503
FXUS64 KEPZ 092338
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
538 PM MDT THU OCT 9 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 535 PM MDT THU OCT 9 2025
- DRIER AND SOMEWHAT BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY.
- REMNANT TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL FLOW OVER THE AREA SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY, BRINGING RAIN AND STORM CHANCES. HEAVY RAIN
THREAT WILL BE FAVORED IN SOUTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS WITH
FLOODING POSSIBLE.
- TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY,
THEN COOLING EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1124 AM MDT THU OCT 9 2025
MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE AGREEMENT OF A TROUGH/RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN
FOR MUCH OF THE U.S. THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE RIDGE WILL
REMAIN JUST OFF TO OUR EAST WITH A COUPLE OF TROUGHS/UPPER LOWS
MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC COAST. THERE ARE 2 TROPICAL SYSTEMS
PRISCILLA AND POSSIBLY RAYMOND WHICH WILL GET PICKED UP IN THIS
PATTERN AND BROUGHT UP INTO THE REGION BRINGING THE THREAT FOR
HEAVY RAIN.
THE PERIOD WILL START OUT FAIRLY QUIET WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS
MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS BEFORE THE TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVES IN.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WARMING UP ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S FOR THE LOWLANDS WITH OCCASIONAL BREEZY
EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS.
AS WE GO INTO THE WEEKEND, THE REMNANTS OF PRISCILLA WILL GET
DRAWN NORTH INTO AZ AND IT LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THIS MOISTURE WILL
BE NORTH OF US, THERE WILL STILL BE SOME MOVING INTO THE WEST BY
SAT AFTERNOON AS TROUGH TO THE WEST MOVES INTO THE GREAT BASIN.
THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH INSTABILITY ANY DAY, BUT ANY CONVECTION
THAT CAN DEVELOP WILL BE VERY EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS WITH PW'S
APPROACHING 1.5" AT TIMES WHICH IS VERY HIGH FOR EARLY/MID OCT.
PRECIP WILL SPREAD EAST SAT NIGHT THEN WITH SSW TO SW FLOW
PERSISTING RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
MOISTURE FROM WHAT COULD DEVELOP INTO RAYMOND MOVES IN FOR
SUN/MON. THERE HAS BEEN A DOWNTREND IN THE OPERATIONAL GFS FOR
TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS, BUT THE ENSEMBLE MEAN IS UP SLIGHTLY FOR SAT-
TUE. AT THIS POINT IT'S HARD TO PINPOINT A PERIOD OF GREATEST
FLOODING THREAT, BUT IT'S MORE LIKELY GOING TO BE SUN/MON AS SOILS
SATURATE. NBM POPS GENERALLY HIGH CHANCE TO LOW LIKELY AND DIDN'T
MAKE MANY CHANGES. THE WAY THE PATTERN SEEMS TO BE DEVELOPING, THE
FURTHER SOUTH YOU GO, THE HIGHER THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY
BE. OVERALL WOULD EXPECT 1-1.5" BEING THE AVERAGE WITH SOME AREAS,
ESPECIALLY OVER FAR SW NM WHERE 2-3" ARE POSSIBLE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLING DOWN NICELY WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD
COVER AND PRECIPITATION. MOST AREAS BY SUNDAY WILL HAVE A TOUGH
TIME GETTING OUT OF THE 70S WITH SOME 60S POSSIBLE IN THE AREAS
WITH THE HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS.
THERE COULD CONTINUE TO BE SOME RAIN CHANCES CONTINUING EVEN INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, BUT THIS WILL DEPEND ON IF THE UPPER FLOW
STAYS MORE SW LIKE THE EC WHICH TAPS INTO DRIER AIR OR THE GFS
WHICH IS MORE SOUTHERLY AND CONTINUES TO TAP SOME SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE. KEPT SOME 20 POPS GOING INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH
THIS CHANCE.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 535 PM MDT THU OCT 9 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. GUSTINESS
SETTLES DOWN TO START THE PERIOD WITH E-SE WINDS AOB 10KTS THROUGH
THE AM. SOME GUSTINESS RETURNS TOMORROW AFTERNOON TO THE UPPER
TEENS. FEW-SCT070 LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT WITH DRY CONDITIONS
PERSISTING FOR FRIDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1124 AM MDT THU OCT 9 2025
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
MIN RH'S IN THE 30S EARLY ON BUT BY SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY WILL BE UP
INTO THE 40S TO 60S. GENERALLY DRY THROUGH FRIDAY, BUT PRECIP WILL
START MOVING IN EARLY SATURDAY FROM THE WEST AND SPREAD EAST BY
EARLY SUNDAY. CHANCES FOR RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS POSSIBLE LEADING
TO FLOODING. THE RAIN LOOKS MORE STRATIFORM WITH ISOLATED EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS, SO IT WILL BE MORE OF A MODERATE, PROLONGED RAIN
EVENT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 86 68 88 67 / 10 10 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 81 57 84 60 / 20 10 10 0
LAS CRUCES 82 63 83 62 / 10 10 10 0
ALAMOGORDO 82 62 84 61 / 10 10 10 0
CLOUDCROFT 60 45 63 46 / 10 10 10 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 79 62 81 60 / 10 10 10 10
SILVER CITY 76 57 76 56 / 20 10 10 20
DEMING 84 65 85 63 / 10 10 10 10
LORDSBURG 84 65 83 61 / 10 0 0 10
WEST EL PASO METRO 84 68 87 66 / 10 10 0 0
DELL CITY 84 60 87 62 / 10 10 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 88 65 91 67 / 20 10 0 0
LOMA LINDA 77 60 81 60 / 20 10 0 0
FABENS 86 65 90 66 / 20 10 0 0
SANTA TERESA 83 65 86 64 / 0 10 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 82 65 85 64 / 10 10 10 0
JORNADA RANGE 81 63 83 61 / 10 10 10 0
HATCH 84 64 86 63 / 10 10 10 0
COLUMBUS 86 66 86 64 / 10 10 10 10
OROGRANDE 81 61 83 61 / 0 10 0 0
MAYHILL 70 49 74 53 / 10 10 10 0
MESCALERO 71 50 75 51 / 10 10 10 0
TIMBERON 68 47 71 49 / 10 10 10 0
WINSTON 71 52 75 51 / 20 10 10 10
HILLSBORO 78 59 82 58 / 20 10 10 10
SPACEPORT 80 60 83 59 / 10 10 10 0
LAKE ROBERTS 76 54 77 52 / 30 10 10 20
HURLEY 78 58 79 57 / 20 10 10 10
CLIFF 84 62 83 59 / 20 10 10 20
MULE CREEK 80 58 78 56 / 20 10 10 20
FAYWOOD 77 60 78 58 / 20 10 10 10
ANIMAS 85 64 84 62 / 10 10 10 10
HACHITA 83 63 83 61 / 10 10 10 10
ANTELOPE WELLS 85 62 84 61 / 10 10 10 10
CLOVERDALE 81 61 79 59 / 10 10 10 10
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...39-ARONSON
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