821
FXUS64 KEPZ 061759
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1159 AM MDT MON OCT 6 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1158 AM MDT MON OCT 6 2025
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
WEEK.
- LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE, FAVORING NORTHERN AND
EASTERN AREAS.
- DRIER CONDITIONS FOR LATE IN THE WEEK BEFORE MOISTURE RETURNS
FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1158 AM MDT MON OCT 6 2025
MODELS ARE ACTUALLY IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MAIN
SYNOPTIC FEATURES OVER THE NEXT WEEK. FOR GOING INTO MID OCTOBER,
IT IS NOT AS PROGRESSIVE AS YOU WOULD THINK, IN FACT, IT'S
STAGNANT WITH A MEAN RIDGE SETTING UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL US WITH A
TROUGH/UPPER LOW OVER THE EAST AND WEST COASTS. THE EPZ CWA WILL
BE MAINLY IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AREA OF THIS WHILE AT THE SURFACE
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDING INTO THE AREA WHICH WILL BRING EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS AND AN INFLUX OF MOISTURE. THE MOISTURE STARTS PUSHING IN
TONIGHT WITH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EAST
OF THE RIO GRANDE. INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL KEEP
OVERNIGHT LOWS ABOVE LAST NIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE CWA EXCEPT IN THE
GILA REGION.
FOR TUE, SOUTHEAST WINDS PICK UP ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH DEW
POINTS GETTING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S. MODELS SHOWING NICE
SHEAR AROUND WITH 0-6KM VALUES GETTING INTO THE 35-45KT RANGE,
INSTABILITY WILL BE MINIMAL WITH MOST AREAS NOT GETTING MUCH ABOVE
300-500J/KG WITH A FAIRLY LOW LEVEL CAP AROUND 800MB THAT MAY KEEP
CONVECTION FROM FIRING UP IN THE AFTERNOON BESIDES OVER THE SACS.
AS WE MOVE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, THERE WILL BE SOME LIFT
MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH DUE TO CONVECTION OVER MEXICO. THERE WILL
STILL BE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY AROUND AND WITH SOME WEAK MID
LEVEL FLOW ABOVE A MODEST ESE LOW LEVEL FLOW. SOME TRAINING OF
STORMS IS POSSIBLE WITH SLOWER STORM MOTION WITH STORM CHANCES
ALMOST ALL AREAS WITH THE FOCUS EAST OF THE DIVIDE. BEST CHANCES
LOOK TO BE IN SIERRA AND NORTHERN OTERO COUNTIES. CAMS ARE ALL
SHOWING SOME QPF BULLSEYES OF 1-4" SOMEWHERE IN THESE AREAS. SO
FLASH FLOODING COULD BE A CONCERN. WITH THE SHEAR PRESENT, SOME
SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE, BUT THE LIMITING
FACTOR WILL BE THE INSTABILITY. A SIMILAR SETUP FOR WEDNESDAY BUT
WITH THE FOCUS SHIFTING MAINLY NORTH AS MORE STABLE AIR PUSHES
INTO THE SOUTHERN ZONES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLING SOMEWHAT
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S COMMON OVER THE LOWLANDS.
IF LOWER CLOUDS DON'T BURN OFF IN THE MORNING, COULD BE EVEN
COOLER, BUT THINK MET NUMBERS ARE A LITTLE TOO COOL WITH ONLY A
10-15 DEGREE DIURNAL RANGE.
THE AREA WILL BECOME MORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF UPPER HIGH
BUILDING AROUND THE BIG BEND AREA AND PUSH BEST MOISTURE WEST AND
NORTH TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. WE WILL SEE SOME WARMING AGAIN
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S BY FRI/SAT.
