767
FXUS64 KEPZ 071813
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1213 PM MDT TUE OCT 7 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1212 AM MDT TUE OCT 7 2025
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY
BEFORE COOLING DOWN GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE, FAVORING
NORTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS.
- DRIER CONDITIONS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, TRENDING BACK UP
SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH SOME REMNANT TROPICAL MOISTURE TRYING
TO MOVE INTO THE AREA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1212 AM MDT TUE OCT 7 2025
A FAIRLY STAGNANT PATTERN, ESPECIALLY EARLY ON WITH A TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN US, A RIDGE CENTRAL AND A TROUGH WEST. THIS WILL
SLOWLY PROGRESS EASTWARD GOING INTO NEXT WEEK, BUT FOR THE
BORDERLAND, THIS WILL LEAD TO A GENERAL SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL
FLOW. THERE WAS AN INITIAL PUSH OF COOLER/MOIST AIR LAST NIGHT
THAT MADE IT TO THE RGV BUT HAS SINCE STARTED TO MAKE IT TO THE
AZ BORDER. MOISTURE OVER THE AREA IS ABOVE NORMAL WITH PW'S
GETTING INTO THE 1"-1.25" RANGE OVER MUCH OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
TONIGHT AND WED, THERE WILL BE SOME INSTABILITY AND SOME
DISTURBANCES MOVING OUT OF MEXICO ACROSS THE AREA THAT WILL
TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SEEING SOME CONVERGENCE OVER
THE RGV AREA AROUND H70 THIS EVENING AND THIS MAY BE THE FOCUS FOR
DEVELOPMENT WHICH WILL THEN PUSH NE. COULD SEE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN IF TRAINING DEVELOPS AS WELL AS A COUPLE STRONGER CELLS WITH
GOOD SHEAR OVER THE AREA. LOOKS LIKE THE MAIN TIMEFRAME WILL BE
TONIGHT, BUT SOME STORMS WILL LINGER OVER THE NORTH AND WEST
TOMORROW. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND HIGHER DEW POINTS ACROSS THE
REGION WILL KEEP LOWS WARMER THAN THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS,
ESPECIALLY WEST AND NORTH WHERE THE MOISTURE PUSH JUST MOVED IN.
HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER, MET
GUIDANCE IS MORE BULLISH ON KEEPING CLOUDS AROUND AND COOLER TEMPS
WHILE THE MAV AND NBM ARE MUCH WARMER. GOING TO EXPECT SOME EFFECT
FROM THE CLOUD COVER AND WENT BELOW NBM/MAV BUT ABOVE MET.
ONE ISSUE THAT WE WILL HAVE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE A
PERSISTENT EAST-SOUTHEAST WIND. THIS WILL BE MOST PRONOUNCED ON
WESTERN MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND ESPECIALLY OUT IN HIDALGO AND SOUTHERN
GRANT COUNTIES. THIS IS A PATTERN THAT WILL USUALLY BRING WINDS
OF 15-30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS ON THE LORDSBURG PLAYA, SO WE MAY
NEED TO MONITOR FOR SOME PATCHY DUST.
UPPER RIDGE WILL PREVAIL AND KEEP THE AREA DRY FOR THU/FRI WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 80S FOR MOST OF THE LOWLANDS. DURING
THIS TIME, HURRICANE PRISCILLA WILL BE MOVING NNW AND GET CAUGHT
UP IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST. IT
LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE
AREA, BUT WE WILL SEE SOME PRECIP RETURN STARTING SATURDAY WITH
THE BREAKDOWN OF THE UPPER RIDGE. THE QUESTION THEN BECOMES HOW
THE NEXT TROPICAL SYSTEM, POSSIBLY RAYMOND, WILL MOVE. THE GFS IS
MUCH SLOWER WITH THIS WHILE THE EC IS THE FASTER SOLUTION. EITHER
WAY, SOME OF THIS MOISTURE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA.
GFS TAKES IT'S TIME BRINGING IT THROUGH AND PUTS OUT 1-2" OF RAIN
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA SUN-TUE. AT THIS TIME IT'S TOO EARLY TO HAVE
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE SPEED THIS STORM WILL MOVE, SO WILL KEEP AT
LEAST CHANCE POPS GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1212 AM MDT TUE OCT 7 2025
BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 10-15G20-25KT WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SACRAMENTO MTNS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA AFTER 00Z FROM MEXICO. PROB30S
IN THE TAF FOR ALL TERMINALS TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE HIT AND MISS
STORMS OVERNIGHT. BREEZY EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS LATER THIS EVENING
CONTINUING OVERNIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1212 AM MDT TUE OCT 7 2025
FIRE WEATHER WILL NOT BE A BIG CONCERN OVER THE NEXT WEEK WITH A
PERSISTENT EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK KEEPING
RH'S IN THE 20S AND 30S. THERE WILL BE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY DRY WEATHER FOR THU/FRI. THE
BREAKDOWN OF AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BRING A SURGE OF MOISTURE FROM
THE WEST GOING INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SOME
WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS EXPECTED ALONG WITH HIGHER RH'S AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES. WINDS OVER THE I-10 CORRIDOR MAY BE A CONCERN
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 15-30MPH POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY WEST OF DEMING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 68 83 67 83 / 30 20 10 0
SIERRA BLANCA 59 78 59 78 / 10 10 0 10
LAS CRUCES 61 81 61 78 / 50 20 10 0
ALAMOGORDO 59 80 59 79 / 50 20 10 0
CLOUDCROFT 43 57 42 57 / 50 30 10 10
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 58 77 59 75 / 50 30 20 10
SILVER CITY 55 75 56 72 / 30 30 30 10
DEMING 63 82 64 81 / 40 20 20 10
LORDSBURG 62 81 64 81 / 10 20 20 10
WEST EL PASO METRO 67 82 67 81 / 30 20 10 0
DELL CITY 62 82 60 80 / 20 10 10 0
FORT HANCOCK 67 83 65 85 / 10 10 0 0
LOMA LINDA 60 75 59 74 / 30 10 0 0
FABENS 67 84 65 83 / 20 20 0 0
SANTA TERESA 64 82 64 80 / 40 20 10 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 62 80 63 78 / 50 20 10 0
JORNADA RANGE 61 80 60 78 / 50 20 10 10
HATCH 61 82 61 81 / 40 20 20 10
COLUMBUS 64 84 65 83 / 30 10 10 0
OROGRANDE 60 79 60 78 / 50 20 10 0
MAYHILL 48 65 48 66 / 50 30 10 10
MESCALERO 48 69 47 69 / 50 30 20 10
TIMBERON 47 66 47 65 / 50 20 10 10
WINSTON 49 71 50 68 / 40 40 30 20
HILLSBORO 56 77 57 76 / 50 30 20 10
SPACEPORT 57 79 58 77 / 50 30 20 10
LAKE ROBERTS 52 73 52 72 / 30 40 30 20
HURLEY 56 76 57 77 / 30 20 30 10
CLIFF 57 82 59 80 / 20 40 30 10
MULE CREEK 54 80 56 76 / 10 40 30 20
FAYWOOD 57 75 58 73 / 40 20 20 10
ANIMAS 62 83 63 81 / 10 10 20 10
HACHITA 62 81 62 79 / 20 10 20 10
ANTELOPE WELLS 61 82 61 81 / 20 10 20 10
CLOVERDALE 60 78 60 77 / 10 10 20 10
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...26-GRZYWACZ
AVIATION...37-SLUSHER
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