887
FXUS64 KEPZ 312353
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
553 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 545 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2025
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT WITH
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING.
- A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS AND
GILA REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING.
- RAIN CHANCES AND MOISTURE LEVELS WILL DIMINISH MONDAY THROUGH
MIDWEEK WITH STORMS FAVORING AREA MOUNTAINS.
- TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1056 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2025
WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE AND SOME LIFT, TODAY IS EXPECTED TO
BE RATHER ACTIVE IN TERMS OF STORM COVERAGE. WE'VE ALREADY SEEN
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AM OVER NE DONA ANA COUNTY, WHICH IS
UNUSUAL THAT EARLY IN THE DAY, DUE TO WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE. PWS
ARE OVER 1" FOR MOST OF THE AREA ACCORDING TO THE LATEST SPC
MESOANALYSIS, EXCLUDING THE GILA REGION, AND THE 12Z EPZ SOUNDING
OBSERVED 1.31" (ABOUT 30% ABOVE AVERAGE). ADDITIONALLY, THE OUTFLOW-
ENHANCED BACKDOOR FRONT HAS MOVED IN FROM THE NORTHEAST THIS
MORNING, SPARKING A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS EAST OF THE US-54
CORRIDOR. WE ALSO HAVE SOME DEFORMATION ALOFT WITHIN A WEAKNESS IN
THE UPPER HIGH, ALLOWING FOR MORE LIFT OVER THE REGION.
DAYTIME HEATING WILL ONLY INCREASE THE STORM THREAT AND RISK OF
HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON AS OUR CONVECTIVE TEMP IS ONLY 84F.
THE MTNS WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF STORMS AS THE FLOOD WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SACS THROUGH THE EVENING. THE GILA
HIGHLANDS/BLACK RANGE HAVE BEEN ADDED TO THE WATCH AS HIGH-RES
GUIDANCE INDICATES BETTER COVERAGE OF HEAVY RAINFALL.
THE LOWLANDS CAN ALSO SEE HIGH RAIN RATES AND SLOW-MOVING STORMS
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS PWS INCREASE SLIGHTLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON TO ABOUT 1.4" AT EPZ. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY, OUTFLOWS, AND
OTHER AREAS OF CONVERGENCE WILL BE KEY IN DETERMINING EXACTLY WHERE
STORMS DEVELOP AND TRAIN, RESULTING IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING. THE ENTIRE AREA REMAINS UNDER A SLIGHT
RISK ERO THROUGH TONIGHT FROM THE WPC. OTHER THAN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN, LOCATIONS ALONG THE INT'L BORDER ARE MOST FAVORED TO SEE
HEAVY RAINFALL (HREF AND REFS GUIDANCE SUGGEST THIS) AS THE FRONT
TAKES LONGER TO COME THROUGH AND MOISTURE LEVELS STAY HIGH.
THE SLOW-MOVING FRONT AND ITS MOISTURE HANG AROUND THE INT'L BORDER
FOR MONDAY, PUSHING INTO MEXICO BY THE AFTERNOON. MOISTURE LEVELS
FALL TO NEAR NORMAL TOMORROW BEHIND THE FRONT WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STORMS, FAVORING THE MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN HUDSPETH. SOME
STORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG WINDS TODAY (ESPECIALLY FROM DEMING WEST,
WHERE THE HRRR HAS CONSISTENTLY SHOWN GUSTS TO 50 MPH - HABOOBS
POSSIBLE) AND TOMORROW AS WE HAVE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT SETS UP OVER THE GREAT BASIN REGION ON MONDAY,
ALLOWING DRIER AIR TO FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH THROUGH MIDWEEK. FROM
TUE-THU, LOW STORM CHANCES WILL FOCUS OVER AREA MOUNTAINS WITH
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE LOWLANDS.
ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING AN UPTICK IN MOISTURE AND STORM
CHANCES LATE IN THE WEEK, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN AND HOW ANOMALOUS THE MOISTURE WILL BE. THE EURO AI ENSEMBLE
IS MOST BULLISH ON PWS, PEAKING AROUND 1.3" FOR THE MEAN ON FRIDAY.