GOING INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK, MODELS CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE SOME REMNANT TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVING UP IN A COUPLE OF
SURGES AS ONE TROUGH LIFTS OUT OF THE WEST COAST AND ANOTHER MOVES
IN TO REPLACE IT. THIS WILL BRING BACK RAIN CHANCES TO THE REGION,
MAINLY FOCUSED OUT WEST SAT/SUN WITH FIRST PUSH, BUT THEN GOING
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, A MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCE FOR RAIN MOVES IN
AS A FAIRLY DEEP NE/SW ORIENTED TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT BASIN.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1158 AM MDT MON OCT 6 2025
P6SM FEW-SCT080-100 SCT-BKN200-250 DEVELOPING FOR MOST OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WILL BE FOCUSED
AROUND THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS, BUT AFTER 04Z, THERE WILL BE SOME
SHRA/-TSRA DEVELOPING AROUND THE RGV. CONFIDENCE IN THIS
DEVELOPING AT ANY TERMINAL IS LOW, BUT KLRU AND KELP COULD SEE
SOME ACTIVITY GOING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH EARLY ON BUT SHIFT AROUND TO THE NORTHEAST TO
EAST AT 5-15KTS OVER NIGHT AND THROUGH THE MORNING TUESDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1158 AM MDT MON OCT 6 2025
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE MOVING IN OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS
WHICH WILL RAISE MIN RH'S INTO THE 30S/40S BY WEDNESDAY. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH THE MAIN FOCUS IN THE MOUNTAINS NORTHERN AND
EASTERN AREAS. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY TUE
NIGHT. DRIER AIR, BUT WITH RH'S STILL ABOVE 20-25%, WILL RETURN BY
THE END OF THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK INTO THE MID
80S TO LOWER 90S. MORE MOISTURE WILL START TO PUSH BACK IN WITH
REMNANT TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVING IN FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC THIS
WEEKEND AND ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY TO
OCCASIONALLY WINDY STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH
FRIDAY FROM THE SOUTHEAST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 68 87 67 82 / 20 20 20 10
SIERRA BLANCA 59 82 58 77 / 10 10 10 10
LAS CRUCES 60 82 60 77 / 20 20 30 20
ALAMOGORDO 60 82 57 79 / 20 20 30 20
CLOUDCROFT 43 57 41 56 / 20 40 40 30
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 56 80 57 75 / 20 20 40 30
SILVER CITY 49 79 54 72 / 0 10 20 30
DEMING 59 85 62 81 / 10 10 30 20
LORDSBURG 58 86 62 79 / 0 10 10 20
WEST EL PASO METRO 67 85 66 80 / 20 20 20 10
DELL CITY 60 84 60 78 / 10 10 20 10
FORT HANCOCK 65 88 66 84 / 10 10 10 10
LOMA LINDA 59 77 58 73 / 10 20 20 10
FABENS 63 87 64 82 / 10 10 20 10
SANTA TERESA 63 84 64 80 / 20 20 20 10
WHITE SANDS HQ 62 82 62 79 / 20 20 30 20
JORNADA RANGE 61 82 59 77 / 20 20 30 20
HATCH 59 85 60 80 / 20 20 30 20
COLUMBUS 62 87 64 82 / 10 10 20 10
OROGRANDE 61 80 59 77 / 20 20 30 10
MAYHILL 48 66 46 65 / 20 40 40 30
MESCALERO 48 69 46 68 / 20 40 50 30
TIMBERON 45 66 45 64 / 20 30 30 20
WINSTON 44 74 47 69 / 10 20 30 30
HILLSBORO 54 80 54 76 / 10 20 40 30
SPACEPORT 56 81 57 76 / 20 20 40 20
LAKE ROBERTS 33 79 50 73 / 0 10 30 30
HURLEY 51 81 55 74 / 10 10 20 20
CLIFF 43 85 57 81 / 0 10 20 20
MULE CREEK 37 84 54 78 / 0 10 10 20
FAYWOOD 56 80 56 74 / 10 10 30 30
ANIMAS 58 87 60 81 / 0 0 10 10
HACHITA 58 86 60 79 / 10 10 20 20
ANTELOPE WELLS 57 87 59 81 / 0 10 10 10
CLOVERDALE 57 83 57 77 / 0 10 10 10
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...26-GRZYWACZ
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