665
FXUS64 KEPZ 311116
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
516 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2025
..NEW AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 515 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2025
- VERY LOW CONFIDENCE NEAR TERM FORECAST TODAY AND TONIGHT AS
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ARE PRESENT, BUT WE'RE LACKING FORCING
FOR LIFT.
- A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING, AND THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE GILA AND SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS CONTINUE TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL.
- RAIN CHANCES AND MOISTURE LEVELS WILL DIMINISH MONDAY AND
ESPECIALLY THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH STORMS FAVORING THE SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS AND GILA.
- TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1014 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2025
RADAR IS PRETTY QUIET THIS EVENING, WITH SOME LINGERING STRATIFORM
SHOWERS SOUTH OF SIERRA BLANCA, AND A PAIR OF ISOLATED SHOWERS IN
NORTHERN SIERRA COUNTY. SURFACE DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE 50S AND
60S, AND THE 00Z SOUNDING STILL FOUND A PWAT OF JUST OVER 1.30.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS THE AREA BISECTED SW TO NE BY A WEAKNESS
IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, WHICH CURRENTLY HAS TWO CENTERS OVER SW
ARIZONA AND THE TEXAS GULF COAST. THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL REMAIN
UNCHANGED THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY.
THAT SAID, THE NEAR TERM FORECAST IS WILDLY LOW-CONFIDENCE, PARTLY
DUE TO THE LACK OF ANY STRONG UPPER LEVEL FORCING DESPITE MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE. MOST OF THE 00Z HREF MEMBERS
ARE ALREADY OUT-TO-LUNCH AT 0430Z. THE NSSL WRF HAS NON-EXISTENT
RAINFALL ALL OVER THE AREA. THE ARW WRF IS TOO ACTIVE TOO FAR
NORTH IN CHIHUAHUA, AND TOO ACTIVE OVER CATRON AND SOCORRO
COUNTIES, AND UNDERCOOKED AND MISPLACED WITH THE MCS EAST OF
ROSWELL. THE FV3 COMPLETELY MISSED THE BOAT WITH ONGOING
CONVECTION IN SEVERAL PARTS OF EASTERN NM, AND IS FAR TOO ACTIVE
WITH NON-EXISTENT CONVECTION ACROSS THE BORDERLAND. THE NAM-NEST
AND THE 00Z HRRR ARE DOING FAIRLY WELL, THOUGH THE 03Z HRRR RUN IS
FAR UNDERDONE IN EASTERN NM.
A COUPLE OF THE UNDERPERFORMING HREF MEMBERS WERE TRYING TO
PRODUCE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IN THE CENTRAL PART OF OUR CWA
TOWARDS DAWN. IN THE CASE OF THE ARW, IT APPEARED TO BE PARTIALLY
INFLUENCED BY OUTFLOW FROM EASTERN NM CONVECTION DESPITE IT BEING
TOO WEAK WITH IT PRESENTLY. THE FV3 STILL MANAGED TO DEVELOP EARLY
AM CONVECTION, BUT WITHOUT ANY OUTFLOW. FOR THE OFFICIAL FORECAST,
I TAMPED DOWN NEAR-DAWN POPS TO AROUND 20 PERCENT, BUT INCREASED
TO 30-40 AFTER 15Z, MORE IN-LINE WITH THE 00Z HRRR AND A NOD TO
THE OBSERVED CONVECTION OVER EASTERN NM. BUT, THERE'S A CHANCE
THIS WILL ALL BE GHOST CONVECTION, AND INSTEAD WE'LL SEE A MORE
TYPICAL DIURNAL PROGRESSION THROUGH SUNDAY (WHICH IS IN LINE WITH
THAT THE 18Z RRFS WAS SHOWING).
EITHER WAY, THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND
POTENTIALLY HEAVY (THOUGH LOCALIZED) RAINFALL IS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE GILA AND THE SACRAMENTOS.
ON MONDAY, THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REFOCUS OVER ARIZONA, WHILE
A DIGGING TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS BRINGS
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT DOWN THE GREAT PLAINS. WE'LL SEE NORTHERLY
FLOW, BUT WITH SOME DRYING WORKING ALOFT, WHILE HIGHER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO LURK ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.
WE'LL SEE SEE SCATTERED POPS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN MONDAY, WITH
ISOLATED ACTIVITY WORKING INTO THE LOWLANDS IN THE EVENING.'
MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH MID-WEEK,
AND PRECIP CHANCES WILL WANE. PRECIP CHANCES WILL CREEP BACK UP
AGAIN TOWARDS FRIDAY, POSSIBLY AIDED BY TROPICAL ACTIVITY IN THE
EASTERN PACIFIC. THE TRACK OF THIS POTENTIAL TROPICAL SYSTEM LOOKS
TO CURVE IN FROM COLD SIDE OF THE BAJA, WHICH OFTEN LIMITS THE
POTENTIAL FOR REALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, BUT STILL WOULD BE ENOUGH FOR
AN UPTICK IN RAIN CHANCES.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 515 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2025
GENERALLY VFR THIS MORNING WITH SCT100 SCT-BKN250. OVER THE
SACRAMENTO MTNS/NE OTERO CO...SOME LOWER CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS/EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MAY SPREAD INTO THAT AREA OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE, EXPECT THE TYPICAL DIURNAL STORM
DEVELOPMENT, WITH SCATTERED BKN-OVC060CB -TSRA DEVELOPING OVER
BOTH THE SACRAMENTO AND BLACK RANGE MTNS AFTER 18Z. THESE STORMS
WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD ON OUTFLOW OVER MUCH OF THE LOWLANDS AFTER
21Z.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 515 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2025
THERE ARE REALLY NO FIRE CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT WEEK OTHER THAN A
RISK OF BURN SCAR FLOODING TODAY, AS WE CONTINUE WITH PLENTY OF
MONSOON MOISTURE OVER THE AREA. THE FLOOD THREAT FOR THE SCARS
WILL BE MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE WE
ARE LOOKING AT A GRADUAL DRYING TREND SO THAT BY TUESDAY, AND
ESPECIALLY WED/THU, STORMS WILL BE ISOLATED AND LIMITED MAINLY TO
THE MOUNTAIN ZONES. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN AROUND NORMAL TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW FOR THIS WEEK.
MIN RH: LOWLANDS 25-40% TODAY AND MONDAY, DECREASING TO 15-25%
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. GILA/BLACK RANGE MTNS 35-50% TODAY AND
MONDAY, DECREASING TO 20-35% TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SACRAMENT
MTNS 50-65% TODAY AND MONDAY, DECREASING TO 30-45% TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. VENT RATES FAIR-GOOD THROUGH FRIDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 91 71 89 69 / 30 40 30 10
SIERRA BLANCA 84 62 83 58 / 40 50 50 10
LAS CRUCES 86 65 85 64 / 30 50 20 10
ALAMOGORDO 88 64 86 62 / 30 30 20 10
CLOUDCROFT 67 46 65 45 / 70 40 40 10
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 86 65 85 64 / 40 40 20 20
SILVER CITY 83 59 82 59 / 50 50 50 30
DEMING 90 66 88 64 / 30 40 20 10
LORDSBURG 90 67 87 66 / 30 30 20 20
WEST EL PASO METRO 89 70 86 68 / 30 40 30 10
DELL CITY 87 64 86 62 / 30 30 20 0
FORT HANCOCK 91 69 88 66 / 40 40 50 10
LOMA LINDA 81 61 80 61 / 40 40 30 0
FABENS 89 68 87 65 / 30 40 30 10
SANTA TERESA 88 66 85 65 / 30 40 30 10
WHITE SANDS HQ 88 67 86 67 / 30 40 30 10
JORNADA RANGE 86 64 85 64 / 30 50 20 10
HATCH 90 65 88 64 / 30 40 20 10
COLUMBUS 89 66 86 66 / 30 50 30 10
OROGRANDE 86 63 85 62 / 30 30 20 10
MAYHILL 74 52 74 51 / 50 40 50 10
MESCALERO 78 51 76 50 / 70 40 40 10
TIMBERON 75 50 72 49 / 60 40 30 10
WINSTON 82 54 79 52 / 50 40 30 20
HILLSBORO 88 61 85 60 / 40 40 30 20
SPACEPORT 86 62 85 62 / 20 50 20 20
LAKE ROBERTS 84 55 83 54 / 70 50 50 30
HURLEY 85 61 83 60 / 50 50 40 20
CLIFF 91 63 89 62 / 60 50 50 20
MULE CREEK 87 60 85 60 / 50 40 50 20
FAYWOOD 84 61 82 61 / 40 40 40 20
ANIMAS 90 67 87 66 / 40 50 20 20
HACHITA 88 65 84 64 / 30 50 30 20
ANTELOPE WELLS 87 63 84 64 / 40 60 40 20
CLOVERDALE 84 62 80 62 / 40 50 40 20
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR EAST SLOPES SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET-SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7500
FEET-WEST SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET.
FORECASTER...17-HEFNER
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