196
FXUS64 KEPZ 012344
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
544 PM MDT MON SEP 1 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 536 PM MDT MON SEP 1 2025
- ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK WILL BE
CONFINED TO AREA MOUNTAINS.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK REMAIN NEAR NORMAL TO JUST
ABOVE NORMAL.
- RAINFALL CHANCES START TO RETURN FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS WE
GET SOME MOISTURE RETURNING FROM THE SOUTH.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1107 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2025
UPPER HIGH HAS STARTED TO BUILD IN AND PUSHED MOISTURE MAINLY
SOUTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. SOME LIGHT RAIN HAS CONTINUED
OVER SOUTHERN HIDALGO COUNTY AND NEAR THE RGV OF HUDSPETH COUNTY
BUT THAT'S ABOUT ALL. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH STORM ACTIVITY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH LITTLE INSTABILITY OVER AREA MOUNTAINS
AND DRIER AIR AT THE SURFACE FILTERING IN. DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS, THERE WILL BE GRADUAL CLEARING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA EXCEPT
NEAR SOUTHERN HIDALGO AND LUNA COUNTIES. LIGHT WINDS AND LOWER DEW
POINTS WILL ALLOW MORNING LOWS TO DROP A FEW DEGREES FROM THIS
MORNING'S LOWS.
FOR TUE THROUGH MOST OF THU, UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BE DIRECTLY
THROUGH CWA EXTENDING FROM NW TO SE. THIS WILL KEEP THE AREA IN A
GENERAL DRY PATTERN. NBM KEPT 20-30 POPS GOING FOR THESE DAYS BUT
FEEL WITH THE RIDGE AXIS IN PLACE AND DEW POINTS DROPPING INTO THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S UP NORTH THAT THOSE SEEMED A LITTLE HIGH
AND BROUGHT DOWN MAINLY IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
DURING THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO MID 90S FOR THE
LOWLANDS.
THINGS COULD START GETTING INTERESTING GOING INTO THE FRI/SAT
PERIODS. THERE HAS BEEN A TREND IN THE OPERATIONAL MODELS BRINGING
WHAT WILL LIKELY BE NAMED TROPICAL STORM LORENA UP THROUGH NW
MEXICO AND ACROSS THE BORDERLAND. THE EXACT TRACK WILL DEPEND ON
THE SPEED OF APPROACHING TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC COAST AND HOW THE
HIGH BREAKS DOWN OVER THE FOUR CORNERS INTO EASTERN MEXICO. TAKING
A QUICK LOOK AT THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN, IT SEEMS THERE IS A TREND
TOWARDS MORE MEMBERS MOVING THIS MOISTURE INTO THE REGION,
ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE RGV. THERE IS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY
WITH THIS TRACK, BUT DID KEEP NBM POPS IN THE LOW TO MID CHANCE
CATEGORY FOR NOW. IF THIS SYSTEM DOES COME TO FRUITION, WE COULD
EASILY BE LOOKING AT WIDESPREAD 1-2" RAINFALL AMOUNTS ALONG THE
MAIN TRACK OF THE REMNANT UPPER TROUGH. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
COOL DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY AND CURRENT HIGHS IN FORECAST WOULD BE
SEVERAL DEGREES TOO WARM FOR SAT. WILL WAIT FOR A LITTLE MORE
CONSISTENCY FROM MODELS BEFORE JUMPING ON BOARD TOO HEAVILY.
AS THE TROPICAL REMNANTS MOVE OUT, WE WILL SEE SOME RIDGING
BUILDING OVER THE AREA BUT THEN A FAIRLY POTENT UPPER TROUGH
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST IN THE LONG RANGE THAT COULD BE THE END TO
THE MONSOON SEASON, BUT WE WILL WAIT AND SEE.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 536 PM MDT MON SEP 1 2025
EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. VERY ISOLATED STORMS
AND SHOWERS AROUND SOUTHERN NM AND FAR WEST TX BUT NOT EXPECTING
ANY STORMS AT TERMINALS. STORMS AND SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH
TONIGHT MAKING FOR A QUIET NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LINGERING
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. TOMORROW WILL FEATURE SIMILAR ACTIVITY
TO WHAT WE SAW TODAY. NOT EXPECTING VERY MUCH WITH REGARDS TO
STORMS, MAYBE ISOLATED STORMS THAT INITIATE OVER THE SACRAMENTO
MTNS AND GILA REGION.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1107 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2025
DRIER AIR HAS STARTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AND
WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
GRADUALLY WARMING UP BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S FOR THE
LOWLANDS BY WEDNESDAY. MIN RH'S WILL BE FALLING BACK INTO THE MID
TEENS TO MID 20S AS WELL BY MIDWEEK BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT.
JUST SOME ISOLATED MOUNTAIN STORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON.
GOING INTO FRI AND SAT, THERE ARE SOME HINTS AT SOME REMNANT
TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVING IN WHICH WOULD BRING WIDESPREAD MODERATE
RAINFALL TOTALS TO THE AREA.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 71 91 68 94 / 10 10 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 60 87 58 89 / 10 10 0 0
LAS CRUCES 64 89 61 91 / 10 10 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 64 88 62 90 / 10 10 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 46 66 44 69 / 10 10 0 10
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 65 88 62 90 / 10 10 0 10
SILVER CITY 59 82 62 84 / 20 20 10 10
DEMING 65 91 62 92 / 10 10 0 0
LORDSBURG 66 87 63 90 / 10 10 0 10
WEST EL PASO METRO 69 89 67 91 / 10 10 0 0
DELL CITY 63 90 61 92 / 0 10 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 67 91 64 93 / 10 10 0 0
LOMA LINDA 62 83 61 85 / 0 10 0 0
FABENS 66 90 64 91 / 10 10 0 0
SANTA TERESA 66 89 62 91 / 10 10 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 67 90 62 92 / 10 10 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 64 89 58 91 / 10 10 0 0
HATCH 65 90 62 92 / 10 10 0 0
COLUMBUS 66 89 63 90 / 10 10 0 0
OROGRANDE 63 87 60 89 / 0 10 0 0
MAYHILL 52 77 49 80 / 0 10 0 20
MESCALERO 51 78 49 80 / 10 10 0 10
TIMBERON 51 75 49 77 / 0 10 0 10
WINSTON 53 80 51 82 / 20 20 0 20
HILLSBORO 61 87 59 90 / 20 10 0 10
SPACEPORT 64 88 61 89 / 10 10 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 54 82 47 85 / 20 30 10 20
HURLEY 60 84 57 86 / 20 10 0 10
CLIFF 59 87 54 91 / 20 20 10 10
MULE CREEK 59 85 50 87 / 20 20 10 20
FAYWOOD 61 84 59 85 / 20 10 0 10
ANIMAS 65 88 61 90 / 10 10 0 10
HACHITA 63 86 60 88 / 10 10 0 10
ANTELOPE WELLS 63 84 62 87 / 20 10 0 10
CLOVERDALE 61 81 60 83 / 20 10 10 10
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...37-SLUSHER
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