378
FXUS64 KEPZ 100353
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
953 PM MDT THU OCT 9 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 946 PM MDT THU OCT 9 2025
- DRIER AND SOMEWHAT BREEZY CONDITIONS FRIDAY.
- REMNANT TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL FLOW OVER THE AREA SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY, BRINGING RAIN AND STORM CHANCES. HEAVY RAIN
THREAT WILL BE FAVORED IN SOUTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS WITH
FLOODING POSSIBLE.
- TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY,
THEN COOLING EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 946 PM MDT THU OCT 9 2025
FOR FRI, THE UPPER HIGH REMAINS OVER W TX, KEEPING MUCH OF THE
MOISTURE TO THE WEST IN AZ. PWS STAY ABOVE NORMAL (ABOUT 1.1";
NORMAL IS AROUND 0.6"), BUT THE MID-LEVEL CAPPING WILL LIMIT OUR
INSTABILITY AND CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. AS A RESULT, MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE SHORT-TERM. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
STAYS SOMEWHAT TIGHT FOR FRI, ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN AREAS CLOSER TO
WHERE SURFACE TROUGHING DEVELOPS IN SONORA/SOUTHERN AZ. E-SE WINDS
REMAIN ON THE BREEZY SIDE, GENERALLY 10-20 MPH, STRONGER NEAR THE NM-
AZ BORDER.
FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK, DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE ADVECTS
INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST ASSOCIATED WITH TWO SEPARATE
TROPICAL FEATURES. FIRST IS TS PRISCILLA, WHICH CONTINUES TO WEAKEN
OFF THE COAST OF BAJA TONIGHT. ITS MOISTURE GETS SCOOPED UP BY AN
ADVANCING PACIFIC TROUGH FRI-SAT, BRINGING HIGHLY ANOMALOUS MOISTURE
TO AZ/FOUR CORNERS REGION. AS THE TROUGH PROGRESSES EASTWARD SAT
NIGHT/SUN, WE'LL GET THAT NEAR-RECORD MOISTURE CONTENT AS WELL. PWS
ARE MODELED TO PEAK AROUND 1.5" AT EPZ SAT NIGHT ACCORDING TO THE
LATEST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE, SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY.
RECORD PWS FOR MID-OCT ARE ABOUT 1.2", SO THERE'S A HIGH CHANCE WE
BREAK A DAILY RECORD THIS WEEKEND AND A LOW CHANCE OF SETTING A
MONTHLY PW RECORD, WHICH IS AROUND 1.6".
THE PASSING TROUGH WILL PROVIDE SOME LIFT FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP, BUT
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER COULD LIMIT INSTABILITY AND LEAVE US WITH MORE
STRATIFORM PRECIP. RAIN/STORM CHANCES INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
SAT/OVERNIGHT WITH WESTERN AREAS FAVORED TO SEE FLASH FLOODING INTO
SUN AM. THROUGH 12Z SUN, WPC HAS A SLIGHT ERO ALONG AND WEST OF THE
DIVIDE WITH A MEDIUM CHANCE OF EXCEEDING 1". RELATIVELY FAST STORM
MOTIONS WILL HELP LIMIT THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT, BUT ANY STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING EFFICIENT RAIN RATES OF 1-2" PER HOUR.
BY SUNDAY AM, MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SECOND TROPICAL FEATURE
(NOW TS RAYMOND) MEETS UP WITH PRISCILLA'S REMNANT MOISTURE ALONG
THE INT'L BORDER. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE EJECTING INTO THE PLAINS
ON SUNDAY, SO WE WON'T HAVE AS MUCH FORCING WITH THIS OTHER BATCH OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE, AT LEAST INITIALLY. THERE'S SOME UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING WHERE THE DEEPEST MOISTURE SETS UP SUN, BUT WE WILL MOST
LIKELY SEE CONTINUED NEAR-RECORD PWS. EMBEDDED VORTS/SHORTWAVES MAY
PASS THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY, OVERLAPPING WHERE THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE IS LOCATED. AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-10 IN NM ARE MOST
FAVORED TO SEE HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING ON SUNDAY, WHERE A
HIGH-END SLIGHT ERO IS IN PLACE. 70-90% CHANCE OF 1"+ ARE FORECAST
SUN/SUN NIGHT FROM EL PASO WESTWARD ALONG THE INT'L BORDER, AND 20-
40% OF 2"+. THE FLOOD THREAT LOWERS AS YOU HEAD NORTH AND EAST WHERE
MOISTURE LEVELS ARE LESS IMPRESSIVE. NO FLOOD WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT
AS OF NOW, BUT COULD BE INTRODUCED BY SATURDAY IF THE FORECAST IS
CONSISTENT. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN THIS FLOOD THREAT ON SUNDAY.
