866
FXUS64 KEPZ 021041
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
441 AM MDT TUE SEP 2 2025
..NEW AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 440 AM MDT TUE SEP 2 2025
- ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THROUGH THURSDAY, MOSTLY
CONFINED TO MOUNTAIN AREAS.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK REMAIN NEAR NORMAL TO JUST
ABOVE NORMAL.
- RAINFALL CHANCES START TO RETURN FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS WE
GET SOME MOISTURE RETURNING FROM THE SOUTH.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 916 PM MDT MON SEP 1 2025
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MIGRATE NORTH AND WEST,
ELONGATING FROM THE EPZ AREA TO SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA BY
MIDWEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE EACH DAY BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY NEAR TO JUST BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. IN ADDITION, WE CAN EXPECT A BIT OF A BREAK FROM STORMS WITH
THIS PATTERN. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN THE AREA MOUNTAINS
EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY. STILL LOOKS LIKE AN INCREASE IN
ACTIVITY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS LONG RANGE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E (EVENTUALLY LORENA) CROSSES BAJA
CALIFORNIA LATER IN THE WORK WEEK AND LOOKS TO PASS OVER THE AREA
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. IF THIS DOES OCCUR, THIS WOULD BRING GOOD RAIN
CHANCES AREAWIDE. HOWEVER, FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AT THIS
TIME.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS) ISSUED AT 440 AM MDT TUE SEP 2 2025
GENERALLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SCT100 SCT-BKN250.
DEVELOPING AFTER 18Z OVER THE MOUNTAINS, MAINLY THE BLACK
RANGE...ISOLATED BKN060CB -TSRA. A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE OVER THE LOWLANDS AFTER 22Z. ALL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
DISSIPATING BY AROUND 03Z. NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS...SOUTHEAST
10-13 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON; VARIABLE AOB 8 KNOTS AT OTHER TIMES.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 440 AM MDT TUE SEP 2 2025
NOT MANY FIRE CONCERNS IN THE SHORTER TERM; JUST ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY, MOSTLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. WITH THE ATMOSPHERE DRYING OUT SOME, BURN SCAR FLOOD
RISK IS ALSO QUITE LOW. TROPICAL MOISTURE BEGINS STREAMING IN FROM
THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL PRODUCE A HIGHER
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER ALL OF THE ZONES. THE RISK OF
FLOODING, BURN SCAR AND IN GENERAL, WILL INCREASE TOO, ESPECIALLY
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
MIN RH: LOWLANDS...20-30% THROUGH THURSDAY, INCREASING TO 30-45%
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. GILA/BLACK RANGE MTNS...25-35% THROUGH
THURSDAY, INCREASING 45-60% FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. SACRAMENTO
MTNS...25-40% THROUGH THURSDAY, INCREASING TO 55-70% FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. VENT RATES GOOD-VERY GOOD THROUGH THURSDAY, THEN
FAIR-GOOD FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 92 71 94 71 / 10 10 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 86 61 89 62 / 10 10 0 0
LAS CRUCES 88 64 90 65 / 10 10 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 88 64 91 66 / 10 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 67 46 68 49 / 10 0 10 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 88 64 90 66 / 10 10 0 0
SILVER CITY 82 59 84 61 / 10 10 10 10
DEMING 90 64 93 64 / 10 10 0 0
LORDSBURG 88 65 90 66 / 10 10 10 10
WEST EL PASO METRO 90 71 91 71 / 10 10 0 0
DELL CITY 90 62 91 64 / 10 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 91 67 93 69 / 10 10 0 0
LOMA LINDA 83 64 85 65 / 10 10 0 0
FABENS 90 66 91 67 / 10 10 0 0
SANTA TERESA 88 66 90 67 / 10 10 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 89 68 91 69 / 10 10 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 88 65 90 66 / 10 10 0 0
HATCH 90 65 93 65 / 10 10 0 0
COLUMBUS 89 66 91 66 / 10 10 0 0
OROGRANDE 87 63 89 65 / 10 10 0 0
MAYHILL 77 51 80 55 / 10 0 20 0
MESCALERO 79 51 80 54 / 10 0 10 10
TIMBERON 75 51 77 53 / 10 0 10 0
WINSTON 80 53 83 54 / 10 10 20 10
HILLSBORO 87 61 90 62 / 10 10 10 10
SPACEPORT 87 64 89 64 / 10 10 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 83 53 85 56 / 20 10 20 10
HURLEY 84 59 86 61 / 10 10 10 10
CLIFF 89 61 91 63 / 10 10 10 10
MULE CREEK 85 59 87 60 / 20 10 10 10
FAYWOOD 83 61 86 62 / 10 10 10 10
ANIMAS 88 64 90 65 / 10 10 10 10
HACHITA 87 63 89 63 / 10 10 0 10
ANTELOPE WELLS 85 61 88 63 / 10 10 10 10
CLOVERDALE 82 61 84 61 / 10 10 20 10
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...17-HEFNER
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