290
FXUS64 KEPZ 071223
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
623 AM MDT TUE OCT 7 2025
..NEW AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 615 AM MDT TUE OCT 7 2025
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
WEEK.
- INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE, FAVORING
NORTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS.
- DRIER CONDITIONS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, POSSIBLY TRENDING
BACK UP SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1008 PM MDT MON OCT 6 2025
SATELLITE SHOWS POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH PERSISTING FROM THE
DAKOTAS DOWN ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN TO SOCAL. SOUTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUES OVER THE CWA. THE LAST OF THE HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FROM
OCTAVE IS STILL STREAMING OVER THE AREA. MEANWHILE FURTHER SOUTH,
HURRICANE PRISCILLA SLOWLY CHURNS NORTHWEST HUGGING THE PACIFIC
COAST OF THE BAJA. AS MENTIONED BEFORE, SHE STILL IS NOT
CONTRIBUTING ANY MOISTURE TO OUR AREA, BUT SHE HAS ALLOWED THE
SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO BUILD WEST ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO. UNDER
THIS WEAK FLOW WELL ALOFT, MID-LEVEL FLOW HAS TURNED EAST AND
SOUTHEAST, IMPORTING SOME MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF AMERICA. AT
THE SURFACE A QUASI-DRYLINE IS MOVING WEST INTO THE CWA. IT
CURRENTLY SITS IN THE FAR EASTERN CWA, BUT THE MODELS SHOWING IT
REACHING AT LEAST THE RG VALLEY BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND AT LEAST
TO THE CONT DIVIDE BY LATE AFTERNOON. THUS, THIS MOISTURE WHICH
HAS ALREADY FUELED A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING OVER
OTERO AND HUDSPETH COUNTIES SHOULD MOVE FURTHER WEST TUESDAY. WITH
MODEST CAPE VALUES AND MARGINAL SHEAR, SOME STORMS COULD BECOME
STRONG TO NEAR SEVERE. UNSEASONABLY HIGH PWS WILL ALSO MEAN STORMS
COULD PRODUCE SOME HEAVY RAIN, THOUGH STORM MOTION LOOKS TO BE
AROUND 15-20 MPH, HELPING MITIGATE SOME FLOOD POTENTIAL. WEDNESDAY
SHOULD CONTINUE WITH THIS MONSOON-ISH PATTERN; MORE RAIN AND
STORMS.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE FORMS A CLOSED HIGH
CENTER OVER WEST TEXAS. THIS WILL BEGIN TO SHUNT THE MOISTURE
PLUME MOSTLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA. SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN
COULD MATERIALIZE OUT WEST NEAR THE ARIZONA BORDER.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BOTH GFS/ECMWF SHOW PACIFIC TROUGH FINALLY
MAKING SOME INROADS EASTWARD, AND HELPING PUSH MOISTURE PLUME BACK
OVER OUR AREA, ALONG WITH DRAWING SOME MOISTURE UP FROM THE
TROPICAL SYSTEM-TO-BE RAYMOND. LOOKS LIKE MORE RAIN BOTH DAYS. GFS
EVEN BRINGS THE REMNANTS OF RAYMOND UP OVER OUR AREA TUESDAY. STAY
TUNED AS WITH MOST TROPICAL FEATURES, THE MODELS ARE BOUND TO
CHANGE SEVERAL MORE TIMES.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 615 AM MDT TUE OCT 7 2025
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS EARLY AS
20Z AT LRU AND ELP, BUT MORE LIKELY TONIGHT AFTER 00-01Z. CEILINGS
WILL REMAIN IN THE VFR RANGE, BUT BRIEF PERIODS OF VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE MORE LIKELY IN ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 615 AM MDT TUE OCT 7 2025
LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY, WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AND THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS. QUIETER
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, BUT HUMIDITY LEVELS
WILL NOT DROP OFF MUCH. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LOOK TO
RETURN LATE SATURDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A MORE ACTIVE
PATTERN SETS UP.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 69 84 67 85 / 40 10 20 0
SIERRA BLANCA 59 79 57 80 / 20 10 0 10
LAS CRUCES 63 80 61 81 / 50 10 20 10
ALAMOGORDO 60 81 60 81 / 30 20 10 0
CLOUDCROFT 44 57 43 58 / 60 30 10 10
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 60 78 59 76 / 40 20 30 10
SILVER CITY 56 74 56 73 / 20 30 30 20
DEMING 64 83 63 83 / 30 20 20 10
LORDSBURG 63 82 64 81 / 10 10 20 10
WEST EL PASO METRO 68 82 67 83 / 40 10 20 0
DELL CITY 62 81 60 83 / 20 10 10 0
FORT HANCOCK 67 86 65 87 / 30 10 0 0
LOMA LINDA 60 74 58 76 / 30 10 10 0
FABENS 66 85 65 86 / 30 0 10 0
SANTA TERESA 65 81 64 82 / 50 10 20 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 63 81 62 81 / 40 10 20 10
JORNADA RANGE 62 80 60 79 / 30 20 20 10
HATCH 62 83 61 82 / 30 20 20 10
COLUMBUS 65 84 65 85 / 30 10 20 10
OROGRANDE 61 79 60 79 / 40 10 20 0
MAYHILL 49 67 48 68 / 60 30 10 10
MESCALERO 49 70 47 71 / 60 30 20 10
TIMBERON 47 67 47 67 / 50 20 10 10
WINSTON 50 71 50 70 / 40 40 30 20
HILLSBORO 56 77 57 76 / 40 30 30 10
SPACEPORT 58 79 58 79 / 30 20 20 10
LAKE ROBERTS 52 75 51 75 / 20 40 30 20
HURLEY 58 76 57 76 / 20 30 30 10
CLIFF 60 83 60 81 / 10 30 30 20
MULE CREEK 56 80 56 77 / 20 30 30 20
FAYWOOD 58 76 58 75 / 20 30 30 10
ANIMAS 63 83 63 83 / 10 10 20 10
HACHITA 62 81 62 81 / 20 10 20 10
ANTELOPE WELLS 61 82 61 84 / 30 10 20 10
CLOVERDALE 60 79 60 79 / 10 10 20 10
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...25-HARDIMAN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page