272
FXUS64 KEPZ 090441
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1041 PM MDT WED OCT 8 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1018 PM MDT WED OCT 8 2025
- DRIER AND SOMEWHAT BREEZY CONDITIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
- REMNANT TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL FLOW OVER THE AREA SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY, BRINGING RAIN AND STORM CHANCES. HEAVY RAIN
THREAT WILL BE FAVORED IN WESTERN AREAS.
- TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY,
THEN COOLING EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1018 PM MDT WED OCT 8 2025
FOR THU/FRI, THE UPPER HIGH TO THE EAST SHIFTS CLOSER TO US OVER W
TX, NUDGING SOME OF THE MOISTURE INTO AZ. PWS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH FRI (ABOUT 1.1"; NORMAL IS AROUND 0.6"), BUT THE MID-LEVEL
CAPPING WILL LIMIT OUR INSTABILITY AND CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. AS A
RESULT, MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE SHORT-TERM. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT STAYS SOMEWHAT TIGHT THROUGH FRI, ESPECIALLY IN
WESTERN AREAS CLOSER TO WHERE SURFACE TROUGHING DEVELOPS IN
SONORA/SOUTHERN AZ. E-SE WINDS REMAIN ON THE BREEZY SIDE, GENERALLY
10-20 MPH, STRONGER NEAR THE NM-AZ BORDER.
FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK, OUR ATTENTION SHIFTS
TO THE E-PAC WITH MULTIPLE TROPICAL SYSTEMS ROLLING UP THE BAJA.
FIRST IS NOW TS PRISCILLA, WHICH IS CURRENTLY OFF THE SOUTHERN COAST
OF BAJA AND FORECAST TO WEAKEN/SHEAR OFF BEFORE REACHING THE COAST
ON FRI. ITS MOISTURE GETS SCOOPED UP BY A PACIFIC TROUGH FRI-SAT,
BRINGING HIGHLY ANOMALOUS MOISTURE TO AZ/FOUR CORNERS REGION. AS
THE TROUGH PROGRESSES EASTWARD SAT NIGHT/SUN, WE'LL GET THE NEAR-
RECORD MOISTURE CONTENT AS WELL. PWS ARE MODELED TO BE AROUND 1.4"
AT EPZ SAT NIGHT ACCORDING TO THE LATEST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE WITH
SOME MEMBERS ABOVE 1.5". RECORD PWS FOR MID-OCT ARE ABOUT 1.2", SO
THERE'S A HIGH CHANCE WE BREAK A RECORD THIS WEEKEND.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN THIS PATTERN, BUT WE'RE LESS CERTAIN IF ALL
THIS MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE A RISK OF FLASH FLOODING. THE PASSING
TROUGH WILL PROVIDE SOME LIFT FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP, BUT EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER COULD LIMIT INSTABILITY AND LEAVE US WITH MORE
STRATIFORM PRECIP. CONFIDENCE SHOULD GROW BY FRIDAY ON HOW
CONVECTIVE THE PRECIP WILL BE AND THE RISK LEVELS FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL. NBM 90TH PERCENTILE QPF FOR SAT SHOWS TOTALS UP TO 2"
WHILE THE MEDIAN IS GENERALLY NEAR 0.5". RAIN/STORM CHANCES
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST SAT WITH WESTERN AREAS FAVORED TO SEE
FLASH FLOODING INTO SUN AM.
ON SUNDAY, MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SECOND TROPICAL FEATURE
(LIKELY TO BE TS RAYMOND) REACHES OUR AREA AS IT TAKES A SIMILAR
PATH TO PRISCILLA, PARALLEL TO THE SW MEXICAN COAST. THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL BE EJECTING INTO THE PLAINS, SO WE WON'T HAVE AS MUCH
FORCING ON SUNDAY WITH THIS OTHER BATCH OF TROPICAL MOISTURE, AT
LEAST INITIALLY. THERE'S UNCERTAINTY REGARDING RAYMOND'S EXACT PATH
AND WHERE THE DEEPEST MOISTURE SETS UP SUN/MON, BUT WE WILL MOST
LIKELY SEE CONTINUED NEAR-RECORD PWS. THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLES ARE
FOCUSING THE HEAVIEST QPF SUN IN SW NM WHERE THERE IS CURRENTLY A
SLIGHT ERO IN PLACE (AND EVEN A HIGH-END SLIGHT MORE INTO
TUCSON'S CWA). ANOTHER FEATURE TO KEEP AN EYE ON IS A SECOND
PACIFIC TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHICH MAY PROVIDE
SOME LIFT AND SCOOP UP THE MOISTURE. WE'RE UNSURE IF THIS TROUGH
WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH AND/OR TIMED CORRECTLY TO ENHANCE OUR STORM
CHANCES INTO TUE. REGARDLESS OF THESE UNCERTAINTIES, AREAS WEST
OF THE RGV WILL AGAIN BE FAVORED TO SEE STORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THEREAFTER, WE GET FULLY INTO THE WESTERLY, MID-LATITUDE FLOW,
ALLOWING DRY CONDITIONS TO RETURN INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
WITH SOME BREEZY WINDS.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH SAT.