THE GEFS SHOWS A SUBTLE MOISTURE INCREASE WITH PWS NEAR 1" (AROUND
NORMAL) FOR THE MEAN NEXT WEEKEND. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
TROPICAL SYSTEM (NHC'S RED X OFF THE SW MEXICAN COAST) COMING ACROSS
BAJA AND INTO AZ. THE PASSAGE OF THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD INCREASE
RAIN CHANCES INTO NEXT WEEKEND, BUT WE'LL SEE BY HOW MUCH.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 545 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2025
THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY CLUSTERED OVER THE NM/AZ STATE LINE WITH
ISOLATED STORMS HERE AND THERE ACROSS SOUTHERN NM. STORM ACTIVITY
WILL PERSIST THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BUT ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH AS
WE GET TO THE LATE EVENING HOURS. KTCS LOOKS TO HAVE THE BEST
CHANCES FOR STORMS THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH A LOW END CHANCE OF
KDMN SEEING STORMS LATER IN THE EVENING. CAN EXPECT MID AND UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDS TO STICK AROUND THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TOMORROW.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1056 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2025
THERE WILL BE NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. MOISTURE LEVELS REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL TODAY AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS MOVED IN FROM THE EAST. STORM CHANCES WILL
BE MEDIUM-HIGH FOR MUCH OF THE AREA, PROGRESSING NORTH TO SOUTH.
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING AS A
FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THE EVENING FOR AREA MOUNTAINS.
THE FRONT MOVES INTO MEXICO FROM THE NORTH BY MONDAY AFTERNOON,
LOWERING MOISTURE LEVELS AND STORM CHANCES THROUGH THU, FAVORING
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. PREVAILING WINDS OUTSIDE OF OUTFLOWS WILL BE
LIGHT FROM THE E-SE. OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES WILL BE VERY GOOD TO
EXCELLENT THROUGH MON NIGHT, THEN GOOD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
OR A BIT BELOW NORMAL.
MIN RHS WILL BE 30-45% THROUGH MON, THEN 20-35%; 40-70% IN THE
SACS THROUGH MONDAY, THEN 30-50%. VENT RATES RANGE FROM POOR TO
GOOD TODAY, THEN FAIR TO VERY GOOD THROUGH TUE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 71 89 70 91 / 40 30 10 10
SIERRA BLANCA 62 81 59 85 / 50 60 10 10
LAS CRUCES 65 86 64 88 / 50 30 20 10
ALAMOGORDO 63 86 63 88 / 40 30 10 10
CLOUDCROFT 46 65 45 66 / 40 50 10 20
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 65 86 65 87 / 50 30 20 10
SILVER CITY 60 82 59 82 / 60 40 30 30
DEMING 67 89 66 90 / 60 30 20 10
LORDSBURG 68 88 67 88 / 50 30 30 20
WEST EL PASO METRO 70 87 69 88 / 40 30 10 10
DELL CITY 64 86 61 89 / 50 30 0 10
FORT HANCOCK 69 87 66 90 / 60 60 10 10
LOMA LINDA 62 80 61 82 / 40 40 10 10
FABENS 68 87 66 89 / 50 30 10 10
SANTA TERESA 67 86 66 87 / 50 30 10 10
WHITE SANDS HQ 68 87 66 89 / 50 30 20 10
JORNADA RANGE 65 86 64 88 / 50 30 20 10
HATCH 66 89 65 90 / 50 30 20 10
COLUMBUS 67 88 66 88 / 60 30 20 10
OROGRANDE 64 85 61 87 / 40 30 10 10
MAYHILL 52 73 51 76 / 50 60 10 20
MESCALERO 51 76 51 78 / 40 50 20 20
TIMBERON 50 73 49 75 / 40 50 10 10
WINSTON 54 80 54 80 / 50 40 30 20
HILLSBORO 60 86 60 87 / 60 40 30 20
SPACEPORT 64 85 63 86 / 50 30 20 10
LAKE ROBERTS 55 83 54 83 / 60 50 40 40
HURLEY 61 83 60 83 / 60 40 30 20
CLIFF 64 89 63 89 / 50 50 30 30
MULE CREEK 60 86 60 85 / 50 50 30 30
FAYWOOD 62 83 61 83 / 60 40 30 20
ANIMAS 67 88 66 88 / 50 30 20 20
HACHITA 65 86 64 86 / 50 30 20 10
ANTELOPE WELLS 64 85 64 85 / 50 40 20 20
CLOVERDALE 63 82 62 81 / 50 40 20 20
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR EAST SLOPES
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET-SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS
ABOVE 7500 FEET-SOUTHERN GILA REGION HIGHLANDS/BLACK RANGE-
WEST SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET.
FORECASTER...37-SLUSHER
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