435
FXUS64 KEPZ 052332
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
532 PM MDT SUN OCT 5 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 511 PM MDT SUN OCT 5 2025
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
WEEK.
- LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF
THE WEEK, FAVORING NORTHERN AREAS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1050 AM MDT SUN OCT 5 2025
THIS MORNING'S UL PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS IS A LONG-WAVE TROUGH
WEST AND RIDGE EAST. THIS PLACES SOUTHERN NM AND FAR WEST TX AT
THE FRONT BASE OF THE TROUGH BENEATH DEEP ALBEIT WEAK SW FLOW.
THIS IS A WARM AND DRY PATTERN THOUGH ENOUGH OF A SUBTROPICAL TAP
LINGERS FOR ALTO-CU AND CU DEVELOPMENT. SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGH
ACROSS NM WILL LIMIT WINDS AS WELL, WITH JUST MILD AFTERNOON
BREEZES. WE STAY IN THIS PATTERN THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY.
STARTING TUESDAY, FLOW WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY EASTERLY, ALLOWING
MORE MOISTURE TO ARRIVE. THE GFS AND NAM TAKE THIS BOUNDARY TO
THE AZ BORDER WHILE THE EURO STALLS THIS BOUNDARY ALONG THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY. THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE AS WELL AS SURFACE
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WILL INTRODUCE RAIN CHANCES TO THE
FORECAST THOUGH COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED THANKS TO WEAK TO
NEGATIVE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT VIA WEAK RIDGING. RAIN CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY THOUGH FAVORING THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA.
UL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS CHIHUAHUA AND NM BY THURSDAY WITH THIS
PATTERN HOLDING INTO SATURDAY. THERE WILL BE MOISTURE WORKING
ITSELF AROUND THE PERIMETER OF THE RIDGE, ALLOWING FOR LOW RAIN
CHANCES NEXT WEEKEND FOR AREAS WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD
ALTHOUGH A STRONGER FRONTAL INTRUSION ON TUESDAY WOULD BRING HIGHS
CLOSER TO NORMAL.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 532 PM MDT SUN OCT 5 2025
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MOSTLY SKC. EAST
OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...SCT-BKN100 UNTIL 03Z, THEN SKC. SURFACE
WINDS SOUTHWEST 8-12G18 KNOTS UNTIL ABOUT 03Z, THEN BECOMING
VARIABLE AOB 7 KNOTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1050 AM MDT SUN OCT 5 2025
THIS AFTERNOON WILL FEATURE THE DRIEST CONDITIONS AS MUCH OF THE
LOWLANDS FALL BELOW 15% RH, BUT MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
FOR MONDAY AND MORESO FOR TUESDAY. THE GILA WILL SEE MIN RH VALUES
AROUND 15%, BUT ELSEWHERE VALUES WILL RANGE IN THE UPPER TEENS
AND LOWER 20S FOR MONDAY, INCREASING TO THE MID TO UPPER 20S AREA
WIDE FOR TUESDAY. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE RELATIVELY LIGHT,
PEAKING AT AROUND 10 MPH EACH AFTERNOON. VENTING WILL RANGE FAIR
TO VERY GOOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 66 91 69 89 / 0 0 0 10
SIERRA BLANCA 59 87 59 84 / 10 0 0 10
LAS CRUCES 57 86 62 84 / 0 0 0 10
ALAMOGORDO 59 87 62 84 / 0 0 10 20
CLOUDCROFT 44 65 46 60 / 0 10 10 30
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 54 84 58 81 / 0 0 10 20
SILVER CITY 51 78 55 78 / 0 0 0 10
DEMING 54 88 61 87 / 0 0 0 10
LORDSBURG 54 84 61 86 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 66 88 69 86 / 0 0 0 10
DELL CITY 60 89 62 85 / 0 0 0 10
FORT HANCOCK 65 93 68 91 / 10 0 0 10
LOMA LINDA 59 83 61 79 / 0 0 0 10
FABENS 63 91 67 89 / 0 0 0 10
SANTA TERESA 62 87 66 86 / 0 0 0 10
WHITE SANDS HQ 62 87 65 84 / 0 0 10 20
JORNADA RANGE 57 86 62 83 / 0 0 10 10
HATCH 55 88 61 86 / 0 0 0 10
COLUMBUS 58 88 65 88 / 0 0 0 10
OROGRANDE 58 86 63 82 / 0 0 10 10
MAYHILL 48 75 49 69 / 0 10 10 40
MESCALERO 48 77 50 72 / 0 10 10 30
TIMBERON 48 73 49 69 / 0 10 10 30
WINSTON 44 78 48 75 / 0 0 0 20
HILLSBORO 53 84 56 82 / 0 0 10 10
SPACEPORT 52 85 59 82 / 0 0 10 20
LAKE ROBERTS 45 79 48 79 / 0 0 0 20
HURLEY 50 81 55 81 / 0 0 0 10
CLIFF 51 86 55 86 / 0 0 0 10
MULE CREEK 48 81 51 83 / 0 0 0 10
FAYWOOD 53 81 59 80 / 0 0 0 10
ANIMAS 54 86 60 86 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 54 84 59 84 / 0 0 0 10
ANTELOPE WELLS 54 85 60 86 / 0 0 0 10
CLOVERDALE 54 80 59 81 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...17-HEFNER
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