160
FXUS64 KEPZ 042325
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
525 PM MDT SAT OCT 4 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 523 PM MDT SAT OCT 4 2025
- WARM AND DRY WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES
AROUND 5-7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH TUESDAY.
- SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE MIDDLE PART
OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1156 AM MDT SAT OCT 4 2025
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN LIFTING OUT OVER THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE
NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS TONIGHT. BREEZY WINDS WILL SETTLE SOON AFTER
SUNSET AND WILL DIMINISH TO LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT. A NARROW BAND OF
MOISTURE AND SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MAY COMBINE THIS EVENING AND
LATER TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR LOW END LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS GENERALLY IN
HUDSPETH AND THE OTERO MESA. SOME LINGERING BREEZINESS POSSIBLE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON BUT OTHERWISE QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
ANOTHER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT BASIN REGION MONDAY AND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GULF STATES BEGINS TO RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF.
SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR MOISTURE TO FUNNEL INTO THE
AREA HEADING INTO TUESDAY. MEANWHILE, A PASSING TROUGH TO OUR NORTH
WILL SPILL DOWN A COOL FRONT FROM THE GREAT PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY BUT DOES SEEM LIKE IT STALLS OVER THE AREA TUESDAY. ANOTHER
PUSH EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE
FRONT FULLY PUSHES IN BY WEDNESDAY. AS THE FRONT TRIES TO PUSH
THROUGH THOSE TWO DAYS, BREEZY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE
FRONT AND ESPECIALLY FOR WEST FACING SLOPES. STORM CHANCES RETURN
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS WITH ABOVE AVERAGE MOISTURE (PWS
NEAR AN INCH). EXPECT GENERALLY LOW END CHANCES (ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STORMS) AS THERE'S NO REAL CLEAR LIFTING MECHANISM BESIDES
OROGRAPHICS AND TERRAIN INFLUENCES. PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS YESTERDAY
WERE SUGGESTING AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE AZ/NV/CA AREA WHICH
COULD'VE HELPED AID IN SOME BETTER LIFT AND INCREASING RAIN CHANCES,
BUT MODELS ARE RESOLVING THIS CUTOFF LOW IN THE PACIFIC WEST OF THE
LOS ANGELES. BY LATE IN THE WORK WEEK, HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD
OVER THE AREA BRINGING WARMER CONDITIONS, LIGHT WINDS, AND LOWERED
RAIN CHANCES.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 523 PM MDT SAT OCT 4 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. GUSTINESS
LINGERS EARLY THIS EVENING FROM SW AND REDEVELOPS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS NEAR 20KTS. LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT
AOB 10KTS. FEW-SCT090 HANG AROUND TO BEGIN THE PERIOD, DISSIPATING
AROUND SUNSET. OTHERWISE, MAINLY SKC.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1156 AM MDT SAT OCT 4 2025
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER TOMORROW AFTERNOON IN THE LOWLANDS OF SIERRA
COUNTY AS MIN RH VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 15-18% COMBINED WITH BREEZY
CONDITIONS WITH 20 FOOT WINDS OF 10-15 MPH IN THAT VICINITY. LOW
FIRE DANGER ELSEWHERE ON SUNDAY AS MIN RHS 18-24% IN THE LOWLANDS
AND 35-45% IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH SOUTHWEST 20 FT WINDS OF 5-10 MPH.
WIND SPEEDS THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE GENERALLY 5-10 MPH EACH
AFTERNOON AND MIN RHS STAY ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS EACH AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 89 66 92 69 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 86 59 86 59 / 10 20 0 0
LAS CRUCES 84 58 86 62 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 85 60 87 62 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 63 44 64 45 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 83 55 84 60 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 77 52 79 56 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 86 56 88 62 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 83 56 84 61 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 86 66 89 69 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 88 61 89 61 / 10 20 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 91 66 92 67 / 10 20 0 0
LOMA LINDA 81 61 83 61 / 0 20 0 0
FABENS 89 65 92 67 / 0 10 0 0
SANTA TERESA 85 62 87 66 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 85 63 87 65 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 83 59 86 63 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 86 56 89 62 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 87 60 88 65 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 83 59 86 62 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 75 49 74 49 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 74 48 76 49 / 10 10 0 0
TIMBERON 72 48 73 49 / 0 10 0 0
WINSTON 76 45 77 49 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 82 54 84 57 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 83 55 85 60 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 77 46 79 49 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 80 51 82 56 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 83 51 86 57 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 78 48 81 53 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 78 54 81 58 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 84 55 86 60 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 84 55 85 59 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 84 56 85 60 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 78 55 81 58 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...39-ARONSON
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