527
FXUS64 KEPZ 060420
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1020 PM MDT SUN OCT 5 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 907 PM MDT SUN OCT 5 2025
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
WEEK.
- LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF
THE WEEK, FAVORING NORTHERN AREAS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1016 PM MDT SUN OCT 5 2025
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH CONTINUES FROM CENTRAL CANADA DOWN
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN TO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. THIS HAS ALLOWED A
RATHER PERSISTENT DRY, SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE CWA FOR SEVERAL
DAYS. MODELS DO CONTINUE TO SHOW MOISTURE ADVECTION BEGINNING
MONDAY NIGHT AND MORE IN EARNEST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HURRICANE
PRISCILLA, THOUGHT NOT SHARING ANY MOISTURE WITH US (YET) IS
HELPING THE UPPER PATTERN BY ALLOWING SUB-TROPICAL HIGH TO BUILD
BACK OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. THIS WILL ALLOW MID-LEVEL (700-500 MB)
FLOW TO TURN MORE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AND BRING MOISTURE IN. AT THE
SURFACE THE EAST/SOUTHEAST FLOW BRINGS A DRY (WET) LINE IN, AGAIN
SOMEWHAT ON MONDAY NIGHT BUT MORE SIGNIFICANTLY ON TUESDAY. THUS A
FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD BREAK OUT EAST OF THE RG VALLEY
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME OF THE CAMS MODELS SHOW
THIS SOLUTION. GRIDS ARE STARTING TO REFLECT THIS, THOUGH FUTURE
SHIFTS MIGHT WANT TO INCREASE THIS. EXPECT SOME POPS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SUB-TROPICAL HIGH CONTINUES BUILDING WEST
AND CENTERING OVER WEST TEXAS BY LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS
SHOULD HELP PUSH THE MAIN MOISTURE PLUME NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CWA, ALLOWING POPS TO APPROACH ZERO.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE LAST SHORT-WAVE OR TWO OUT OF THE
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH IS ABLE TO BANG INTO THE MEXICAN HIGH AND
BEGIN DISPLACING IT EASTWARD SOME. THUS, THE MAIN MOISTURE PLUME
MIGRATES EASTWARD BACK OVER THE CWA, FOR INCREASING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. SOME DIFFERENCE BETWEEN GFS/ECMWF WITH
TIMING. ECMWF IS EARLIER, SUGGESTING RAIN COULD DEVELOP SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WHILE ENDING BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. ON THE OTHER HAND
THE SLOWER GFS BEGINS THE RAIN OUT WEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
SPREADING EASTWARD LATER IN THE DAY, AND LASTING WELL PAST MONDAY.
GFS ALSO MORE EXPLICIT THAN ECMWF IN SHOWING MOISTURE FROM NEXT
TROPICAL SYSTEM (RAYMOND) PLAYING A ROLE IN OUR WEATHER AFTER
SUNDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1016 PM MDT SUN OCT 5 2025
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MOSTLY SKC. EAST
OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...SCT-BKN100 DISSIPATING NEXT FEW HOURS,
THEN SKC. AFTER 18Z EAST OF THE RG VALLEY...SCT-BKN090 REFORMING,
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A BKN070 -SHRA OVER THE SACRAMENTO MTNS.
SURFACE WINDS VARIABLE AOB 7 KNOTS BECOMING SOUTHWEST 8-12 KNOTS
AFTER 18Z.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1050 AM MDT SUN OCT 5 2025
THIS AFTERNOON WILL FEATURE THE DRIEST CONDITIONS AS MUCH OF THE
LOWLANDS FALL BELOW 15% RH, BUT MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
FOR MONDAY AND MORESO FOR TUESDAY. THE GILA WILL SEE MIN RH VALUES
AROUND 15%, BUT ELSEWHERE VALUES WILL RANGE IN THE UPPER TEENS
AND LOWER 20S FOR MONDAY, INCREASING TO THE MID TO UPPER 20S AREA
WIDE FOR TUESDAY. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE RELATIVELY LIGHT,
PEAKING AT AROUND 10 MPH EACH AFTERNOON. VENTING WILL RANGE FAIR
TO VERY GOOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 91 69 88 68 / 0 0 0 10
SIERRA BLANCA 87 60 84 59 / 0 0 0 10
LAS CRUCES 86 63 84 62 / 0 0 0 10
ALAMOGORDO 87 62 83 60 / 0 0 0 10
CLOUDCROFT 65 45 59 43 / 0 0 10 10
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 85 58 81 59 / 0 0 0 10
SILVER CITY 78 55 79 56 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 88 61 88 63 / 0 0 0 10
LORDSBURG 84 60 85 64 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 88 69 86 68 / 0 0 0 10
DELL CITY 89 63 85 62 / 0 0 0 10
FORT HANCOCK 93 68 90 67 / 0 0 0 10
LOMA LINDA 83 62 79 60 / 0 10 0 10
FABENS 91 68 88 66 / 0 10 0 10
SANTA TERESA 87 66 85 66 / 0 0 0 10
WHITE SANDS HQ 87 66 84 64 / 0 0 0 10
JORNADA RANGE 86 63 83 62 / 0 0 0 10
HATCH 88 62 86 63 / 0 0 0 10
COLUMBUS 88 64 88 66 / 0 0 0 10
OROGRANDE 86 63 81 61 / 0 0 0 10
MAYHILL 75 50 67 49 / 0 0 10 10
MESCALERO 77 50 71 48 / 0 0 10 10
TIMBERON 73 50 67 47 / 0 0 10 10
WINSTON 78 48 75 50 / 0 0 0 10
HILLSBORO 84 57 82 56 / 0 0 0 10
SPACEPORT 85 59 82 59 / 0 0 0 10
LAKE ROBERTS 79 49 79 52 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 81 55 81 57 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 86 55 86 59 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 81 50 83 55 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 81 58 80 58 / 0 0 0 10
ANIMAS 86 60 87 63 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 85 60 85 63 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 85 60 87 61 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 80 60 82 60 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...17-HEFNER
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