843
FXUS64 KEPZ 311206
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
606 AM MDT FRI OCT 31 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 529 AM MDT FRI OCT 31 2025
- WARM AND BREEZY WEATHER FOR HALLOWEEN.
- QUIET WEATHER PATTERN INTO EARLY NOVEMBER. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1016 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2025
FOR HALLOWEEN, AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST, INDUCING LOW PRESSURE IN SE NM. BREEZY AFTERNOON WINDS
OF 10-20 MPH ARE FORECAST DUE TO THE DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT.
850MB FLOW OF 20-30KTS IS MODELED LATER IN THE DAY FROM THE WEST
AS SFC GUSTS REACH NEAR 30 MPH, FAVORING AREAS ALONG AND JUST N OF
THE I-10 CORRIDOR. WINDS STAY A BIT BREEZY THROUGH THE EVENING,
BECOMING LIGHT BY SAT AM. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR FRI.
A BACKDOOR FRONT ARRIVES ON SAT, NOT AS STRONG OR PROGRESSIVE AS
THE LAST ONE. A SLIGHT COOLDOWN IS FORECAST E OF THE RGV FOR SAT
BEHIND THE FRONT. NW FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES FOR SAT WITH LIGHTER
WINDS BEFORE UPPER RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE REGION. DRY AND WARM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK UNDER WEAK
RIDGING/ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THE NEXT SYSTEM TO KEEP AN EYE ON IS A
PACIFIC TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE ROCKIES LATE IN THE PERIOD.
WE'LL SEE HOW DEEP THE SYSTEM IS AND ITS COLD FRONT, BUT IT
DOESN'T LOOK TO BE VERY IMPACTFUL FOR OUR AREA AT THIS TIME OTHER
THAN COOLER TEMPS AND BREEZIER E WINDS. PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED
FROM THIS DISTURBANCE.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 529 AM MDT FRI OCT 31 2025
WE WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT KEEPS OUR CEILINGS UNLIMITED. WE WILL HAVE
SOME LOW END BREEZY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE RANGE OF
27015G25KT. I CAN'T RULE SOME ISOLATED AREAS OF BLOWING DUST
ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN NEW MEXICO NEAR KDMN AND KLSB, BUT WIDE
SPREAD BLOWING DUST IS NOT EXPECTED. THE BREEZY WINDS WILL DROP
OFF A LITTLE AFTER SUNSET.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1112 AM MDT THU OCT 30 2025
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS
NEAR TO ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. MIN RH'S WILL FALL INTO THE
LOWER TO MID TEENS FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA EACH AFTERNOON,
BUT TEMPERATURES WILL FALL QUICKLY EACH NIGHT AND ALLOW RH'S TO
GET INTO THE 40S AND 50S LOWLANDS WITH TYPICAL COLD AREAS GETTING
INTO THE 70S/80S. WINDS WILL NOT BE MUCH OF A CONCERN EXCEPT FOR
FRIDAY WHEN SPEEDS OF 10-20 WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN THE AFTERNOON. VENT RATES FRI WILL MAINLY BE VERY GOOD AND FALL
TO FAIR TO GOOD FOR SAT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 52 77 49 79 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 44 71 39 74 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 45 75 42 75 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 44 74 44 75 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 34 53 34 58 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 45 74 44 75 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 43 72 44 74 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 43 79 42 79 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 44 76 45 77 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 52 75 49 76 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 42 72 38 77 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 49 78 45 82 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 47 68 44 70 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 48 76 45 79 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 46 74 44 75 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 51 75 48 77 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 42 75 42 75 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 43 79 42 79 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 49 79 47 79 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 43 72 41 73 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 36 62 38 72 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 36 65 37 69 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 36 61 35 65 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 37 71 38 72 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 46 75 46 77 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 41 74 41 75 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 36 74 39 76 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 41 74 42 75 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 41 79 42 80 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 41 75 42 77 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 46 74 44 74 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 46 77 44 79 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 44 76 42 77 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 46 77 46 79 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 48 73 49 75 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...15-BRICE
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