890
FXUS64 KEPZ 020414
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1014 PM MDT MON SEP 1 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 916 PM MDT MON SEP 1 2025
- ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK WILL BE
CONFINED TO AREA MOUNTAINS.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK REMAIN NEAR NORMAL TO JUST
ABOVE NORMAL.
- RAINFALL CHANCES START TO RETURN FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS WE
GET SOME MOISTURE RETURNING FROM THE SOUTH.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 916 PM MDT MON SEP 1 2025
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MIGRATE NORTH AND WEST,
ELONGATING FROM THE EPZ AREA TO SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA BY
MIDWEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE EACH DAY BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY NEAR TO JUST BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. IN ADDITION, WE CAN EXPECT A BIT OF A BREAK FROM STORMS WITH
THIS PATTERN. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN THE AREA MOUNTAINS
EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY. STILL LOOKS LIKE AN INCREASE IN
ACTIVITY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS LONG RANGE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E (EVENTUALLY LORENA) CROSSES BAJA
CALIFORNIA LATER IN THE WORK WEEK AND LOOKS TO PASS OVER THE AREA
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. IF THIS DOES OCCUR, THIS WOULD BRING GOOD RAIN
CHANCES AREAWIDE. HOWEVER, FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AT THIS
TIME.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 916 PM MDT MON SEP 1 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. EVEN LESS
STORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED TOMORROW AFTERNOON. ISOLATED STORMS AND
SHOWERS EXPECTED IN THE AREA MOUNTAINS BUT NOT MUCH EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT TONIGHT WITH MILD SOUTHERLY
BREEZINESS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1107 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2025
DRIER AIR HAS STARTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AND
WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
GRADUALLY WARMING UP BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S FOR THE
LOWLANDS BY WEDNESDAY. MIN RH'S WILL BE FALLING BACK INTO THE MID
TEENS TO MID 20S AS WELL BY MIDWEEK BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT.
JUST SOME ISOLATED MOUNTAIN STORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON.
GOING INTO FRI AND SAT, THERE ARE SOME HINTS AT SOME REMNANT
TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVING IN WHICH WOULD BRING WIDESPREAD MODERATE
RAINFALL TOTALS TO THE AREA.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 90 71 92 71 / 20 10 10 10
SIERRA BLANCA 84 60 86 61 / 30 10 10 10
LAS CRUCES 86 65 88 64 / 20 10 10 10
ALAMOGORDO 90 65 88 64 / 20 0 10 0
CLOUDCROFT 66 46 67 46 / 30 0 10 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 87 65 88 64 / 20 10 10 10
SILVER CITY 81 59 82 59 / 40 10 10 10
DEMING 88 65 90 64 / 20 10 10 10
LORDSBURG 87 66 88 65 / 20 10 10 10
WEST EL PASO METRO 88 70 90 71 / 20 10 10 10
DELL CITY 88 63 90 62 / 10 0 10 0
FORT HANCOCK 89 67 91 67 / 40 10 10 10
LOMA LINDA 81 62 83 64 / 20 0 10 10
FABENS 89 67 90 66 / 30 10 10 10
SANTA TERESA 87 67 88 66 / 20 10 10 10
WHITE SANDS HQ 89 68 89 68 / 20 10 10 10
JORNADA RANGE 87 65 88 65 / 10 10 10 10
HATCH 90 65 90 65 / 20 10 10 10
COLUMBUS 87 66 89 66 / 20 10 10 10
OROGRANDE 87 63 87 63 / 10 0 10 10
MAYHILL 75 52 77 51 / 20 0 10 0
MESCALERO 77 51 79 51 / 30 10 10 0
TIMBERON 74 50 75 51 / 20 0 10 0
WINSTON 79 53 80 53 / 30 10 10 10
HILLSBORO 86 61 87 61 / 30 10 10 10
SPACEPORT 86 64 87 64 / 20 10 10 10
LAKE ROBERTS 81 54 83 53 / 50 20 20 10
HURLEY 82 60 84 59 / 30 10 10 10
CLIFF 88 62 89 61 / 50 20 10 10
MULE CREEK 84 59 85 59 / 50 20 20 10
FAYWOOD 82 62 83 61 / 30 10 10 10
ANIMAS 87 65 88 64 / 30 10 10 10
HACHITA 85 64 87 63 / 20 10 10 10
ANTELOPE WELLS 83 63 85 61 / 50 20 10 10
CLOVERDALE 79 62 82 61 / 50 20 10 10
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...37-SLUSHER
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