509
FXUS64 KEPZ 050358
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
958 PM MDT SAT OCT 4 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 944 PM MDT SAT OCT 4 2025
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE WEEK.
- LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF
THE WEEK, FAVORING NORTHERN AREAS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 944 PM MDT SAT OCT 4 2025
AS THE UPPER TROUGH EXITS TO THE EAST TONIGHT, SKIES CLEAR OUT FOR
SUNDAY. SW FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP DRY AIR IN PLACE FOR THE SHORT-TERM
WITH SOME LINGERING MOISTURE AND MID CLOUDS OVER EASTERN AREAS.
WITH A SURFACE LOW SITTING OVER NE NM AND MODEST ISOBAR PACKING,
WINDS STAY ON THE BREEZY SIDE AT GENERALLY 10-15 MPH FOR THE
AFTERNOON, A BIT STRONGER OVER SIERRA COUNTY.
ON MONDAY, A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION, BRINGING
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO MIDWEEK. THE FRONT MAKES A SLOW PROGRESSION
WESTWARD THROUGH MIDWEEK, INCREASING PWS TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TUE/WED (1-1.1"); AVERAGE PWS ARE AROUND 0.6". RAIN CHANCES WILL
BE FAVORED IN NORTHERN AREAS MAINLY ON TUE WHERE DYNAMICS ARE
BETTER CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP AS WELL WITH SOME INSTABILITY PRESENT. MODESTLY BREEZY
E-SE WINDS (10-15 MPH) ARE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.
THE FORECAST TRENDS DRIER LATER IN THE WEEK AS THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLES
INDICATE THE ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE CENTRALIZING OVER NORTHERN MEXICO
FROM THE EAST. THIS WILL CAP MOST IF NOT ALL CONVECTION EVEN WITH
SOME LEFTOVER MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THE HIGH. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFTER WED. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO MODESTLY
BREEZY EACH DAY THROUGH THE FORECAST, MAINLY FROM THE EAST.
TEMPERATURES WON'T CHANGE MUCH BEHIND THE FRONT, UP TO 5 DEGREES
COOLER ON TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL REMAIN NEAR OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 944 PM MDT SAT OCT 4 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. GUSTINESS
FROM SW REDEVELOPS DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS NEAR 20KTS.
LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND LATE IN THE PERIOD AOB 10KTS.
MAINLY SKC EXPECTED WITH FEW-SCT100 HANGING AROUND KELP TONIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1156 AM MDT SAT OCT 4 2025
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER TOMORROW AFTERNOON IN THE LOWLANDS OF SIERRA
COUNTY AS MIN RH VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 15-18% COMBINED WITH BREEZY
CONDITIONS WITH 20 FOOT WINDS OF 10-15 MPH IN THAT VICINITY. LOW
FIRE DANGER ELSEWHERE ON SUNDAY AS MIN RHS 18-24% IN THE LOWLANDS
AND 35-45% IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH SOUTHWEST 20 FT WINDS OF 5-10 MPH.
WIND SPEEDS THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE GENERALLY 5-10 MPH EACH
AFTERNOON AND MIN RHS STAY ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS EACH AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 89 66 92 70 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 85 59 87 60 / 10 10 0 0
LAS CRUCES 85 58 86 62 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 85 60 87 62 / 0 10 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 62 44 64 46 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 83 54 84 58 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 77 51 79 55 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 87 55 88 61 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 83 55 85 60 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 86 66 89 70 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 88 61 90 62 / 10 10 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 91 67 93 68 / 10 10 0 0
LOMA LINDA 80 61 82 62 / 0 10 0 0
FABENS 89 64 92 67 / 0 10 0 0
SANTA TERESA 85 61 87 66 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 85 63 87 65 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 84 58 86 62 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 86 55 89 60 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 88 59 87 65 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 83 58 86 63 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 75 49 75 50 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 75 48 77 50 / 10 0 0 0
TIMBERON 72 48 73 49 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 77 44 78 48 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 82 53 84 57 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 83 54 85 59 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 77 45 79 49 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 80 50 82 55 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 83 51 85 56 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 78 48 81 52 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 79 53 81 58 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 84 55 86 59 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 84 55 85 59 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 85 55 85 59 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 78 54 80 58 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...39-ARONSON
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