687
FXUS64 KEPZ 091724
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1124 AM MDT THU OCT 9 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1124 AM MDT THU OCT 9 2025
- DRIER AND SOMEWHAT BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY.
- REMNANT TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL FLOW OVER THE AREA SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY, BRINGING RAIN AND STORM CHANCES. HEAVY RAIN
THREAT WILL BE FAVORED IN SOUTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS WITH
FLOODING POSSIBLE.
- TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY,
THEN COOLING EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1124 AM MDT THU OCT 9 2025
MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE AGREEMENT OF A TROUGH/RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN
FOR MUCH OF THE U.S. THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE RIDGE WILL
REMAIN JUST OFF TO OUR EAST WITH A COUPLE OF TROUGHS/UPPER LOWS
MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC COAST. THERE ARE 2 TROPICAL SYSTEMS
PRISCILLA AND POSSIBLY RAYMOND WHICH WILL GET PICKED UP IN THIS
PATTERN AND BROUGHT UP INTO THE REGION BRINGING THE THREAT FOR
HEAVY RAIN.
THE PERIOD WILL START OUT FAIRLY QUIET WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS
MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS BEFORE THE TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVES IN.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WARMING UP ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S FOR THE LOWLANDS WITH OCCASIONAL BREEZY
EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS.
AS WE GO INTO THE WEEKEND, THE REMNANTS OF PRISCILLA WILL GET
DRAWN NORTH INTO AZ AND IT LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THIS MOISTURE WILL
BE NORTH OF US, THERE WILL STILL BE SOME MOVING INTO THE WEST BY
SAT AFTERNOON AS TROUGH TO THE WEST MOVES INTO THE GREAT BASIN.
THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH INSTABILITY ANY DAY, BUT ANY CONVECTION
THAT CAN DEVELOP WILL BE VERY EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS WITH PW'S
APPROACHING 1.5" AT TIMES WHICH IS VERY HIGH FOR EARLY/MID OCT.
PRECIP WILL SPREAD EAST SAT NIGHT THEN WITH SSW TO SW FLOW
PERSISTING RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
MOISTURE FROM WHAT COULD DEVELOP INTO RAYMOND MOVES IN FOR
SUN/MON. THERE HAS BEEN A DOWNTREND IN THE OPERATIONAL GFS FOR
TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS, BUT THE ENSEMBLE MEAN IS UP SLIGHTLY FOR SAT-
TUE. AT THIS POINT IT'S HARD TO PINPOINT A PERIOD OF GREATEST
FLOODING THREAT, BUT IT'S MORE LIKELY GOING TO BE SUN/MON AS SOILS
SATURATE. NBM POPS GENERALLY HIGH CHANCE TO LOW LIKELY AND DIDN'T
MAKE MANY CHANGES. THE WAY THE PATTERN SEEMS TO BE DEVELOPING, THE
FURTHER SOUTH YOU GO, THE HIGHER THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY
BE. OVERALL WOULD EXPECT 1-1.5" BEING THE AVERAGE WITH SOME AREAS,
ESPECIALLY OVER FAR SW NM WHERE 2-3" ARE POSSIBLE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLING DOWN NICELY WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD
COVER AND PRECIPITATION. MOST AREAS BY SUNDAY WILL HAVE A TOUGH
TIME GETTING OUT OF THE 70S WITH SOME 60S POSSIBLE IN THE AREAS
WITH THE HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS.
THERE COULD CONTINUE TO BE SOME RAIN CHANCES CONTINUING EVEN INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, BUT THIS WILL DEPEND ON IF THE UPPER FLOW
STAYS MORE SW LIKE THE EC WHICH TAPS INTO DRIER AIR OR THE GFS
WHICH IS MORE SOUTHERLY AND CONTINUES TO TAP SOME SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE. KEPT SOME 20 POPS GOING INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH
THIS CHANCE.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1124 AM MDT THU OCT 9 2025
P6SM FEW-SCT070-090 SCT-BKN150-200 THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ISOLATED AND CONFINED TO AREA MOUNTAINS.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE OUT OF THE E TO SE AT 5-15G25KTS WITH
THE STRONGEST WINDS AT KDMN AND WEST.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1124 AM MDT THU OCT 9 2025
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
MIN RH'S IN THE 30S EARLY ON BUT BY SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY WILL BE UP
INTO THE 40S TO 60S. GENERALLY DRY THROUGH FRIDAY, BUT PRECIP WILL
START MOVING IN EARLY SATURDAY FROM THE WEST AND SPREAD EAST BY
EARLY SUNDAY. CHANCES FOR RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS POSSIBLE LEADING
TO FLOODING. THE RAIN LOOKS MORE STRATIFORM WITH ISOLATED EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS, SO IT WILL BE MORE OF A MODERATE, PROLONGED RAIN
EVENT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 68 86 69 87 / 0 0 0 20
SIERRA BLANCA 61 81 59 83 / 10 10 0 0
LAS CRUCES 63 82 64 82 / 10 0 0 20
ALAMOGORDO 59 83 62 83 / 10 10 0 20
CLOUDCROFT 44 60 45 62 / 10 10 0 10
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 61 80 61 80 / 10 10 10 30
SILVER CITY 56 76 58 76 / 10 10 20 60
DEMING 63 84 66 83 / 10 10 10 40
LORDSBURG 63 83 65 80 / 10 10 20 60
WEST EL PASO METRO 67 84 69 86 / 0 0 0 20
DELL CITY 59 84 60 86 / 10 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 65 88 66 89 / 10 0 0 10
LOMA LINDA 61 77 60 80 / 10 0 0 10
FABENS 65 86 65 88 / 0 0 0 10
SANTA TERESA 63 83 66 84 / 0 0 0 20
WHITE SANDS HQ 63 83 65 84 / 10 0 0 20
JORNADA RANGE 61 82 63 83 / 10 0 0 20
HATCH 61 84 64 86 / 10 10 0 30
COLUMBUS 63 84 66 84 / 10 0 10 40
OROGRANDE 59 81 61 82 / 0 0 0 10
MAYHILL 51 70 49 73 / 10 10 0 10
MESCALERO 52 72 49 73 / 10 10 0 20
TIMBERON 50 69 48 71 / 10 10 0 10
WINSTON 51 72 51 73 / 10 10 10 40
HILLSBORO 58 79 58 79 / 10 10 10 40
SPACEPORT 58 80 61 81 / 10 10 10 30
LAKE ROBERTS 54 75 53 76 / 10 10 20 60
HURLEY 58 78 58 77 / 10 10 20 50
CLIFF 59 84 62 79 / 10 10 20 60
MULE CREEK 56 80 58 77 / 10 10 30 70
FAYWOOD 58 78 60 78 / 10 10 10 50
ANIMAS 63 84 63 81 / 10 10 20 60
HACHITA 61 83 63 84 / 10 0 20 50
ANTELOPE WELLS 60 84 61 83 / 10 10 20 50
CLOVERDALE 60 80 61 78 / 10 10 20 60
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...26-GRZYWACZ
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