202
FXUS64 KEPZ 061121
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
521 AM MDT MON OCT 6 2025
..NEW AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 503 AM MDT MON OCT 6 2025
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
WEEK.
- LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF
THE WEEK, FAVORING NORTHERN AREAS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1016 PM MDT SUN OCT 5 2025
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH CONTINUES FROM CENTRAL CANADA DOWN
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN TO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. THIS HAS ALLOWED A
RATHER PERSISTENT DRY, SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE CWA FOR SEVERAL
DAYS. MODELS DO CONTINUE TO SHOW MOISTURE ADVECTION BEGINNING
MONDAY NIGHT AND MORE IN EARNEST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HURRICANE
PRISCILLA, THOUGHT NOT SHARING ANY MOISTURE WITH US (YET) IS
HELPING THE UPPER PATTERN BY ALLOWING SUB-TROPICAL HIGH TO BUILD
BACK OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. THIS WILL ALLOW MID-LEVEL (700-500 MB)
FLOW TO TURN MORE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AND BRING MOISTURE IN. AT THE
SURFACE THE EAST/SOUTHEAST FLOW BRINGS A DRY (WET) LINE IN, AGAIN
SOMEWHAT ON MONDAY NIGHT BUT MORE SIGNIFICANTLY ON TUESDAY. THUS A
FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD BREAK OUT EAST OF THE RG VALLEY
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME OF THE CAMS MODELS SHOW
THIS SOLUTION. GRIDS ARE STARTING TO REFLECT THIS, THOUGH FUTURE
SHIFTS MIGHT WANT TO INCREASE THIS. EXPECT SOME POPS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SUB-TROPICAL HIGH CONTINUES BUILDING WEST
AND CENTERING OVER WEST TEXAS BY LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS
SHOULD HELP PUSH THE MAIN MOISTURE PLUME NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CWA, ALLOWING POPS TO APPROACH ZERO.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE LAST SHORT-WAVE OR TWO OUT OF THE
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH IS ABLE TO BANG INTO THE MEXICAN HIGH AND
BEGIN DISPLACING IT EASTWARD SOME. THUS, THE MAIN MOISTURE PLUME
MIGRATES EASTWARD BACK OVER THE CWA, FOR INCREASING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. SOME DIFFERENCE BETWEEN GFS/ECMWF WITH
TIMING. ECMWF IS EARLIER, SUGGESTING RAIN COULD DEVELOP SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WHILE ENDING BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. ON THE OTHER HAND
THE SLOWER GFS BEGINS THE RAIN OUT WEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
SPREADING EASTWARD LATER IN THE DAY, AND LASTING WELL PAST MONDAY.
GFS ALSO MORE EXPLICIT THAN ECMWF IN SHOWING MOISTURE FROM NEXT
TROPICAL SYSTEM (RAYMOND) PLAYING A ROLE IN OUR WEATHER AFTER
SUNDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 503 AM MDT MON OCT 6 2025
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SKIES THIS MORNING
WILL BE SKC TO FEW, WITH FEW TO SCT CU DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND EAST
OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS LIGHT AND VRB THIS
MORNING, BECOMING SOUTHERLY AT 7-12 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 503 AM MDT MON OCT 6 2025
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE LOW WITH LOW FIRE WEATHER DANGER. MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY FROM EAST TO WEST WITH MIN RH VALUES
ALONG AND EAST OF THE RGV GREATER THAN 20 PERCENT, ABOVE 40 PERCENT
FOR SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS. MIN RH VALUES WILL BE BETWEEN 15 TO 20
PERCENT WEST OF THE RGV. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND TERRAIN DRIVEN THROUGH
THE MORNING, BECOMING SOUTHERLY AT 7-15 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON.
AFTERNOON VENT RATES WILL RANGE FROM GOOD TO VERY GOOD ACROSS THE
AREA.
AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEK
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON, FAVORING
THE HIGH TERRAIN.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 69 88 68 85 / 10 10 20 10
SIERRA BLANCA 60 84 59 80 / 10 10 10 10
LAS CRUCES 63 84 62 82 / 10 10 20 10
ALAMOGORDO 62 83 60 82 / 10 20 30 20
CLOUDCROFT 45 59 43 59 / 10 30 30 20
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 58 81 59 78 / 10 20 30 20
SILVER CITY 55 79 56 75 / 0 10 20 20
DEMING 61 88 63 84 / 10 10 20 20
LORDSBURG 60 85 64 83 / 0 10 10 10
WEST EL PASO METRO 69 86 68 83 / 10 10 20 10
DELL CITY 63 85 62 82 / 10 10 10 10
FORT HANCOCK 68 90 67 87 / 10 10 10 10
LOMA LINDA 62 79 60 76 / 10 10 20 10
FABENS 68 88 66 85 / 10 10 10 10
SANTA TERESA 66 85 66 82 / 10 10 20 10
WHITE SANDS HQ 66 84 64 82 / 10 20 20 20
JORNADA RANGE 63 83 62 81 / 10 20 30 20
HATCH 62 86 63 83 / 10 20 30 20
COLUMBUS 64 88 66 85 / 10 10 20 10
OROGRANDE 63 81 61 80 / 10 10 20 10
MAYHILL 50 67 49 68 / 10 30 30 30
MESCALERO 50 71 48 71 / 20 30 40 30
TIMBERON 50 67 47 68 / 10 20 30 20
WINSTON 48 75 50 72 / 10 20 30 30
HILLSBORO 57 82 56 78 / 10 20 30 20
SPACEPORT 59 82 59 80 / 10 20 30 20
LAKE ROBERTS 49 79 52 75 / 10 20 30 30
HURLEY 55 81 57 77 / 0 10 20 20
CLIFF 55 86 59 83 / 0 10 20 20
MULE CREEK 50 83 55 80 / 0 10 10 20
FAYWOOD 58 80 58 77 / 10 20 20 20
ANIMAS 60 87 63 84 / 0 0 10 10
HACHITA 60 85 63 83 / 0 10 20 10
ANTELOPE WELLS 60 87 61 84 / 0 10 10 10
CLOVERDALE 60 82 60 80 / 0 10 10 10
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...38-ROGERS
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