEK WITH STORMS FAVORING AREA MOUNTAINS.
- TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1042 AM MDT SAT AUG 30 2025
ABUNDANT MOISTURE HAS MOVED IN FROM THE SOUTH VIA A WEAKNESS IN HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT, REFLECTED BY PWS OF 1.36" ON THE 12Z EPZ SOUNDING.
THIS MORNING'S MID-HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO CLEAR OUT, SETTING THE
STAGE FOR EFFICIENT RAIN-PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP LATER
TODAY. THE LATEST HRRR RUNS SHOW LESS STORM COVERAGE FOR TODAY
COMPARED TO WHAT WAS EXPECTED THE LAST COUPLE DAYS DUE TO THE
PRESENCE OF CLOUDS AND STABLE AIR. HOWEVER, THE HRRR HAS NOT
PERFORMED WELL SINCE THURSDAY FOR THE LOWLANDS REGARDING PM
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. THE ONLY TRIGGER WE HAVE TODAY IS A WEAK
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WITHIN THE UPPER RIDGE. ANY STORMS THAT
DEVELOP LATER TODAY WILL BE SLOW-MOVING AND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
RAIN RATES OF 1-2" PER HOUR, FAVORING EASTERN AREAS AS INDICATED
BY WPC'S ERO WHERE THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK.
THE BACKDOOR FRONT THAT WAS MODELED TO ARRIVE LATER TODAY IS NOW
FORECAST TO REACH THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING FROM THE EAST, PROVIDING
MORE LIFT FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT. SUNDAY STILL LOOKS LIKE THE MOST
ACTIVE DAY FOR STORM COVERAGE (SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD) AND FLASH
FLOOD POTENTIAL AS THE FRONT PUSHES TO THE SOUTH INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
PWS REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL TOMORROW (UP TO 1.5" FOR KELP), KEEPING
HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL PRETTY HIGH. THE PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT WILL BE
KEY IN DETERMINING WHERE STORMS ARE MOST LIKELY TO DEVELOP.
THE UPPER HIGH SITUATES ITSELF TO THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT, FORCING THE
FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO MONDAY INSTEAD OF STALLING OVERHEAD LIKE
PREVIOUSLY ENVISIONED. MOISTURE LEVELS FALL TO NEAR NORMAL THROUGH
MONDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES INTO MEXICO. STORM CHANCES DECREASE ON
MONDAY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH DRIER AIR ROTATING IN AROUND THE
AMPLIFYING UPPER HIGH. THIS DRYING TREND CONTINUES THROUGH WED WITH
STORMS FAVORING AREA MTNS AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE
LOWLANDS. ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING AN UPTICK IN MOISTURE AND
STORM CHANCES LATE IN THE WEEK, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1042 AM MDT SAT AUG 30 2025
MID-HIGH CLOUDS ARE CLEARING OUT TO START THE PERIOD, ALLOWING FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE
IS LOW IN STORM COVERAGE, BUT KELP IS MOST FAVORED TO SEE TS,
LOWERING TO THE NORTH AND WEST TOWARDS KTCS AND KDMN. RADAR
TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE AMENDMENTS. TS MAY PRODUCE
GUSTY WINDS TO 30KTS AND HEAVY RAINFALL, LOWERING VIS TO MVFR
LEVELS. PREVAILING WINDS REMAIN AOB 8KTS MOSTLY FROM S-SE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1042 AM MDT SAT AUG 30 2025
THERE WILL BE NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. MOISTURE LEVELS REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH SUNDAY AS
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES IN FROM THE EAST. STORM CHANCES WILL BE
MEDIUM-HIGH FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WITH POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
AND FLASH FLOODING. AREA MTNS ARE MOST LIKELY TO SEE HEAVY
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SHORT TERM, ESPECIALLY THE SACS. OVERNIGHT
RECOVERIES WILL BE VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT THROUGH EARLY WEEK. THE
FRONT MOVES INTO MEXICO FROM THE NORTH ON MONDAY, LOWERING
MOISTURE LEVELS AND STORM CHANCES MON-WED, FAVORING THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. PREVAILING WINDS OUTSIDE OF OUTFLOWS WILL BE LIGHT FROM
THE EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR A BIT BELOW NORMAL.
MIN RHS WILL BE 30-50% THROUGH MON, THEN 20-35%; 50-80% IN THE
SACS THROUGH MONDAY. VENT RATES RANGE FROM POOR TO GOOD THROUGH
MON, THEN IMPROVING SLIGHTLY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 74 90 71 89 / 50 50 50 30
SIERRA BLANCA 64 82 62 81 / 60 80 50 50
LAS CRUCES 68 87 65 86 / 50 60 60 30
ALAMOGORDO 67 87 64 86 / 50 60 40 30
CLOUDCROFT 48 63 45 63 / 50 70 40 40
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 67 86 65 85 / 30 60 50 30
SILVER CITY 62 83 59 81 / 30 80 60 50
DEMING 69 90 66 89 / 40 60 60 30
LORDSBURG 69 90 68 86 / 20 60 60 30
WEST EL PASO METRO 72 87 69 86 / 50 60 50 30
DELL CITY 67 86 63 86 / 50 60 40 30
FORT HANCOCK 71 90 69 87 / 60 70 50 50
LOMA LINDA 64 80 62 80 / 50 60 40 30
FABENS 71 88 68 86 / 60 60 50 40
SANTA TERESA 69 87 66 85 / 50 60 50 30
WHITE SANDS HQ 70 87 68 87 / 50 60 50 30
JORNADA RANGE 67 86 65 86 / 40 50 60 40
HATCH 68 90 65 88 / 40 60 60 30
COLUMBUS 69 89 67 86 / 50 60 60 30
OROGRANDE 66 85 63 85 / 50 50 40 30
MAYHILL 54 71 51 73 / 60 70 40 50
MESCALERO 53 74 51 76 / 50 70 50 40
TIMBERON 52 72 50 72 / 50 60 40 40
WINSTON 54 80 55 79 / 40 70 60 40
HILLSBORO 62 87 61 85 / 40 70 70 40
SPACEPORT 66 85 63 84 / 40 60 60 30
LAKE ROBERTS 57 84 55 82 / 40 80 60 70
HURLEY 64 85 61 83 / 30 70 60 40
CLIFF 65 91 63 89 / 20 70 50 50
MULE CREEK 61 87 60 84 / 10 60 50 40
FAYWOOD 65 84 61 82 / 40 70 60 50
ANIMAS 68 90 68 86 / 30 50 60 30
HACHITA 66 87 65 84 / 40 60 60 30
ANTELOPE WELLS 65 87 64 83 / 50 60 70 40
CLOVERDALE 64 83 63 81 / 40 60 60 50
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR EAST SLOPES SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET-SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7500
FEET-WEST SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET.
FORECASTER...39-ARONSON
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