161
FXUS64 KEPZ 091320
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
720 AM MDT THU OCT 9 2025
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 702 AM MDT THU OCT 9 2025
A VORT LOBE EMBEDDED IN SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND THE WESTERN EDGE
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE HAS BEEN PRODUCING A PERSISTENT BAND OF
RAIN SHOWERS MOST OF THE NIGHT, STRETCHING FROM THE NORTHERN GULF
OF CALIFORNIA INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. THE LAST FEW RUNS OF
THE HRRR HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS FEATURE, AND INDICATE THE
SHOWERS WILL WEAKEN THROUGH MID-MORNING AS THEY DRIFT NORTHWARDS.
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 702 AM MDT THU OCT 9 2025
- DRIER AND SOMEWHAT BREEZY CONDITIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
- REMNANT TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL FLOW OVER THE AREA SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY, BRINGING RAIN AND STORM CHANCES. HEAVY RAIN
THREAT WILL BE FAVORED IN WESTERN AREAS.
- TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY,
THEN COOLING EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1018 PM MDT WED OCT 8 2025
FOR THU/FRI, THE UPPER HIGH TO THE EAST SHIFTS CLOSER TO US OVER W
TX, NUDGING SOME OF THE MOISTURE INTO AZ. PWS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH FRI (ABOUT 1.1"; NORMAL IS AROUND 0.6"), BUT THE MID-LEVEL
CAPPING WILL LIMIT OUR INSTABILITY AND CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. AS A
RESULT, MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE SHORT-TERM. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT STAYS SOMEWHAT TIGHT THROUGH FRI, ESPECIALLY IN
WESTERN AREAS CLOSER TO WHERE SURFACE TROUGHING DEVELOPS IN
SONORA/SOUTHERN AZ. E-SE WINDS REMAIN ON THE BREEZY SIDE, GENERALLY
10-20 MPH, STRONGER NEAR THE NM-AZ BORDER.
FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK, OUR ATTENTION SHIFTS
TO THE E-PAC WITH MULTIPLE TROPICAL SYSTEMS ROLLING UP THE BAJA.
FIRST IS NOW TS PRISCILLA, WHICH IS CURRENTLY OFF THE SOUTHERN COAST
OF BAJA AND FORECAST TO WEAKEN/SHEAR OFF BEFORE REACHING THE COAST
ON FRI. ITS MOISTURE GETS SCOOPED UP BY A PACIFIC TROUGH FRI-SAT,
BRINGING HIGHLY ANOMALOUS MOISTURE TO AZ/FOUR CORNERS REGION. AS
THE TROUGH PROGRESSES EASTWARD SAT NIGHT/SUN, WE'LL GET THE NEAR-
RECORD MOISTURE CONTENT AS WELL. PWS ARE MODELED TO BE AROUND 1.4"
AT EPZ SAT NIGHT ACCORDING TO THE LATEST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE WITH
SOME MEMBERS ABOVE 1.5". RECORD PWS FOR MID-OCT ARE ABOUT 1.2", SO
THERE'S A HIGH CHANCE WE BREAK A RECORD THIS WEEKEND.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN THIS PATTERN, BUT WE'RE LESS CERTAIN IF ALL
THIS MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE A RISK OF FLASH FLOODING. THE PASSING
TROUGH WILL PROVIDE SOME LIFT FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP, BUT EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER COULD LIMIT INSTABILITY AND LEAVE US WITH MORE
STRATIFORM PRECIP. CONFIDENCE SHOULD GROW BY FRIDAY ON HOW
CONVECTIVE THE PRECIP WILL BE AND THE RISK LEVELS FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL. NBM 90TH PERCENTILE QPF FOR SAT SHOWS TOTALS UP TO 2"
WHILE THE MEDIAN IS GENERALLY NEAR 0.5". RAIN/STORM CHANCES
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST SAT WITH WESTERN AREAS FAVORED TO SEE
FLASH FLOODING INTO SUN AM.
