640
FXUS64 KEPZ 041122
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
522 AM MDT SAT OCT 4 2025
..NEW AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 453 AM MDT SAT OCT 4 2025
- WARM AND DRY WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES
AROUND 5-7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH TUESDAY.
- BREEZY CONDITIONS SATURDAY.
- SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1015 PM MDT FRI OCT 3 2025
LATE SUMMER-LIKE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THIS EARLY OCTOBER AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER NORTHERN MEXICO, WHILE A
PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES INLAND OVER THE GREAT BASIN BY SATURDAY.
THESE TWO FEATURES ARE WORKING IN TANDEM TO DRAW UP MOSTLY WARM
AND DRY AIR WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THUS UNSEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. AS MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING, THIS BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW WAS
ABLE TO DRAW HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE (ABOVE 400MB) FROM TS OCTAVE OVER
EASTERN ARIZONA AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO TODAY. IT DID ALLOW CU
BUILDUPS TODAY OVER SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO BUT APPEARS NO RAIN WAS
ABLE TO DEVELOP FROM THESE CLOUDS. THIS THIN, TROPICAL PLUME WILL
CONTINUE EAST OVERNIGHT, REACHING THE EASTERN CWA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. AGAIN, THIS LIKELY WILL HELP SOME CU DEVELOPMENT BUT
RAIN IS EXPECTED. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL HELP CREATE DECENT
LEE-SIDE LOW EASTERN COLORADO, ALLOWING BREEZY WINDS TO DEVELOP
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. EXPECT MORE
DRY WEATHER SUNDAY/MONDAY WITH HIGH TEMPS CONTINUING AROUND 5-7
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. BY LATE MONDAY AND MORESO ON TUESDAY, THE
INFLUENCE OF TROPICAL FEATURE PRISCILLA WILL BEGIN TO BE FELT OVER
OUR AREA. WHILE SHE WILL CONTRIBUTE LITTLE, IF ANY MOISTURE
INITIALLY, SHE IS ABLE BUILD UP SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE FROM THE
NORTHERN GULF OF AMERICA ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO. THIS WILL ALLOW
SOME SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND EVEN THE GULF
OF AMERICA, TO ADVECT IN AS MID-LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. THUS CHANCES OF RAIN WILL START AGAIN IN THE
FORECAST, IF NOT MONDAY NIGHT, THEN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. GFS AND
ECMWF ARE PRETTY SIMILAR THROUGH THURSDAY, THOUGH THE ECMWF DOES
NOT ADVECT AS MUCH MOISTURE UP. BOTH MODELS SHOW UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING OVER/NEAR THE CWA THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY FOR DRIER
WEATHER.
IF YOU WANT TO LOOK WAY OUT, THE GFS IS ADVERTISING A SORT OF
"MONSOON RENAISSANCE" AS DAYS 9-10 SHOW MORE TROPICAL MOISTURE
STREAMING UP WITH WHAT WOULD BE TROPICAL FEATURE RAYMOND.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 453 AM MDT SAT OCT 4 2025
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SKIES GENERALLY
SKC TO FEW THROUGH THE MORNING. WINDS LIGHT AND VRB WILL BECOME
SOUTHWEST AT 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.
SKIES IN THE AFTERNOON WILL BE FEW TO SCT AT 20-25KFT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 453 AM MDT SAT OCT 4 2025
WARM AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE AND MIN RH VALUES BETWEEN 17 TO 25 PERCENT
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREAS, ABOVE 30 FOR NM ZONE 113. BREEZY SOUTHWEST
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WITH WINDS OF 10-20 MPH AND GUSTS TO 30 MPH
POSSIBLE. SMOKE VENTILATION RATES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE VERY GOOD
TO EXCELLENT AREA WIDE.
VERY SIMILAR MIN RHS EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON BUT 20
FOOT WIND SPEEDS WILL BE LOWERED (GENERALLY 5-10 MPH BUT ISOLATED
LOCATIONS COULD SEE 15 MPH WINDS OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
BLACK RANGE. MIN RHS WILL BE 20-30% IN THE LOWLANDS AND 40-50% IN
THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT AFTERNOON
BREEZES. RAIN CHANCES RETURN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WHICH INCREASES
MIN RHS BOTH DAYS TO 25-35% IN THE LOWLANDS AND 50-65% IN THE
MOUNTAINS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 67 90 67 91 / 10 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 58 86 59 87 / 10 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 57 85 58 86 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 60 85 61 87 / 10 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 45 63 45 64 / 10 0 0 20
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 54 83 56 85 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 50 77 52 79 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 55 87 56 87 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 55 83 56 85 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 66 87 67 89 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 60 88 62 89 / 10 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 65 91 67 93 / 10 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 60 80 61 82 / 10 0 0 0
FABENS 65 89 65 91 / 10 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 62 85 63 87 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 63 85 63 87 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 58 84 59 86 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 55 87 57 88 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 59 88 61 88 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 59 84 60 86 / 10 0 0 0
MAYHILL 49 75 49 75 / 0 0 0 20
MESCALERO 49 75 50 76 / 0 0 0 20
TIMBERON 47 72 49 72 / 10 0 0 20
WINSTON 43 76 45 77 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 52 83 54 84 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 54 83 56 85 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 45 77 46 80 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 50 80 51 82 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 52 83 52 86 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 48 78 48 81 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 52 79 54 80 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 54 84 55 86 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 55 84 56 85 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 55 85 56 85 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 53 78 54 80 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...38-ROGERS
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