TEMPS FALL BACK TO BELOW AVERAGE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE EXPECTED
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES. REBOUNDING TEMPS ARE
THEN EXPECTED TO END THE PERIOD AS THE MOISTURE IS FLUSHED OUT TO
THE EAST.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1018 PM MDT WED OCT 8 2025
MID-HIGH CLOUDS STREAM OVERHEAD FROM THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE
DAYTIME ASSOCIATED WITH TS PRISCILLA'S MOISTURE. CIGS REMAIN HIGH
AROUND 20KFT, EXCEPT FOR KTCS WHICH HAS A POCKET OF LOWER CLOUDS
HANGING AROUND. DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL FOR ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS IN FROM THE EAST. GUSTS
UP TO 20KTS DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, WINDS AOB
10KTS THROUGH THE AM.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1157 AM MDT WED OCT 8 2025
LOW FIRE DANGER THROUGH THE WEEK AHEAD AS MIN RH VALUES STAY WELL
ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE DRY, MIN RHS
WILL BE 35-45% IN THE LOWLANDS AND 50-80% IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN THE
NEXT FEW AFTERNOONS. TROPICAL REMNANTS LOOK TO FLOW OVER THE AREA
THIS WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR GOOD AREAWIDE RAIN CHANCES. STORMS WILL BE
PRONE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IF THEY ARE ABLE TO TAP INTO SOME
INSTABILITY. ANOTHER ROUND OF TROPICAL REMNANTS POSSIBLE STARTING
EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH COULD CONTINUE AREAWIDE RAIN CHANCES.
BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST EACH OVERNIGHT AND AFTERNOON
STARTING TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. 20 FOOT WIND SPEEDS WILL
BE 10-15 MPH ACROSS THE LOWLANDS WITH THE BREEZIEST CONDITIONS SEEN
NEAR DEMING AND ESPECIALLY WEST OF DEMING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 85 67 86 68 / 20 10 10 10
SIERRA BLANCA 80 57 81 57 / 20 10 10 10
LAS CRUCES 81 62 82 63 / 20 10 10 10
ALAMOGORDO 82 59 83 61 / 40 10 10 10
CLOUDCROFT 59 42 61 44 / 40 20 10 10
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 79 60 80 60 / 20 30 10 10
SILVER CITY 75 56 76 57 / 10 20 10 10
DEMING 84 64 85 64 / 10 10 10 10
LORDSBURG 82 64 83 64 / 10 10 10 10
WEST EL PASO METRO 83 67 84 68 / 10 10 10 10
DELL CITY 83 59 84 58 / 10 0 10 10
FORT HANCOCK 87 64 88 65 / 20 10 10 10
LOMA LINDA 77 58 77 59 / 20 10 10 10
FABENS 86 64 87 65 / 20 0 10 10
SANTA TERESA 82 64 83 64 / 10 10 10 10
WHITE SANDS HQ 82 63 83 63 / 30 10 10 10
JORNADA RANGE 81 61 81 61 / 30 10 10 10
HATCH 84 62 84 62 / 20 10 10 10
COLUMBUS 85 63 86 65 / 10 10 10 10
OROGRANDE 80 60 81 60 / 30 10 10 10
MAYHILL 68 47 71 48 / 40 10 10 10
MESCALERO 71 46 73 48 / 40 20 10 10
TIMBERON 68 46 69 47 / 30 10 10 10
WINSTON 71 51 72 51 / 20 30 10 10
HILLSBORO 78 58 79 57 / 20 20 10 10
SPACEPORT 80 59 81 60 / 30 20 10 10
LAKE ROBERTS 75 52 76 53 / 20 20 10 10
HURLEY 77 57 79 57 / 10 20 10 10
CLIFF 83 60 84 61 / 20 20 10 10
MULE CREEK 79 56 80 57 / 30 30 10 10
FAYWOOD 77 58 77 59 / 10 20 10 10
ANIMAS 84 63 85 63 / 10 10 10 10
HACHITA 82 62 83 62 / 10 10 10 10
ANTELOPE WELLS 84 61 85 61 / 10 10 10 10
CLOVERDALE 79 60 81 60 / 10 10 10 10
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...39-ARONSON
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