013
FXUS64 KEPZ 310441
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1041 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1016 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2025
- WARM AND BREEZY WEATHER FOR HALLOWEEN.
- QUIET WEATHER PATTERN INTO EARLY NOVEMBER. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1016 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2025
FOR HALLOWEEN, AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST, INDUCING LOW PRESSURE IN SE NM. BREEZY AFTERNOON WINDS
OF 10-20 MPH ARE FORECAST DUE TO THE DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT.
850MB FLOW OF 20-30KTS IS MODELED LATER IN THE DAY FROM THE WEST
AS SFC GUSTS REACH NEAR 30 MPH, FAVORING AREAS ALONG AND JUST N OF
THE I-10 CORRIDOR. WINDS STAY A BIT BREEZY THROUGH THE EVENING,
BECOMING LIGHT BY SAT AM. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR FRI.
A BACKDOOR FRONT ARRIVES ON SAT, NOT AS STRONG OR PROGRESSIVE AS
THE LAST ONE. A SLIGHT COOLDOWN IS FORECAST E OF THE RGV FOR SAT
BEHIND THE FRONT. NW FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES FOR SAT WITH LIGHTER
WINDS BEFORE UPPER RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE REGION. DRY AND WARM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK UNDER WEAK
RIDGING/ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THE NEXT SYSTEM TO KEEP AN EYE ON IS A
PACIFIC TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE ROCKIES LATE IN THE PERIOD.
WE'LL SEE HOW DEEP THE SYSTEM IS AND ITS COLD FRONT, BUT IT
DOESN'T LOOK TO BE VERY IMPACTFUL FOR OUR AREA AT THIS TIME OTHER
THAN COOLER TEMPS AND BREEZIER E WINDS. PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED
FROM THIS DISTURBANCE.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1016 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS REMAIN
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE AM, INCREASING DURING THE
AFTERNOON FROM THE W. GUSTS NEAR 25KTS ARE FORECAST OUTSIDE OF
KTCS WITH A LOW CHANCE OF BLDU. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW FOR ANY
MENTION OF BLDU IN THIS TAF CYCLE. MAINLY SKC EXPECTED.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1112 AM MDT THU OCT 30 2025
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS
NEAR TO ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. MIN RH'S WILL FALL INTO THE
LOWER TO MID TEENS FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA EACH AFTERNOON,
BUT TEMPERATURES WILL FALL QUICKLY EACH NIGHT AND ALLOW RH'S TO
GET INTO THE 40S AND 50S LOWLANDS WITH TYPICAL COLD AREAS GETTING
INTO THE 70S/80S. WINDS WILL NOT BE MUCH OF A CONCERN EXCEPT FOR
FRIDAY WHEN SPEEDS OF 10-20 WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN THE AFTERNOON. VENT RATES FRI WILL MAINLY BE VERY GOOD AND FALL
TO FAIR TO GOOD FOR SAT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 82 52 77 49 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 76 44 71 39 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 78 45 75 42 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 76 44 74 44 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 55 34 53 34 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 77 45 74 44 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 71 43 72 44 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 81 43 79 42 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 77 44 76 45 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 80 52 75 49 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 79 42 72 38 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 83 49 78 45 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 72 47 68 44 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 81 48 76 45 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 79 46 74 44 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 80 51 75 48 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 79 42 75 42 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 83 43 79 42 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 83 49 79 47 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 76 43 72 41 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 69 36 62 38 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 67 36 65 37 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 64 36 61 35 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 73 37 71 38 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 78 46 75 46 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 78 41 74 41 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 71 36 74 39 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 74 41 74 42 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 78 41 79 42 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 73 41 75 42 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 74 46 74 44 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 79 46 77 44 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 78 44 76 42 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 79 46 77 46 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 73 48 73 49 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...39-ARONSON
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