747
FXUS64 KEPZ 011152
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
552 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2025
..NEW AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 544 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2025
- RAIN CHANCES AND MOISTURE LEVELS WILL DIMINISH STARTING TOMORROW
THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH STORMS FAVORING THE AREA MOUNTAINS
- HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK REMAIN NEAR NORMAL TO JUST
BELOW NORMAL
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 930 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2025
THE UPPER HIGH THAT WAS CENTERED OVER THE AREA TODAY WILL SLOWLY
MIGRATE OVER TO THE FOUR CORNERS BY TOMORROW. DRIER CONTINENTAL AIR
WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA TOMORROW ALLOWING FOR A NOTICEABLE DECREASE
IN STORM ACTIVITY TOMORROW AFTERNOON LIMITING STORMS GENERALLY TO
THE AREA MOUNTAINS AND CENTRAL NM. ACCORDING TO THE LATEST HRRR, A
GOOD AMOUNT OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS LOOK TO STICK AROUND
TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS TOMORROW WHICH WILL
CERTAINLY HINDER STORM COVERAGE IF CLOUD COVER DOES STICK AROUND.
THROUGHOUT THE WORK WEEK, THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME ELONGATED
AND AMPLIFIED EXTENDING FROM THE EPZ AREA ALL THE WAY TO SOUTHERN
BRITISH COLUMBIA. DURING THIS TIME, MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE
ATMOSPHERE BECOMES LACKLUSTER WITH PWS WELL BELOW AVERAGE DURING THE
MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK WHICH WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN LITTLE TO NO
STORMS, MAYBE ISOLATED STORMS IN THE AREA MOUNTAINS. THIS WEEKEND
COULD BE A BIT MORE ACTIVE AS MOISTURE LEVELS RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL,
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER STORM COVERAGE.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 544 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2025
WE WILL HAVE VFR CONDITIONS TODAY. OUR SURFACE WINDS WILL BE FROM
SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST AND WE MAY SEE SOME LOW END WIND GUSTS, BUT
THEY WILL DROP OFF IN THE EVENING HOURS. DRIER AIR IS MOVING INTO
THE AREA SO WE WILL SEE LOWER CHANCES FOR RAIN. DESPITE THE DRIER
AIR, WE WILL SEE OFF AND ON HIGH AND MID CEILINGS OF SCT-
BKN120-250 TODAY AND TONIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 544 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2025
AS WE MOVE INTO THE FIRST DAY OF SEPTEMBER, WE WILL CONTINUE TO
SEE LOW FIRE WEATHER RISKS THIS WEEK. DRIER AIR WAS MOVING INTO
THE REGION AND THAT WILL LEAD TO LESS THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TODAY
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. DESPITE THE LOWER MOISTURE, MIN RH'S WILL
CONTINUE TO RUN NEAR 20% OR HIGH FOR TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. OUR
WINDS WILL STAY BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS THIS WEEK AND VENTILATION
RATES WILL RANGE FROM GOOD TO VERY THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 91 70 92 70 / 20 10 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 84 59 85 59 / 20 10 10 0
LAS CRUCES 86 64 88 63 / 20 20 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 88 64 88 64 / 30 10 10 0
CLOUDCROFT 65 46 67 46 / 30 20 30 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 86 65 87 64 / 30 20 10 0
SILVER CITY 81 59 82 58 / 40 40 20 10
DEMING 89 65 90 63 / 20 20 0 0
LORDSBURG 87 67 88 65 / 30 30 10 10
WEST EL PASO METRO 88 69 88 69 / 20 10 0 0
DELL CITY 88 62 90 62 / 10 10 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 89 67 91 66 / 30 10 10 0
LOMA LINDA 81 62 82 62 / 20 10 10 0
FABENS 89 66 90 65 / 20 10 0 0
SANTA TERESA 87 66 88 65 / 10 10 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 89 67 88 67 / 20 20 10 0
JORNADA RANGE 87 64 87 64 / 20 20 10 0
HATCH 89 65 90 64 / 20 10 10 0
COLUMBUS 88 65 88 65 / 20 10 0 0
OROGRANDE 86 62 87 62 / 20 10 0 0
MAYHILL 75 51 77 51 / 30 10 20 0
MESCALERO 77 51 78 51 / 30 20 30 0
TIMBERON 74 50 75 50 / 30 10 20 0
WINSTON 79 53 80 52 / 30 30 20 10
HILLSBORO 86 60 86 60 / 30 30 10 10
SPACEPORT 86 63 86 62 / 20 20 10 0
LAKE ROBERTS 82 54 82 53 / 40 40 30 10
HURLEY 83 60 84 59 / 30 30 10 10
CLIFF 88 62 88 61 / 40 30 20 10
MULE CREEK 85 59 85 59 / 40 30 20 10
FAYWOOD 82 61 82 60 / 30 30 10 10
ANIMAS 88 65 88 62 / 20 20 10 10
HACHITA 86 64 86 62 / 20 20 10 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 84 62 85 62 / 30 20 10 10
CLOVERDALE 81 62 81 61 / 40 20 20 10
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...15-BRICE
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