578
FXUS64 KEPZ 051136 AAA
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
536 AM MDT SUN OCT 5 2025
..NEW AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 528 AM MDT SUN OCT 5 2025
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE WEEK.
- LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF
THE WEEK, FAVORING NORTHERN AREAS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 944 PM MDT SAT OCT 4 2025
AS THE UPPER TROUGH EXITS TO THE EAST TONIGHT, SKIES CLEAR OUT FOR
SUNDAY. SW FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP DRY AIR IN PLACE FOR THE SHORT-TERM
WITH SOME LINGERING MOISTURE AND MID CLOUDS OVER EASTERN AREAS.
WITH A SURFACE LOW SITTING OVER NE NM AND MODEST ISOBAR PACKING,
WINDS STAY ON THE BREEZY SIDE AT GENERALLY 10-15 MPH FOR THE
AFTERNOON, A BIT STRONGER OVER SIERRA COUNTY.
ON MONDAY, A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION, BRINGING
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO MIDWEEK. THE FRONT MAKES A SLOW PROGRESSION
WESTWARD THROUGH MIDWEEK, INCREASING PWS TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TUE/WED (1-1.1"); AVERAGE PWS ARE AROUND 0.6". RAIN CHANCES WILL
BE FAVORED IN NORTHERN AREAS MAINLY ON TUE WHERE DYNAMICS ARE
BETTER CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP AS WELL WITH SOME INSTABILITY PRESENT. MODESTLY BREEZY
E-SE WINDS (10-15 MPH) ARE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.
THE FORECAST TRENDS DRIER LATER IN THE WEEK AS THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLES
INDICATE THE ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE CENTRALIZING OVER NORTHERN MEXICO
FROM THE EAST. THIS WILL CAP MOST IF NOT ALL CONVECTION EVEN WITH
SOME LEFTOVER MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THE HIGH. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFTER WED. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO MODESTLY
BREEZY EACH DAY THROUGH THE FORECAST, MAINLY FROM THE EAST.
TEMPERATURES WON'T CHANGE MUCH BEHIND THE FRONT, UP TO 5 DEGREES
COOLER ON TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL REMAIN NEAR OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 528 AM MDT SUN OCT 5 2025
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD WITH TYPICAL
AFTN BREEZES.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 528 AM MDT SUN OCT 5 2025
DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST AGAIN TODAY. LOCALIZED
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL FAVOR THE NORTHERN PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY, WHERE MINRH WILL FALL BELOW 15 PERCENT
IN THE PRESENCE OF WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 TO 30 MPH. MOISTURE WILL
IMPROVE SLIGHTLY EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEK, BRINGING ALL ZONES
ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL
INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT SURGES
SOUTHWARD AND WESTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS. BREEZY EASTERLY WINDS
WILL PREVAIL DURING THE DAY BUT MUCH-IMPROVED HUMIDITY WILL HELP
TO TEMPER ANY ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. VERY ISOLATED
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS FAVORING THE HIGH TERRAIN THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 66 92 70 89 / 0 0 10 10
SIERRA BLANCA 59 87 60 85 / 0 0 0 10
LAS CRUCES 58 86 62 84 / 0 0 10 10
ALAMOGORDO 60 87 62 84 / 0 0 10 10
CLOUDCROFT 44 64 46 61 / 0 10 10 30
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 54 84 58 81 / 0 0 10 10
SILVER CITY 51 79 55 78 / 0 0 10 10
DEMING 55 88 61 88 / 0 0 10 10
LORDSBURG 55 85 60 85 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 66 89 70 87 / 0 0 10 10
DELL CITY 61 90 62 86 / 0 0 0 10
FORT HANCOCK 67 93 68 91 / 0 0 0 10
LOMA LINDA 61 82 62 80 / 0 0 10 10
FABENS 64 92 67 89 / 0 0 0 10
SANTA TERESA 61 87 66 86 / 0 0 10 10
WHITE SANDS HQ 63 87 65 85 / 0 0 10 10
JORNADA RANGE 58 86 62 84 / 0 0 10 10
HATCH 55 89 60 87 / 0 0 10 10
COLUMBUS 59 87 65 88 / 0 0 10 10
OROGRANDE 58 86 63 83 / 0 0 10 10
MAYHILL 49 75 50 70 / 0 10 10 30
MESCALERO 48 77 50 73 / 0 10 10 30
TIMBERON 48 73 49 70 / 0 0 10 20
WINSTON 44 78 48 76 / 0 0 10 20
HILLSBORO 53 84 57 82 / 0 0 10 10
SPACEPORT 54 85 59 84 / 0 0 10 10
LAKE ROBERTS 45 79 49 79 / 0 0 10 10
HURLEY 50 82 55 81 / 0 0 10 10
CLIFF 51 85 56 86 / 0 0 0 10
MULE CREEK 48 81 52 83 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 53 81 58 80 / 0 0 10 10
ANIMAS 55 86 59 87 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 55 85 59 86 / 0 0 0 10
ANTELOPE WELLS 55 85 59 86 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 54 80 58 82 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...99
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