192
FXUS64 KEPZ 081759
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1159 AM MDT WED OCT 8 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1157 AM MDT WED OCT 8 2025
- DRY CONDITIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
- REMNANT TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE PRISCILLA WILL FLOW OVER
THE AREA THIS WEEKEND BRINGING AREAWIDE RAIN CHANCES.
- ANOTHER TROPICAL SYSTEM WILL FLOW OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK
CONTINUING AREAWIDE RAIN CHANCES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1157 AM MDT WED OCT 8 2025
UPPER HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND TOMORROW,
RETROGRADING FROM CENTRAL TX. MID LEVEL CAPPING INVERSION WILL KEEP
THE AREA DRY THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCES
US. PRESSURE GRADIENT STAYS SOMEWHAT TIGHT OVER THE AREA BUT
ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN LOCATIONS LIKE THE LORDSBURG PLAYA AND EVEN
THE REMAINDER OF HIDALGO COUNTY AND INTO LUNA COUNTY. BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE SEEN IN THOSE AREAS EACH AFTERNOON
AND OVERNIGHT TIME FRAMES WITH WIND SPEEDS OF 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS
TO 30-35 MPH. PATCHY BLOWING DUST POSSIBLE BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW
WITH REGARDS TO HOW LOW VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS WILL BECOME.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MEANDER AROUND THE WEST TX AREA FRIDAY BEFORE
BEING SHUNTED SOUTH INTO MEXICO DUE TO A PASSING TROUGH SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY. MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL GUIDE HURRICANE
PRISCILLA'S MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO BAJA CALIFORNIA, SOCAL, AND SW
AZ SATURDAY MORNING BUT OUR RAIN CHANCES BEGIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND WILL MARCH EASTWARD SLOWLY
THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. FORECASTED PW VALUES ARE AROUND 1.2-1.3"
WHICH IS WELL ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. IF
THIS PATTERN HOLDS, THIS COULD EVEN BE A CHANCE FOR RECORD BREAKING
PWS. STORMS WILL BE PRONE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH COULD LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING IF THEY CAN TAP INTO SOME INSTABILITY. ONE THING THAT
WILL HELP WITH THE FLOODING THREAT IS THE FAST STORM MOTIONS THAT
ARE EXPECTED BOTH AFTERNOONS WITH SPEEDS OF 15-25 MPH. THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH LOOKS TO SWING BY SATURDAY EVENING AND INTO
SUNDAY WHICH WILL HELP KEEP STORM ACTIVITY GOING THROUGHOUT THE
OVERNIGHT.
WE'RE NOT DONE WITH THE RAIN CHANCES YET! ANOTHER TROPICAL STORM
LOOKS TO MAKE IT'S WAY INTO THE CONUS BY EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK
TAKING A VERY SIMILAR PATH THAT PRISCILLA TOOK. CONFIDENCE IS LOW
WITH REGARDS TO THIS FORECAST SO FAR OUT, BUT MORE RAIN CHANCES
COULD BE ON THE HORIZON.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1157 AM MDT WED OCT 8 2025
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOW END
BREEZY SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE SEEN THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS 10-15G20-25KT. THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED MOSTLY
FOR THE SACRAMENTO MTNS THIS AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD STAY DRY
ELSEWHERE. WINDS DECREASE GENERALLY AOB 10KT TONIGHT BUT KDMN MAY
STAY A BIT BREEZIER.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1157 AM MDT WED OCT 8 2025
LOW FIRE DANGER THROUGH THE WEEK AHEAD AS MIN RH VALUES STAY WELL
ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE DRY, MIN RHS
WILL BE 35-45% IN THE LOWLANDS AND 50-80% IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN THE
NEXT FEW AFTERNOONS. TROPICAL REMNANTS LOOK TO FLOW OVER THE AREA
THIS WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR GOOD AREAWIDE RAIN CHANCES. STORMS WILL BE
PRONE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IF THEY ARE ABLE TO TAP INTO SOME
INSTABILITY. ANOTHER ROUND OF TROPICAL REMNANTS POSSIBLE STARTING
EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH COULD CONTINUE AREAWIDE RAIN CHANCES.
BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST EACH OVERNIGHT AND AFTERNOON
STARTING TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. 20 FOOT WIND SPEEDS WILL
BE 10-15 MPH ACROSS THE LOWLANDS WITH THE BREEZIEST CONDITIONS SEEN
NEAR DEMING AND ESPECIALLY WEST OF DEMING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 68 86 67 86 / 10 10 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 58 80 56 81 / 0 10 0 0
LAS CRUCES 62 80 60 82 / 10 10 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 59 80 58 83 / 10 10 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 43 58 42 61 / 20 10 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 61 78 60 79 / 20 10 0 0
SILVER CITY 57 75 56 76 / 10 10 0 0
DEMING 64 83 63 85 / 10 10 0 0
LORDSBURG 64 82 64 83 / 20 10 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 67 83 66 84 / 10 10 0 0
DELL CITY 59 83 58 84 / 10 10 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 65 87 64 88 / 0 10 0 0
LOMA LINDA 59 76 58 77 / 0 10 0 0
FABENS 65 86 64 86 / 0 10 0 0
SANTA TERESA 64 82 63 83 / 10 10 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 63 81 62 82 / 10 10 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 61 80 60 81 / 10 10 0 0
HATCH 62 83 61 84 / 10 10 0 0
COLUMBUS 64 84 64 85 / 10 10 0 0
OROGRANDE 60 80 59 81 / 10 10 0 0
MAYHILL 48 68 47 71 / 20 10 0 0
MESCALERO 47 70 46 73 / 20 10 0 0
TIMBERON 47 68 45 69 / 10 10 0 0
WINSTON 51 70 50 72 / 20 20 0 0
HILLSBORO 57 78 58 79 / 10 10 0 0
SPACEPORT 59 79 58 80 / 10 10 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 52 75 52 76 / 20 20 10 0
HURLEY 58 76 58 78 / 10 10 0 0
CLIFF 61 83 60 84 / 10 10 0 0
MULE CREEK 57 78 56 80 / 20 10 10 0
FAYWOOD 59 75 59 77 / 10 10 0 0
ANIMAS 64 83 63 85 / 10 10 0 0
HACHITA 63 82 62 83 / 10 10 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 61 83 60 85 / 10 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 61 79 60 80 / 10 10 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...37-SLUSHER
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