108
FXUS64 KEPZ 041802
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1202 PM MDT SAT OCT 4 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1156 AM MDT SAT OCT 4 2025
- WARM AND DRY WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES
AROUND 5-7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH TUESDAY.
- SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE MIDDLE PART
OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1156 AM MDT SAT OCT 4 2025
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN LIFTING OUT OVER THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE
NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS TONIGHT. BREEZY WINDS WILL SETTLE SOON AFTER
SUNSET AND WILL DIMINISH TO LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT. A NARROW BAND OF
MOISTURE AND SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MAY COMBINE THIS EVENING AND
LATER TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR LOW END LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS GENERALLY IN
HUDSPETH AND THE OTERO MESA. SOME LINGERING BREEZINESS POSSIBLE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON BUT OTHERWISE QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
ANOTHER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT BASIN REGION MONDAY AND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GULF STATES BEGINS TO RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF.
SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR MOISTURE TO FUNNEL INTO THE
AREA HEADING INTO TUESDAY. MEANWHILE, A PASSING TROUGH TO OUR NORTH
WILL SPILL DOWN A COOL FRONT FROM THE GREAT PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY BUT DOES SEEM LIKE IT STALLS OVER THE AREA TUESDAY. ANOTHER
PUSH EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE
FRONT FULLY PUSHES IN BY WEDNESDAY. AS THE FRONT TRIES TO PUSH
THROUGH THOSE TWO DAYS, BREEZY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE
FRONT AND ESPECIALLY FOR WEST FACING SLOPES. STORM CHANCES RETURN
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS WITH ABOVE AVERAGE MOISTURE (PWS
NEAR AN INCH). EXPECT GENERALLY LOW END CHANCES (ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STORMS) AS THERE'S NO REAL CLEAR LIFTING MECHANISM BESIDES
OROGRAPHICS AND TERRAIN INFLUENCES. PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS YESTERDAY
WERE SUGGESTING AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE AZ/NV/CA AREA WHICH
COULD'VE HELPED AID IN SOME BETTER LIFT AND INCREASING RAIN CHANCES,
BUT MODELS ARE RESOLVING THIS CUTOFF LOW IN THE PACIFIC WEST OF THE
LOS ANGELES. BY LATE IN THE WORK WEEK, HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD
OVER THE AREA BRINGING WARMER CONDITIONS, LIGHT WINDS, AND LOWERED
RAIN CHANCES.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1156 AM MDT SAT OCT 4 2025
A BREEZY DAY IS EXPECTED WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS GENERALLY REACHING TO
12-20KT SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS 20-30KT BY THE MIDDLE OF THE AFTERNOON.
SOME PATCHY BLDU POSSIBLE NEAR KDMN BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS
MOMENT. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH FEW080 THIS AFTERNOON
BECOMING SKC OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING AOB 10KT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1156 AM MDT SAT OCT 4 2025
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER TOMORROW AFTERNOON IN THE LOWLANDS OF SIERRA
COUNTY AS MIN RH VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 15-18% COMBINED WITH BREEZY
CONDITIONS WITH 20 FOOT WINDS OF 10-15 MPH IN THAT VICINITY. LOW
FIRE DANGER ELSEWHERE ON SUNDAY AS MIN RHS 18-24% IN THE LOWLANDS
AND 35-45% IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH SOUTHWEST 20 FT WINDS OF 5-10 MPH.
WIND SPEEDS THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE GENERALLY 5-10 MPH EACH
AFTERNOON AND MIN RHS STAY ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS EACH AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 67 89 66 92 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 58 86 59 86 / 20 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 57 84 58 86 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 59 85 60 87 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 44 63 44 64 / 0 0 0 10
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 54 83 55 84 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 50 77 52 79 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 54 86 56 88 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 54 83 56 84 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 66 86 66 89 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 59 88 61 89 / 20 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 65 91 66 92 / 20 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 59 81 61 83 / 20 0 0 0
FABENS 64 89 65 92 / 10 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 62 85 62 87 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 62 85 63 87 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 57 83 59 86 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 55 86 56 89 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 58 87 60 88 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 58 83 59 86 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 49 75 49 74 / 0 0 0 10
MESCALERO 48 74 48 76 / 10 0 0 10
TIMBERON 47 72 48 73 / 10 0 0 10
WINSTON 43 76 45 77 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 52 82 54 84 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 53 83 55 85 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 45 77 46 79 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 49 80 51 82 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 51 83 51 86 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 48 78 48 81 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 52 78 54 81 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 54 84 55 86 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 54 84 55 85 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 54 84 56 85 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 53 78 55 81 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...37-SLUSHER
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