ANOTHER FEATURE TO KEEP AN EYE ON IS A SECOND PACIFIC TROUGH DURING
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK, WHICH MAY PROVIDE SOME LIFT AND SCOOP UP
WHAT'S LEFT OF RAYMOND'S MOISTURE. WE'RE UNSURE IF THIS TROUGH WILL
BE CLOSE ENOUGH OR TIMED CORRECTLY TO ENHANCE OUR STORM CHANCES
THROUGH TUE, BUT THE MOISTURE IS MODELED TO BE PULLED NORTHWARD ON
MON. THE FLOOD THREAT REMAINS ON MONDAY FOR MUCH OF THE REGION,
FAVORING AREAS TO THE NORTH AND WEST. THE NBM GIVES THOSE AREAS A
MEDIUM CHANCE OF EXCEEDING 1" MON/MON NIGHT WITH LOWER PROBABILITIES
SOUTH AND EAST. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK, BUT THAT'LL DEPEND ON THE PACIFIC STORM'S BEHAVIOR AND
TRAJECTORY. THE 18Z GFS BRINGS THE LOW SOUTH INTO SOCAL AS AN UPPER
HIGH SITS TO THE EAST, PUMPING SOME MOISTURE IN FROM THE SOUTH
THROUGH MIDWEEK. CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING A BATTLE BETWEEN DRY,
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AROUND THE LOW AND A MOISTURE TAP AROUND THE HIGH
TO END THE PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH SAT.
TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL ON SUNDAY (12Z GFS MOS HAS A HIGH
OF 69 FOR KELP!) DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES, THEN REBOUND
TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL FOR MIDWEEK AS RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 946 PM MDT THU OCT 9 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. E-SE WINDS
AOB 10KTS THROUGH THE AM. SOME GUSTINESS RETURNS FOR THE
AFTERNOON TO THE UPPER TEENS. A BATCH OF MID CLOUDS PROGRESS
NORTHWESTWARD TONIGHT WITH NO RAIN EXPECTED FOR THE TERMINALS.
FEW-SCT CU DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON LIKE WHAT HAPPENED THU.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1124 AM MDT THU OCT 9 2025
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
MIN RH'S IN THE 30S EARLY ON BUT BY SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY WILL BE UP
INTO THE 40S TO 60S. GENERALLY DRY THROUGH FRIDAY, BUT PRECIP WILL
START MOVING IN EARLY SATURDAY FROM THE WEST AND SPREAD EAST BY
EARLY SUNDAY. CHANCES FOR RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS POSSIBLE LEADING
TO FLOODING. THE RAIN LOOKS MORE STRATIFORM WITH ISOLATED EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS, SO IT WILL BE MORE OF A MODERATE, PROLONGED RAIN
EVENT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 86 68 88 67 / 10 10 0 10
SIERRA BLANCA 81 57 84 60 / 20 10 10 0
LAS CRUCES 82 63 83 62 / 10 10 0 10
ALAMOGORDO 82 62 84 61 / 10 10 10 10
CLOUDCROFT 60 45 63 46 / 10 10 10 10
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 79 62 81 60 / 10 10 10 20
SILVER CITY 76 57 76 56 / 20 10 10 20
DEMING 84 65 85 63 / 10 10 0 20
LORDSBURG 84 65 83 61 / 10 0 0 20
WEST EL PASO METRO 84 68 87 66 / 10 10 0 10
DELL CITY 84 60 87 62 / 10 10 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 88 65 91 67 / 20 10 0 10
LOMA LINDA 77 60 81 60 / 20 10 0 10
FABENS 86 65 90 66 / 20 10 0 10
SANTA TERESA 83 65 86 64 / 0 10 0 10
WHITE SANDS HQ 82 65 85 64 / 10 10 0 10
JORNADA RANGE 81 63 83 61 / 10 10 0 10
HATCH 84 64 86 63 / 10 10 10 10
COLUMBUS 86 66 86 64 / 10 10 0 10
OROGRANDE 81 61 83 61 / 0 10 0 10
MAYHILL 70 49 74 53 / 10 10 10 10
MESCALERO 71 50 75 51 / 10 10 10 10
TIMBERON 68 47 71 49 / 10 10 10 10
WINSTON 71 51 75 51 / 20 10 10 20
HILLSBORO 78 59 82 58 / 20 10 10 20
SPACEPORT 80 60 83 59 / 10 10 0 10
LAKE ROBERTS 76 54 77 52 / 30 10 10 30
HURLEY 78 58 79 57 / 20 10 0 20
CLIFF 84 62 83 59 / 20 10 10 30
MULE CREEK 80 58 78 56 / 20 10 10 30
FAYWOOD 77 60 78 58 / 20 10 10 20
ANIMAS 85 64 84 62 / 10 10 0 20
HACHITA 83 63 83 61 / 10 10 0 20
ANTELOPE WELLS 85 62 84 61 / 10 10 10 20
CLOVERDALE 81 61 79 59 / 10 10 10 20
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...39-ARONSON
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