310
FXUS64 KEPZ 311714
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1114 AM MDT FRI OCT 31 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1113 AM MDT FRI OCT 31 2025
- WARM AND BREEZY WEATHER FOR HALLOWEEN.
- QUIET WEATHER PATTERN INTO EARLY NOVEMBER. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1113 AM MDT FRI OCT 31 2025
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS AND ENSEMBLES THROUGH MUCH OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA WILL ALLOW FOR A
BACK DOOR FRONT TO MOVE IN OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY WHICH WILL DROP
HIGHS ABOUT 2 DEGREES OUT WEST TO AROUND 10 DEGREES IN THE EAST.
NO MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE SO DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH
JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS. WINDS WILL REMAIN UP THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z
THEN GRADUALLY SHIFT AROUND TO THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST EAST OF THE
DIVIDE. THE WINDS WILL HELP OVERNIGHT LOWS STAY A LITTLE WARMER
THAN RECENT DAYS, AT LEAST OUT EAST. GOING INTO SUNDAY, UPPER
RIDGE WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE AREA AND BEGIN A SLOW
WARM UP GOING INTO THE WORK WEEK.
A MORE WESTERLY FLOW TAKES OVER BY TUESDAY AND WITH WEST WINDS
DOWN TO THE SURFACE, HIGHS WILL GET INTO THE UPPER 70S TO POSSIBLY
THE MID 80S IN THE LOWEST ELEVATIONS. RECORD HIGHS AT KELP ARE
MAINLY 84-87, MAY FLIRT WITH ONE OR TWO, BUT RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS
LIKE THE AREA WILL STAY JUST SHY OF RECORDS. DRY AIR IN PLACE
THROUGH NEXT WEEK WILL ALLOW OVERNIGHT LOWS TO FALL OFF QUICKLY
AND DID LOWER NBM LOWS SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE COLD VALLEYS AND A FEW
DEGREES FOR SOME OF THE LOWLAND AREAS. THE ONLY TIME WHEN THERE'S
ANY NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCE IN THE MODELS COMES LATE NEXT WEEK WITH
A QUICK MOVING UPPER TROUGH PASSING THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.
LITTLE EFFECT FROM THIS, BUT A FASTER SOLUTION AS SUPPORTED BY
ENSEMBLE MEANS WOULD MEAN A SLIGHT COOL DOWN BY FRIDAY BUT IT
WOULD BE MINIMAL NO MATTER WHICH SOLUTION VERIFIES.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1113 AM MDT FRI OCT 31 2025
P6SM SKC-SCT250 THROUGH THE PERIOD. BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
OF 10-20G30KTS THROUGH SUNSET THEN GRADUALLY DECREASING AND
SHIFTING TO THE N THEN NE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1113 AM MDT FRI OCT 31 2025
AFTER WINDS DIE OFF OVERNIGHT, LITTLE FIRE THREAT IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEKEND BEFORE WARMING TO ABOUT 5-10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. MIN RH'S WILL BE FALLING
INTO THE TEENS EACH DAY WITH MODEST RECOVERIES INTO THE 40S AND
50S OVERNIGHT DUE TO GOOD DIURNAL COOLING. MAINLY FAIR VENT RATES
SATURDAY AND POOR ON SUNDAY AS WINDS DECREASE AND UPPER RIDGE
MOVES OVERHEAD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 51 75 46 79 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 44 68 39 76 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 44 74 40 76 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 44 73 40 75 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 33 52 34 60 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 46 72 43 76 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 44 72 46 76 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 43 77 39 79 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 42 77 41 79 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 50 74 45 77 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 42 70 36 79 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 45 74 43 83 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 47 67 42 71 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 44 74 42 80 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 47 74 42 76 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 51 73 46 78 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 40 74 37 76 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 42 77 40 80 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 46 78 43 80 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 43 70 38 74 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 34 59 38 74 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 32 63 35 71 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 30 60 32 66 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 32 69 35 73 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 44 73 43 75 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 39 73 38 76 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 25 73 27 78 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 41 73 39 76 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 33 78 29 79 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 27 74 30 77 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 42 73 42 75 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 44 77 42 81 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 43 76 40 79 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 46 76 44 80 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 46 73 46 77 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...26-GRZYWACZ
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