470
FXUS64 KEPZ 072332
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
532 PM MDT TUE OCT 7 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 525 PM MDT TUE OCT 7 2025
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY
BEFORE COOLING DOWN GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE, FAVORING
NORTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS.
- DRIER CONDITIONS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, TRENDING BACK UP
SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH SOME REMNANT TROPICAL MOISTURE TRYING
TO MOVE INTO THE AREA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1212 AM MDT TUE OCT 7 2025
A FAIRLY STAGNANT PATTERN, ESPECIALLY EARLY ON WITH A TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN US, A RIDGE CENTRAL AND A TROUGH WEST. THIS WILL
SLOWLY PROGRESS EASTWARD GOING INTO NEXT WEEK, BUT FOR THE
BORDERLAND, THIS WILL LEAD TO A GENERAL SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL
FLOW. THERE WAS AN INITIAL PUSH OF COOLER/MOIST AIR LAST NIGHT
THAT MADE IT TO THE RGV BUT HAS SINCE STARTED TO MAKE IT TO THE
AZ BORDER. MOISTURE OVER THE AREA IS ABOVE NORMAL WITH PW'S
GETTING INTO THE 1"-1.25" RANGE OVER MUCH OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
TONIGHT AND WED, THERE WILL BE SOME INSTABILITY AND SOME
DISTURBANCES MOVING OUT OF MEXICO ACROSS THE AREA THAT WILL
TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SEEING SOME CONVERGENCE OVER
THE RGV AREA AROUND H70 THIS EVENING AND THIS MAY BE THE FOCUS FOR
DEVELOPMENT WHICH WILL THEN PUSH NE. COULD SEE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN IF TRAINING DEVELOPS AS WELL AS A COUPLE STRONGER CELLS WITH
GOOD SHEAR OVER THE AREA. LOOKS LIKE THE MAIN TIMEFRAME WILL BE
TONIGHT, BUT SOME STORMS WILL LINGER OVER THE NORTH AND WEST
TOMORROW. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND HIGHER DEW POINTS ACROSS THE
REGION WILL KEEP LOWS WARMER THAN THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS,
ESPECIALLY WEST AND NORTH WHERE THE MOISTURE PUSH JUST MOVED IN.
HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER, MET
GUIDANCE IS MORE BULLISH ON KEEPING CLOUDS AROUND AND COOLER TEMPS
WHILE THE MAV AND NBM ARE MUCH WARMER. GOING TO EXPECT SOME EFFECT
FROM THE CLOUD COVER AND WENT BELOW NBM/MAV BUT ABOVE MET.
ONE ISSUE THAT WE WILL HAVE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE A
PERSISTENT EAST-SOUTHEAST WIND. THIS WILL BE MOST PRONOUNCED ON
WESTERN MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND ESPECIALLY OUT IN HIDALGO AND SOUTHERN
GRANT COUNTIES. THIS IS A PATTERN THAT WILL USUALLY BRING WINDS
OF 15-30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS ON THE LORDSBURG PLAYA, SO WE MAY
NEED TO MONITOR FOR SOME PATCHY DUST.
UPPER RIDGE WILL PREVAIL AND KEEP THE AREA DRY FOR THU/FRI WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 80S FOR MOST OF THE LOWLANDS. DURING
THIS TIME, HURRICANE PRISCILLA WILL BE MOVING NNW AND GET CAUGHT
UP IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST. IT
LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE
AREA, BUT WE WILL SEE SOME PRECIP RETURN STARTING SATURDAY WITH
THE BREAKDOWN OF THE UPPER RIDGE. THE QUESTION THEN BECOMES HOW
THE NEXT TROPICAL SYSTEM, POSSIBLY RAYMOND, WILL MOVE. THE GFS IS
MUCH SLOWER WITH THIS WHILE THE EC IS THE FASTER SOLUTION. EITHER
WAY, SOME OF THIS MOISTURE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA.