ON SUNDAY, MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SECOND TROPICAL FEATURE
(LIKELY TO BE TS RAYMOND) REACHES OUR AREA AS IT TAKES A SIMILAR
PATH TO PRISCILLA, PARALLEL TO THE SW MEXICAN COAST. THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL BE EJECTING INTO THE PLAINS, SO WE WON'T HAVE AS MUCH
FORCING ON SUNDAY WITH THIS OTHER BATCH OF TROPICAL MOISTURE, AT
LEAST INITIALLY. THERE'S UNCERTAINTY REGARDING RAYMOND'S EXACT PATH
AND WHERE THE DEEPEST MOISTURE SETS UP SUN/MON, BUT WE WILL MOST
LIKELY SEE CONTINUED NEAR-RECORD PWS. THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLES ARE
FOCUSING THE HEAVIEST QPF SUN IN SW NM WHERE THERE IS CURRENTLY A
SLIGHT ERO IN PLACE (AND EVEN A HIGH-END SLIGHT MORE INTO
TUCSON'S CWA). ANOTHER FEATURE TO KEEP AN EYE ON IS A SECOND
PACIFIC TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHICH MAY PROVIDE
SOME LIFT AND SCOOP UP THE MOISTURE. WE'RE UNSURE IF THIS TROUGH
WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH AND/OR TIMED CORRECTLY TO ENHANCE OUR STORM
CHANCES INTO TUE. REGARDLESS OF THESE UNCERTAINTIES, AREAS WEST
OF THE RGV WILL AGAIN BE FAVORED TO SEE STORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THEREAFTER, WE GET FULLY INTO THE WESTERLY, MID-LATITUDE FLOW,
ALLOWING DRY CONDITIONS TO RETURN INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
WITH SOME BREEZY WINDS.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH SAT.
TEMPS FALL BACK TO BELOW AVERAGE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE EXPECTED
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES. REBOUNDING TEMPS ARE
THEN EXPECTED TO END THE PERIOD AS THE MOISTURE IS FLUSHED OUT TO
THE EAST.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 702 AM MDT THU OCT 9 2025
BAND OF SHOWERS LIFTING NORTH ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO MAY
GRAZE TCS IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS BEFORE WEAKENING, BUT NO
RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED. OTHERWISE, EXPECT A QUIET 24 HOURS WITH
SCT-BKN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA, AND ESE WINDS
OCCASIONALLY BREEZY (GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS).
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 702 AM MDT THU OCT 9 2025
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN NM THIS MORNING WILL
DIMINISH BEFORE NOON, WITH TODAY AND FRIDAY REMAINING MOSTLY RAIN-
FREE. TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN EDGING INTO SOUTHWESTERN NM ON
SATURDAY, WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN SW NEW MEXICO SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, AS
TROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMS TOWARDS THE AREA. SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON THE PATH OF THE TROPICAL REMNANTS.
COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL ACCOMPANY THE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES, WITH
DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY MID-WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 67 86 68 90 / 10 0 0 10
SIERRA BLANCA 57 81 57 84 / 20 0 0 10
LAS CRUCES 62 82 63 84 / 10 0 0 20
ALAMOGORDO 59 83 61 85 / 10 0 0 10
CLOUDCROFT 42 61 44 64 / 20 0 0 10
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 60 80 60 81 / 10 0 10 30
SILVER CITY 56 76 57 77 / 10 0 20 60
DEMING 64 85 64 87 / 10 0 10 30
LORDSBURG 64 83 64 83 / 10 0 10 50
WEST EL PASO METRO 67 84 68 87 / 10 0 0 10
DELL CITY 59 84 58 87 / 20 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 64 88 65 91 / 10 0 0 10
LOMA LINDA 58 77 59 81 / 10 0 0 10
FABENS 64 87 65 90 / 10 0 0 10
SANTA TERESA 64 83 64 86 / 10 0 0 10
WHITE SANDS HQ 63 83 63 86 / 10 0 0 10
JORNADA RANGE 61 81 61 84 / 10 0 0 20
HATCH 62 84 62 87 / 10 0 0 20
COLUMBUS 63 86 65 88 / 10 0 10 20
OROGRANDE 60 81 60 84 / 10 0 0 10
MAYHILL 47 71 48 75 / 20 0 0 10
MESCALERO 46 73 48 75 / 20 0 0 10
TIMBERON 46 69 47 72 / 20 0 0 10
WINSTON 51 72 51 75 / 10 10 10 40
HILLSBORO 58 79 57 82 / 10 0 10 40
SPACEPORT 59 81 60 84 / 10 0 0 20
LAKE ROBERTS 52 76 53 77 / 10 10 20 60
HURLEY 57 79 57 79 / 10 0 10 50
CLIFF 60 84 61 83 / 10 0 20 60
MULE CREEK 56 80 57 79 / 10 10 20 70
FAYWOOD 58 77 59 79 / 10 0 10 40
ANIMAS 63 85 63 85 / 10 0 10 50
HACHITA 62 83 62 84 / 10 0 10 50
ANTELOPE WELLS 61 85 61 86 / 10 0 10 40
CLOVERDALE 60 81 60 79 / 10 0 10 50
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...25-HARDIMAN
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