134
FXUS64 KEPZ 070409
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1009 PM MDT MON OCT 6 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1008 PM MDT MON OCT 6 2025
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
WEEK.
- INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE, FAVORING
NORTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS.
- DRIER CONDITIONS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, POSSIBLY TRENDING
BACK UP SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1008 PM MDT MON OCT 6 2025
SATELLITE SHOWS POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH PERSISTING FROM THE
DAKOTAS DOWN ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN TO SOCAL. SOUTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUES OVER THE CWA. THE LAST OF THE HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FROM
OCTAVE IS STILL STREAMING OVER THE AREA. MEANWHILE FURTHER SOUTH,
HURRICANE PRISCILLA SLOWLY CHURNS NORTHWEST HUGGING THE PACIFIC
COAST OF THE BAJA. AS MENTIONED BEFORE, SHE STILL IS NOT
CONTRIBUTING ANY MOISTURE TO OUR AREA, BUT SHE HAS ALLOWED THE
SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO BUILD WEST ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO. UNDER
THIS WEAK FLOW WELL ALOFT, MID-LEVEL FLOW HAS TURNED EAST AND
SOUTHEAST, IMPORTING SOME MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF AMERICA. AT
THE SURFACE A QUASI-DRYLINE IS MOVING WEST INTO THE CWA. IT
CURRENTLY SITS IN THE FAR EASTERN CWA, BUT THE MODELS SHOWING IT
REACHING AT LEAST THE RG VALLEY BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND AT LEAST
TO THE CONT DIVIDE BY LATE AFTERNOON. THUS, THIS MOISTURE WHICH
HAS ALREADY FUELED A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING OVER
OTERO AND HUDSPETH COUNTIES SHOULD MOVE FURTHER WEST TUESDAY. WITH
MODEST CAPE VALUES AND MARGINAL SHEAR, SOME STORMS COULD BECOME
STRONG TO NEAR SEVERE. UNSEASONABLY HIGH PWS WILL ALSO MEAN STORMS
COULD PRODUCE SOME HEAVY RAIN, THOUGH STORM MOTION LOOKS TO BE
AROUND 15-20 MPH, HELPING MITIGATE SOME FLOOD POTENTIAL. WEDNESDAY
SHOULD CONTINUE WITH THIS MONSOON-ISH PATTERN; MORE RAIN AND
STORMS.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE FORMS A CLOSED HIGH
CENTER OVER WEST TEXAS. THIS WILL BEGIN TO SHUNT THE MOISTURE
PLUME MOSTLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA. SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN
COULD MATERIALIZE OUT WEST NEAR THE ARIZONA BORDER.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BOTH GFS/ECMWF SHOW PACIFIC TROUGH FINALLY
MAKING SOME INROADS EASTWARD, AND HELPING PUSH MOISTURE PLUME BACK
OVER OUR AREA, ALONG WITH DRAWING SOME MOISTURE UP FROM THE
TROPICAL SYSTEM-TO-BE RAYMOND. LOOKS LIKE MORE RAIN BOTH DAYS. GFS
EVEN BRINGS THE REMNANTS OF RAYMOND UP OVER OUR AREA TUESDAY. STAY
TUNED AS WITH MOST TROPICAL FEATURES, THE MODELS ARE BOUND TO
CHANGE SEVERAL MORE TIMES.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1008 PM MDT MON OCT 6 2025
GENERALLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH INCREASING BKN200-250.
ISOLATED BKN080 -SHRA OTERO AND HUDSPETH COUNTIES UNTIL AROUND
10Z. AFTER 18Z...INCREASING SCT-BKN100 BKN200 OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA, WITH ISOLATED BKN080CB -SHRA/-TSRA FROM THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY EAST. SURFACE WINDS VARIABLE AOB 7 KNOTS TIL AROUND 12Z,
THEN BECOMING EAST/SOUTHEAST 10-15 KNOTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1158 AM MDT MON OCT 6 2025
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE MOVING IN OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS
WHICH WILL RAISE MIN RH'S INTO THE 30S/40S BY WEDNESDAY. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH THE MAIN FOCUS IN THE MOUNTAINS NORTHERN AND
EASTERN AREAS. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY TUE
NIGHT. DRIER AIR, BUT WITH RH'S STILL ABOVE 20-25%, WILL RETURN BY
THE END OF THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK INTO THE MID
80S TO LOWER 90S. MORE MOISTURE WILL START TO PUSH BACK IN WITH
REMNANT TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVING IN FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC THIS
WEEKEND AND ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY TO
OCCASIONALLY WINDY STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH
FRIDAY FROM THE SOUTHEAST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 89 69 84 67 / 10 10 20 30
SIERRA BLANCA 84 59 79 57 / 10 10 10 10
LAS CRUCES 84 63 80 61 / 10 10 20 40
ALAMOGORDO 83 60 81 60 / 10 10 30 50
CLOUDCROFT 59 44 57 43 / 20 10 40 50
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 81 60 78 59 / 0 0 30 40
SILVER CITY 79 56 74 56 / 0 0 10 20
DEMING 88 64 83 63 / 0 10 20 30
LORDSBURG 86 63 82 64 / 0 0 10 10
WEST EL PASO METRO 87 68 82 67 / 10 10 20 30
DELL CITY 85 62 81 60 / 10 10 10 20
FORT HANCOCK 91 67 86 65 / 10 10 10 10
LOMA LINDA 79 60 74 58 / 20 10 20 20
FABENS 89 66 85 65 / 10 10 10 20
SANTA TERESA 86 65 81 64 / 10 10 20 30
WHITE SANDS HQ 84 63 81 62 / 10 10 20 40
JORNADA RANGE 83 62 80 60 / 10 10 30 50
HATCH 86 62 83 61 / 10 10 30 40
COLUMBUS 89 65 84 65 / 0 0 20 30
OROGRANDE 81 61 79 60 / 10 10 20 40
MAYHILL 67 49 67 48 / 20 10 50 50
MESCALERO 71 49 70 47 / 20 10 50 60
TIMBERON 68 47 67 47 / 20 10 40 40
WINSTON 74 50 71 50 / 0 0 20 30
HILLSBORO 81 56 77 57 / 0 10 20 40
SPACEPORT 82 58 79 58 / 10 10 40 50
LAKE ROBERTS 79 52 75 51 / 0 0 10 30
HURLEY 81 58 76 57 / 0 0 10 20
CLIFF 86 60 83 60 / 0 0 10 20
MULE CREEK 83 56 80 56 / 0 0 10 10
FAYWOOD 80 58 76 58 / 0 0 20 30
ANIMAS 87 63 83 63 / 0 0 10 10
HACHITA 86 62 81 62 / 0 0 10 20
ANTELOPE WELLS 87 61 82 61 / 0 0 10 20
CLOVERDALE 82 60 79 60 / 0 0 10 10
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...17-HEFNER
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