233
FXUS64 KEPZ 080549
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1149 PM MDT TUE OCT 7 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1136 PM MDT TUE OCT 7 2025
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
SATURDAY BEFORE COOLING DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY, FAVORING
NORTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS.
- DRIER CONDITIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, TRENDING BACK UP THIS
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SOME REMNANT TROPICAL MOISTURE
MOVING INTO THE AREA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 928 PM MDT TUE OCT 7 2025
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT BROUGHT US SOME MOISTURE/STORM CHANCES AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS WILL LINGER IN THE AREA FOR WED. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION LINGERS FOR MUCH OF TONIGHT ACCORDING TO HI-RES
MODELS, MAINLY OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL NM, AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO
PROVIDE FORCING. THE FRONT MAKES SLOW PROGRESSION WESTWARD TOMORROW,
PUSHING STORM CHANCES OVER WEST-CENTRAL NM. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED IN THE LOWLANDS WITH THE GILA REGION MOST LIKELY TO SEE
PM STORMS WHERE DYNAMICS AND INSTABILITY ARE MOST FAVORABLE, BUT NOT
ROBUST FOR STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION. STILL, GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL ARE POSSIBLE FOR NORTHERN AREAS. PREVAILING POST-FRONTAL WINDS
REMAIN BREEZY ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR WITH SPEEDS OF 10-20 MPH FROM
THE ESE THROUGH THE DAY.
HEADING INTO THU, THE UPPER HIGH TO THE EAST SHIFTS CLOSER TO US
OVER W TX, NUDGING MOST OF THE MOISTURE INTO AZ. STORM CHANCES WILL
LOWER FURTHER FOR THU WITH ONLY SLIGHT POPS IN THE GILA. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOSENS A BIT WITH SLIGHTLY LIGHTER WINDS DURING
THE DAY. A SIMILAR DAY IS EXPECTED FOR FRI AS MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
PREVAIL FOR THE REGION.
FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK, OUR ATTENTION SHIFTS
TO THE E-PAC WITH MULTIPLE TROPICAL SYSTEMS ROLLING UP THE BAJA.
FIRST IS HURRICANE PRISCILLA, WHICH IS CURRENTLY OFF THE SOUTHERN
TIP OF BAJA AND FORECAST TO CROSS THE NORTHERN BAJA BEFORE MOVING
INTO SONORA AND AZ FRI/SAT. ITS MOISTURE GETS SCOOPED UP BY A
PACIFIC TROUGH AND PUSHING THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS, BRINGING US A
HEALTHY AMOUNT OF TROPICAL MOISTURE ON SAT. WESTERN AREAS ARE
FAVORED TO SEE RAIN/STORM CHANCES. ANY FLASH FLOOD RISK WILL DEPEND
ON HOW DEEP THE MOISTURE IS. THE SECOND TROPICAL FEATURE TO WATCH
FOR IS A WAVE ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO, WHICH IS MODELED
TO MOVE PARALLEL TO THE COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND, FOLLOWING A
SIMILAR PATH TO PRISCILLA. IF THIS WAVE FORMS INTO RAYMOND, THE
UPPER HIGH LOOKS TO BE PLACED JUST RIGHT FOR IT TO GIVE US ANOTHER
ROUND OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE, MAYBE FOR SEVERAL DAYS NEXT WEEK.
PWS WILL MOST LIKELY BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL SAT-MON AND POSSIBLY INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH A LOW RISK OF FLASH FLOODING IF THE
PRECIP IS MORE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE. AREAS WEST OF THE RGV WILL
AGAIN BE FAVORED TO SEE STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE SECOND
TROPICAL REMNANTS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THU, THEN
WARMING THROUGH SAT. TEMPS FALL BACK TO BELOW AVERAGE EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH THE EXPECTED INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM MDT TUE OCT 7 2025
LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE NEAR KELP TO BEGIN THE PERIOD AND SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY THE EARLY MORNING. THE OTHER TERMINALS SHOULD REMAIN
DRY TONIGHT. RADAR TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE
AMENDMENTS. GUSTINESS RETURNS DURING THE AFTERNOON TO NEAR 20KTS
FROM ESE. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED TONIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1212 AM MDT TUE OCT 7 2025
FIRE WEATHER WILL NOT BE A BIG CONCERN OVER THE NEXT WEEK WITH A
PERSISTENT EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK KEEPING
RH'S IN THE 20S AND 30S. THERE WILL BE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY DRY WEATHER FOR THU/FRI. THE
BREAKDOWN OF AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BRING A SURGE OF MOISTURE FROM
THE WEST GOING INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SOME
WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS EXPECTED ALONG WITH HIGHER RH'S AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES. WINDS OVER THE I-10 CORRIDOR MAY BE A CONCERN
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 15-30MPH POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY WEST OF DEMING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 85 68 84 67 / 20 30 10 10
SIERRA BLANCA 80 59 79 57 / 20 10 20 10
LAS CRUCES 80 62 81 61 / 20 30 20 10
ALAMOGORDO 80 60 81 59 / 30 40 20 10
CLOUDCROFT 56 43 58 42 / 40 40 30 20
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 77 60 78 60 / 30 40 30 30
SILVER CITY 75 57 74 56 / 10 20 30 30
DEMING 83 65 83 63 / 20 30 20 20
LORDSBURG 81 65 82 64 / 10 10 10 20
WEST EL PASO METRO 83 67 83 67 / 20 30 10 10
DELL CITY 82 60 82 59 / 20 20 20 10
FORT HANCOCK 88 65 87 64 / 20 10 10 10
LOMA LINDA 76 59 76 58 / 20 20 10 10
FABENS 86 65 85 64 / 20 20 10 10
SANTA TERESA 83 65 82 64 / 20 30 10 10
WHITE SANDS HQ 81 64 81 63 / 20 30 20 10
JORNADA RANGE 80 61 80 61 / 20 40 20 10
HATCH 83 62 83 62 / 20 30 20 10
COLUMBUS 85 64 84 65 / 10 30 10 10
OROGRANDE 80 60 79 60 / 20 30 20 10
MAYHILL 65 48 67 47 / 40 40 40 20
MESCALERO 69 47 70 47 / 50 40 40 20
TIMBERON 66 47 67 46 / 30 40 30 20
WINSTON 70 51 69 51 / 20 30 40 30
HILLSBORO 77 58 77 58 / 20 30 30 30
SPACEPORT 78 59 79 59 / 30 40 30 20
LAKE ROBERTS 75 53 74 52 / 10 20 40 30
HURLEY 76 58 77 57 / 10 20 20 20
CLIFF 83 60 82 60 / 10 10 30 20
MULE CREEK 79 57 78 57 / 0 10 30 30
FAYWOOD 76 59 75 59 / 20 30 30 30
ANIMAS 83 65 83 64 / 10 10 10 20
HACHITA 82 63 82 63 / 10 20 10 10
ANTELOPE WELLS 83 62 83 61 / 10 10 10 10
CLOVERDALE 78 61 79 60 / 10 10 10 20
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...39-ARONSON
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