GFS TAKES IT'S TIME BRINGING IT THROUGH AND PUTS OUT 1-2" OF RAIN
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA SUN-TUE. AT THIS TIME IT'S TOO EARLY TO HAVE
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE SPEED THIS STORM WILL MOVE, SO WILL KEEP AT
LEAST CHANCE POPS GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 525 PM MDT TUE OCT 7 2025
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS DEVELOPING N-S NEAR KLRU TO BEGIN THE
PERIOD BEHIND A SLOW-MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT'S PUSHING WEST
TOWARDS KDMN. TS ARE MOST LIKELY TO IMPACT KLRU THIS EVENING WITH
LOWER CONFIDENCE FOR THE OTHER TERMINALS. RADAR TRENDS WILL BE
MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE AMENDMENTS, BUT ALL TAF SITES HAVE A
MENTION OF VCSH OR VCTS. STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTS
TO 30KTS, SMALL HAIL, AND HEAVY RAIN. THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
TO MOSTLY DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT, BUT THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF
REDEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. GUSTINESS LINGERS EARLY
THIS EVENING FROM ESE AND AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON TO NEAR 20KTS.
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED TONIGHT OUTSIDE OF GUSTY OUTFLOWS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1212 AM MDT TUE OCT 7 2025
FIRE WEATHER WILL NOT BE A BIG CONCERN OVER THE NEXT WEEK WITH A
PERSISTENT EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK KEEPING
RH'S IN THE 20S AND 30S. THERE WILL BE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY DRY WEATHER FOR THU/FRI. THE
BREAKDOWN OF AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BRING A SURGE OF MOISTURE FROM
THE WEST GOING INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SOME
WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS EXPECTED ALONG WITH HIGHER RH'S AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES. WINDS OVER THE I-10 CORRIDOR MAY BE A CONCERN
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 15-30MPH POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY WEST OF DEMING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 83 67 83 67 / 20 30 20 10
SIERRA BLANCA 78 59 78 60 / 20 20 10 0
LAS CRUCES 81 61 78 62 / 20 50 20 10
ALAMOGORDO 80 59 79 60 / 30 50 20 10
CLOUDCROFT 57 42 57 43 / 40 50 30 10
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 77 59 75 60 / 30 50 30 20
SILVER CITY 75 56 72 57 / 10 30 30 30
DEMING 82 64 81 63 / 20 40 20 20
LORDSBURG 81 64 81 65 / 10 10 20 20
WEST EL PASO METRO 82 67 81 67 / 20 30 20 10
DELL CITY 82 60 80 60 / 20 20 10 10
FORT HANCOCK 83 65 85 65 / 20 20 10 0
LOMA LINDA 75 59 74 59 / 20 30 10 0
FABENS 84 65 83 65 / 20 20 20 0
SANTA TERESA 82 64 80 65 / 20 40 20 10
WHITE SANDS HQ 80 63 78 64 / 20 50 20 10
JORNADA RANGE 80 60 78 62 / 20 50 20 10
HATCH 82 61 81 62 / 20 40 20 20
COLUMBUS 84 65 83 65 / 10 30 10 10
OROGRANDE 79 60 78 61 / 20 50 20 10
MAYHILL 65 48 66 48 / 40 50 30 10
MESCALERO 69 47 69 48 / 50 50 30 20
TIMBERON 66 47 65 47 / 30 50 20 10
WINSTON 71 50 68 52 / 20 40 40 30
HILLSBORO 77 57 76 58 / 20 50 30 20
SPACEPORT 79 58 77 60 / 30 50 30 20
LAKE ROBERTS 73 52 72 53 / 10 30 40 30
HURLEY 76 57 77 58 / 10 30 20 30
CLIFF 82 59 80 61 / 10 20 40 30
MULE CREEK 80 56 76 58 / 0 10 40 30
FAYWOOD 75 58 73 60 / 20 40 20 20
ANIMAS 83 63 81 64 / 10 10 10 20
HACHITA 81 62 79 62 / 10 20 10 20
ANTELOPE WELLS 82 61 81 62 / 10 20 10 20
CLOVERDALE 78 60 77 62 / 10 10 10 20
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...39-ARONSON
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