003
FXUS64 KEPZ 081148
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
548 AM MDT WED OCT 8 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 536 AM MDT WED OCT 8 2025
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
SATURDAY BEFORE COOLING DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY, FAVORING
NORTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS.
- DRIER CONDITIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, TRENDING BACK UP THIS
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SOME REMNANT TROPICAL MOISTURE
MOVING INTO THE AREA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 928 PM MDT TUE OCT 7 2025
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT BROUGHT US SOME MOISTURE/STORM CHANCES AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS WILL LINGER IN THE AREA FOR WED. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION LINGERS FOR MUCH OF TONIGHT ACCORDING TO HI-RES
MODELS, MAINLY OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL NM, AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO
PROVIDE FORCING. THE FRONT MAKES SLOW PROGRESSION WESTWARD TOMORROW,
PUSHING STORM CHANCES OVER WEST-CENTRAL NM. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED IN THE LOWLANDS WITH THE GILA REGION MOST LIKELY TO SEE
PM STORMS WHERE DYNAMICS AND INSTABILITY ARE MOST FAVORABLE, BUT NOT
ROBUST FOR STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION. STILL, GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL ARE POSSIBLE FOR NORTHERN AREAS. PREVAILING POST-FRONTAL WINDS
REMAIN BREEZY ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR WITH SPEEDS OF 10-20 MPH FROM
THE ESE THROUGH THE DAY.
HEADING INTO THU, THE UPPER HIGH TO THE EAST SHIFTS CLOSER TO US
OVER W TX, NUDGING MOST OF THE MOISTURE INTO AZ. STORM CHANCES WILL
LOWER FURTHER FOR THU WITH ONLY SLIGHT POPS IN THE GILA. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOSENS A BIT WITH SLIGHTLY LIGHTER WINDS DURING
THE DAY. A SIMILAR DAY IS EXPECTED FOR FRI AS MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
PREVAIL FOR THE REGION.
FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK, OUR ATTENTION SHIFTS
TO THE E-PAC WITH MULTIPLE TROPICAL SYSTEMS ROLLING UP THE BAJA.
FIRST IS HURRICANE PRISCILLA, WHICH IS CURRENTLY OFF THE SOUTHERN
TIP OF BAJA AND FORECAST TO CROSS THE NORTHERN BAJA BEFORE MOVING
INTO SONORA AND AZ FRI/SAT. ITS MOISTURE GETS SCOOPED UP BY A
PACIFIC TROUGH AND PUSHING THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS, BRINGING US A
HEALTHY AMOUNT OF TROPICAL MOISTURE ON SAT. WESTERN AREAS ARE
FAVORED TO SEE RAIN/STORM CHANCES. ANY FLASH FLOOD RISK WILL DEPEND
ON HOW DEEP THE MOISTURE IS. THE SECOND TROPICAL FEATURE TO WATCH
FOR IS A WAVE ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO, WHICH IS MODELED
TO MOVE PARALLEL TO THE COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND, FOLLOWING A
SIMILAR PATH TO PRISCILLA. IF THIS WAVE FORMS INTO RAYMOND, THE
UPPER HIGH LOOKS TO BE PLACED JUST RIGHT FOR IT TO GIVE US ANOTHER
ROUND OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE, MAYBE FOR SEVERAL DAYS NEXT WEEK.
PWS WILL MOST LIKELY BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL SAT-MON AND POSSIBLY INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH A LOW RISK OF FLASH FLOODING IF THE
PRECIP IS MORE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE. AREAS WEST OF THE RGV WILL
AGAIN BE FAVORED TO SEE STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE SECOND
TROPICAL REMNANTS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THU, THEN
WARMING THROUGH SAT. TEMPS FALL BACK TO BELOW AVERAGE EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH THE EXPECTED INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 536 AM MDT WED OCT 8 2025
LINGERING LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO PROGRESS FROM SW TO
NE ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY INTO S CENTRAL NM/OTERO CO THIS
MORNING. ALONG WITH THAT IS PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AT ALL LEVELS.
THROUGH 16Z EXPECT SCT CLOUDS BELOW 060, WITH SCT-BKN MID CLOUDS
IN THE 090-130 HEIGHT RANGE. MORNING SHOWER WILL CONTINUE TO
DISSOLVE THROUGH 13-15Z. MID-DAY WILL BRING A MIX OF SKY
CONDITIONS, WITH HIGHER HEIGHTS AND CIG, WELL WITHIN VFR CRITERIA.
WINDS WILL BE SE IN THE 110-140 DIRECTION RANGE, AND BECOME
SOMEWHAT BREEZY IN THE 15-20KT RANGE FROM 18 TO 03Z. THERE ARE
SLIGHT CHANCES OF AFTN/EVE SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT, BUT MOST
OF THOSE WILL BE OVER AREA MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN LOWLANDS, WITH
KTCS HAVING THE BETTER CHANCES TO BE IMPACTED, AND VERY SLIGHT
RISK FOR KDMN, KLRU, AND KELP.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1212 AM MDT TUE OCT 7 2025
FIRE WEATHER WILL NOT BE A BIG CONCERN OVER THE NEXT WEEK WITH A
PERSISTENT EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK KEEPING
RH'S IN THE 20S AND 30S. THERE WILL BE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY DRY WEATHER FOR THU/FRI. THE
BREAKDOWN OF AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BRING A SURGE OF MOISTURE FROM
THE WEST GOING INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SOME
WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS EXPECTED ALONG WITH HIGHER RH'S AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES. WINDS OVER THE I-10 CORRIDOR MAY BE A CONCERN
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 15-30MPH POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY WEST OF DEMING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 68 84 67 87 / 10 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 59 79 57 81 / 10 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 62 81 61 82 / 10 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 60 81 59 83 / 10 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 43 58 42 61 / 20 10 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 60 78 60 79 / 30 10 10 0
SILVER CITY 57 74 56 76 / 30 10 10 0
DEMING 65 83 63 84 / 20 10 0 0
LORDSBURG 65 82 64 83 / 20 10 10 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 67 83 67 84 / 10 0 0 0
DELL CITY 60 82 59 84 / 10 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 65 87 64 87 / 10 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 59 76 58 77 / 10 0 0 0
FABENS 65 85 64 86 / 10 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 65 82 64 82 / 10 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 64 81 63 82 / 10 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 61 80 61 81 / 10 10 0 0
HATCH 62 83 62 84 / 10 10 0 0
COLUMBUS 64 84 65 85 / 10 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 60 79 60 81 / 10 0 0 0
MAYHILL 48 67 47 71 / 20 10 0 0
MESCALERO 47 70 47 72 / 20 10 0 0
TIMBERON 47 67 46 69 / 20 10 0 0
WINSTON 51 69 51 72 / 30 20 10 0
HILLSBORO 58 77 58 79 / 30 10 10 0
SPACEPORT 59 79 59 80 / 20 10 10 0
LAKE ROBERTS 53 74 52 77 / 30 20 10 10
HURLEY 58 77 57 78 / 20 10 10 0
CLIFF 60 82 60 84 / 20 10 10 10
MULE CREEK 57 78 57 80 / 30 20 10 10
FAYWOOD 59 75 59 77 / 30 10 10 0
ANIMAS 65 83 64 84 / 20 10 0 0
HACHITA 63 82 63 83 / 10 10 10 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 62 83 61 84 / 10 10 0 0
CLOVERDALE 61 79 60 81 / 20 10 10 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...14-BIRD
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