229
FXUS64 KEPZ 301208
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
608 AM MDT THU OCT 30 2025
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 530 AM MDT THU OCT 30 2025
- CHILLY START TO THURSDAY, THEN WARMING UP TO NORMAL FOR LATE
OCTOBER. WARM AND BREEZY WEATHER FOR HALLOWEEN.
- QUIET WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH MOST OF EARLY NOVEMBER. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1100 PM MDT WED OCT 29 2025
THE MOST NOTEWORTHY WEATHER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL OCCUR
TONIGHT WITH IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING AND A CHILLY
MORNING ON THURSDAY. LIGHT/CALM WINDS, DEW POINTS AROUND 20F, AND
CLEAR SKIES UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO FALL TO THE 30S FOR MOST OF THE LOWLANDS. FREEZE WARNINGS
REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THU AM WITH NO CHANGES TO THE PRODUCT IN THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE. MORE WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPS ARE EXPECTED IN
THE ZONES COVERED BY THE WARNING, BUT ISOLATED SPOTS, INCLUDING
THE MESILLA VALLEY, COULD SEE A FREEZE TOO. EL PASO IS EXPECTED TO
REACH THE LOW 40S.
THURSDAY'S HIGHS WILL BE NEAR 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN WED WITH THE
WARMING TREND CONTINUING FOR FRI. BREEZY WEST WINDS DEVELOP ON FRI
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS SOMEWHAT WITH LOW PRESSURE
FORMING OVER NM. AFTERNOON GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FRI.
ANOTHER BACKDOOR FRONT LOOKS TO ARRIVE ON SAT WITH A SLIGHT
COOL DOWN, NOT AS SIGNIFICANT AS THIS MOST RECENT ONE, AND BREEZY
WINDS FOR WEST SLOPES. THEREAFTER, WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN ALOFT
WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT WINDS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 530 AM MDT THU OCT 30 2025
VMC THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD UNDER DRY, NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
SKIES SKC TODAY AND TONIGHT. SURFACE WINDS MOSTLY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AOB 5 KNOTS. WEST FLOW RESUMES FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 530 AM MDT THU OCT 30 2025
LOW FIRE DANGER TODAY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. MIN RH 10-20% WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS.
VENTILATION RATES MOSTLY POOR TODAY. INCREASING WINDS OUT OF THE
WEST ON FRIDAY, 15 TO 20 MPH LEADING TO MORE ELEVATED FIRE DANGER
AND VERY GOOD VENTILATION.
WEAK FRONTAL INTRUSION FROM THE EAST THIS WEEKEND, MINIMAL
AFFECTS ON WIND OR TEMPERATURE. PROLONGED PERIOD OF WARM AND DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NOVEMBER, INCREASING ERCS AND FUEL
DRYNESS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 50 82 53 77 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 42 77 44 70 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 44 79 45 74 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 43 76 44 74 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 34 56 34 52 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 45 77 45 72 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 45 71 44 72 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 44 81 44 78 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 46 77 44 76 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 52 79 52 74 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 38 79 41 72 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 47 83 49 77 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 46 72 46 67 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 45 81 48 76 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 47 79 46 74 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 50 79 50 74 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 42 79 43 74 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 42 82 43 77 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 47 82 49 78 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 42 77 42 71 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 37 69 36 61 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 37 67 36 64 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 36 64 35 61 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 37 73 38 69 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 45 78 46 74 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 40 77 41 74 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 39 72 36 74 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 43 74 42 74 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 43 78 41 79 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 43 74 41 75 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 45 74 45 72 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 47 79 46 77 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 45 79 44 77 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 49 79 46 77 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 50 73 46 73 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR SALT BASIN-
SOUTHERN HUDSPETH HIGHLANDS.
NM...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR EAST CENTRAL
TULAROSA BASIN/ALAMOGORDO-NORTHERN DONA ANA COUNTY-OTERO
MESA-SOUTHEAST TULAROSA BASIN-UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY-WEST
CENTRAL TULAROSA BASIN/WHITE SANDS.
FORECASTER...30-DENNHARDT
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