631
FXUS64 KEPZ 310502
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1102 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1014 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2025
- VERY LOW CONFIDENCE NEAR TERM FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY, AS
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ARE PRESENT, BUT WE'RE LACKING FORCING
FOR LIFT.
- THERE'S A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MORNING THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
LOWLANDS ON SUNDAY, WHICH WOULD DIMINISH CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING SHOULD THEY CROP UP. IF THE MORNING
IS QUIET, THERE'S A BETTER CHANCE FOR EVENING THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE LOWLANDS.
- A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING, AND THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE GILA AND SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS CONTINUE TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL.
- RAIN CHANCES AND MOISTURE LEVELS WILL DIMINISH MONDAY AND
ESPECIALLY THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH STORMS FAVORING THE SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS AND GILA.
- TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1014 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2025
RADAR IS PRETTY QUIET THIS EVENING, WITH SOME LINGERING STRATIFORM
SHOWERS SOUTH OF SIERRA BLANCA, AND A PAIR OF ISOLATED SHOWERS IN
NORTHERN SIERRA COUNTY. SURFACE DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE 50S AND
60S, AND THE 00Z SOUNDING STILL FOUND A PWAT OF JUST OVER 1.30.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS THE AREA BISECTED SW TO NE BY A WEAKNESS
IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, WHICH CURRENTLY HAS TWO CENTERS OVER SW
ARIZONA AND THE TEXAS GULF COAST. THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL REMAIN
UNCHANGED THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY.
THAT SAID, THE NEAR TERM FORECAST IS WILDLY LOW-CONFIDENCE, PARTLY
DUE TO THE LACK OF ANY STRONG UPPER LEVEL FORCING DESPITE MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE. MOST OF THE 00Z HREF MEMBERS
ARE ALREADY OUT-TO-LUNCH AT 0430Z. THE NSSL WRF HAS NON-EXISTENT
RAINFALL ALL OVER THE AREA. THE ARW WRF IS TOO ACTIVE TOO FAR
NORTH IN CHIHUAHUA, AND TOO ACTIVE OVER CATRON AND SOCORRO
COUNTIES, AND UNDERCOOKED AND MISPLACED WITH THE MCS EAST OF
ROSWELL. THE FV3 COMPLETELY MISSED THE BOAT WITH ONGOING
CONVECTION IN SEVERAL PARTS OF EASTERN NM, AND IS FAR TOO ACTIVE
WITH NON-EXISTENT CONVECTION ACROSS THE BORDERLAND. THE NAM-NEST
AND THE 00Z HRRR ARE DOING FAIRLY WELL, THOUGH THE 03Z HRRR RUN IS
FAR UNDERDONE IN EASTERN NM.
A COUPLE OF THE UNDERPERFORMING HREF MEMBERS WERE TRYING TO
PRODUCE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IN THE CENTRAL PART OF OUR CWA
TOWARDS DAWN. IN THE CASE OF THE ARW, IT APPEARED TO BE PARTIALLY
INFLUENCED BY OUTFLOW FROM EASTERN NM CONVECTION DESPITE IT BEING
TOO WEAK WITH IT PRESENTLY. THE FV3 STILL MANAGED TO DEVELOP EARLY
AM CONVECTION, BUT WITHOUT ANY OUTFLOW. FOR THE OFFICIAL FORECAST,
I TAMPED DOWN NEAR-DAWN POPS TO AROUND 20 PERCENT, BUT INCREASED
TO 30-40 AFTER 15Z, MORE IN-LINE WITH THE 00Z HRRR AND A NOD TO
THE OBSERVED CONVECTION OVER EASTERN NM. BUT, THERE'S A CHANCE
THIS WILL ALL BE GHOST CONVECTION, AND INSTEAD WE'LL SEE A MORE
TYPICAL DIURNAL PROGRESSION THROUGH SUNDAY (WHICH IS IN LINE WITH
THAT THE 18Z RRFS WAS SHOWING).
EITHER WAY, THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND
POTENTIALLY HEAVY (THOUGH LOCALIZED) RAINFALL IS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE GILA AND THE SACRAMENTOS.
ON MONDAY, THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REFOCUS OVER ARIZONA, WHILE
A DIGGING TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS BRINGS
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT DOWN THE GREAT PLAINS. WE'LL SEE NORTHERLY
FLOW, BUT WITH SOME DRYING WORKING ALOFT, WHILE HIGHER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO LURK ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.
WE'LL SEE SEE SCATTERED POPS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN MONDAY, WITH
ISOLATED ACTIVITY WORKING INTO THE LOWLANDS IN THE EVENING.'
MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH MID-WEEK,
AND PRECIP CHANCES WILL WANE. PRECIP CHANCES WILL CREEP BACK UP
AGAIN TOWARDS FRIDAY, POSSIBLY AIDED BY TROPICAL ACTIVITY IN THE
EASTERN PACIFIC. THE TRACK OF THIS POTENTIAL TROPICAL SYSTEM LOOKS
TO CURVE IN FROM COLD SIDE OF THE BAJA, WHICH OFTEN LIMITS THE
POTENTIAL FOR REALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, BUT STILL WOULD BE ENOUGH FOR
AN UPTICK IN RAIN CHANCES.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1014 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2025
FAIRLY QUIET ACROSS THE AREA PRESENTLY. FORECAST THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS VERY LOW CONFIDENCE GIVEN A LACK OF STRONG
FORCING DESPITE FAIR INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE PRESENT. SOME HIGHER
RESOLUTION FORECAST MODELS WERE SUGGESTING EARLY MORNING (10-16Z)
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY POSSIBLY AROUND LRU AND ELP, BUT THOSE SAME
MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING ON-GOING WEATHER WELL AT ALL, JUST 5
HOURS INTO THEIR FORECAST PERIODS. SO, WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF
THUNDER OUT OF THE TAFS IN THE EARLY MORNING FOR NOW, GIVEN
PROBABILITIES AROUND 20 PERCENT.
IF NO CONVECTION OCCURS EARLY ON, THERE'S A BETTER SHOT AT
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LOWLANDS AT THE MORE TYPICAL LATE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING TIMEFRAMES, ESPECIALLY GIVEN THAT THE BEST
MOISTURE WILL BE STRUNG OUT CLOSE TO THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER BY
SUNDAY EVENING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1042 AM MDT SAT AUG 30 2025
THERE WILL BE NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. MOISTURE LEVELS REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH SUNDAY AS
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES IN FROM THE EAST. STORM CHANCES WILL BE
MEDIUM-HIGH FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WITH POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
AND FLASH FLOODING. AREA MTNS ARE MOST LIKELY TO SEE HEAVY
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SHORT TERM, ESPECIALLY THE SACS. OVERNIGHT
RECOVERIES WILL BE VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT THROUGH EARLY WEEK. THE
FRONT MOVES INTO MEXICO FROM THE NORTH ON MONDAY, LOWERING
MOISTURE LEVELS AND STORM CHANCES MON-WED, FAVORING THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. PREVAILING WINDS OUTSIDE OF OUTFLOWS WILL BE LIGHT FROM
THE EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR A BIT BELOW NORMAL.
MIN RHS WILL BE 30-50% THROUGH MON, THEN 20-35%; 50-80% IN THE
SACS THROUGH MONDAY. VENT RATES RANGE FROM POOR TO GOOD THROUGH
MON, THEN IMPROVING SLIGHTLY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 73 91 71 89 / 40 40 40 30
SIERRA BLANCA 64 84 62 83 / 60 40 50 50
LAS CRUCES 68 86 65 85 / 40 40 50 20
ALAMOGORDO 66 88 64 86 / 40 40 30 20
CLOUDCROFT 48 64 46 65 / 30 70 40 40
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 67 86 65 85 / 20 40 40 20
SILVER CITY 61 83 59 82 / 20 50 50 50
DEMING 68 90 66 88 / 40 30 40 20
LORDSBURG 68 90 67 87 / 20 30 30 20
WEST EL PASO METRO 73 89 70 86 / 40 40 40 30
DELL CITY 67 87 64 86 / 40 30 30 20
FORT HANCOCK 71 91 69 88 / 50 40 40 50
LOMA LINDA 64 81 61 80 / 40 40 40 30
FABENS 71 89 68 87 / 30 30 40 30
SANTA TERESA 69 88 66 85 / 40 40 40 30
WHITE SANDS HQ 69 88 67 86 / 40 40 40 30
JORNADA RANGE 67 86 64 85 / 40 40 50 20
HATCH 68 90 65 88 / 30 40 40 20
COLUMBUS 69 89 66 86 / 50 40 50 30
OROGRANDE 66 86 63 85 / 40 40 30 20
MAYHILL 54 72 52 74 / 50 50 40 50
MESCALERO 53 76 51 76 / 30 70 40 40
TIMBERON 53 73 50 72 / 40 60 40 30
WINSTON 54 81 54 79 / 20 50 40 30
HILLSBORO 63 88 61 85 / 30 40 40 30
SPACEPORT 66 86 62 85 / 30 30 50 20
LAKE ROBERTS 57 83 55 83 / 30 70 50 50
HURLEY 63 85 61 83 / 20 50 50 40
CLIFF 65 91 63 89 / 20 60 50 50
MULE CREEK 61 87 60 85 / 10 50 40 50
FAYWOOD 64 84 61 82 / 30 40 40 40
ANIMAS 68 90 67 87 / 30 40 50 20
HACHITA 67 88 65 84 / 40 30 50 30
ANTELOPE WELLS 66 87 63 84 / 40 40 60 40
CLOVERDALE 64 84 62 80 / 30 40 50 40
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR EAST SLOPES SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET-SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7500
FEET-WEST SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET.
FORECASTER...25-HARDIMAN
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