546
FXUS64 KEPZ 312332
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
532 PM MDT FRI OCT 31 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 528 PM MDT FRI OCT 31 2025
- QUIET WEATHER PATTERN INTO EARLY NOVEMBER WITH NO PRECIPITATION
IN THE FORECAST.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1113 AM MDT FRI OCT 31 2025
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS AND ENSEMBLES THROUGH MUCH OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA WILL ALLOW FOR A
BACK DOOR FRONT TO MOVE IN OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY WHICH WILL DROP
HIGHS ABOUT 2 DEGREES OUT WEST TO AROUND 10 DEGREES IN THE EAST.
NO MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE SO DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH
JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS. WINDS WILL REMAIN UP THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z
THEN GRADUALLY SHIFT AROUND TO THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST EAST OF THE
DIVIDE. THE WINDS WILL HELP OVERNIGHT LOWS STAY A LITTLE WARMER
THAN RECENT DAYS, AT LEAST OUT EAST. GOING INTO SUNDAY, UPPER
RIDGE WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE AREA AND BEGIN A SLOW
WARM UP GOING INTO THE WORK WEEK.
A MORE WESTERLY FLOW TAKES OVER BY TUESDAY AND WITH WEST WINDS
DOWN TO THE SURFACE, HIGHS WILL GET INTO THE UPPER 70S TO POSSIBLY
THE MID 80S IN THE LOWEST ELEVATIONS. RECORD HIGHS AT KELP ARE
MAINLY 84-87, MAY FLIRT WITH ONE OR TWO, BUT RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS
LIKE THE AREA WILL STAY JUST SHY OF RECORDS. DRY AIR IN PLACE
THROUGH NEXT WEEK WILL ALLOW OVERNIGHT LOWS TO FALL OFF QUICKLY
AND DID LOWER NBM LOWS SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE COLD VALLEYS AND A FEW
DEGREES FOR SOME OF THE LOWLAND AREAS. THE ONLY TIME WHEN THERE'S
ANY NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCE IN THE MODELS COMES LATE NEXT WEEK WITH
A QUICK MOVING UPPER TROUGH PASSING THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.
LITTLE EFFECT FROM THIS, BUT A FASTER SOLUTION AS SUPPORTED BY
ENSEMBLE MEANS WOULD MEAN A SLIGHT COOL DOWN BY FRIDAY BUT IT
WOULD BE MINIMAL NO MATTER WHICH SOLUTION VERIFIES.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 528 PM MDT FRI OCT 31 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS TO
25KTS LINGER THIS EVENING FROM W OUTSIDE OF KTCS BEFORE SUBSIDING
OVERNIGHT TO AOB 10KTS. LIGHT WINDS PERSIST FOR TOMORROW. A BAND
OF CIRRUS MOVES THROUGH TO START THE PERIOD, OTHERWISE SKC
EXPECTED.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1113 AM MDT FRI OCT 31 2025
AFTER WINDS DIE OFF OVERNIGHT, LITTLE FIRE THREAT IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEKEND BEFORE WARMING TO ABOUT 5-10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. MIN RH'S WILL BE FALLING
INTO THE TEENS EACH DAY WITH MODEST RECOVERIES INTO THE 40S AND
50S OVERNIGHT DUE TO GOOD DIURNAL COOLING. MAINLY FAIR VENT RATES
SATURDAY AND POOR ON SUNDAY AS WINDS DECREASE AND UPPER RIDGE
MOVES OVERHEAD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 75 46 79 48 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 68 39 76 43 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 74 40 76 42 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 73 40 75 42 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 52 34 60 36 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 72 43 76 45 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 72 46 76 48 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 77 39 79 41 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 77 41 79 44 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 74 45 77 47 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 70 36 79 40 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 74 43 83 47 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 67 42 71 46 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 74 42 80 44 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 74 42 76 44 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 73 46 78 48 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 74 37 76 39 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 77 40 80 42 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 78 43 80 46 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 70 38 74 44 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 59 38 74 40 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 63 35 71 37 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 60 32 66 34 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 69 35 73 37 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 73 43 75 45 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 73 38 76 40 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 73 27 78 29 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 73 39 76 42 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 78 29 79 31 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 74 30 77 32 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 73 42 75 44 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 77 42 81 45 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 76 40 79 43 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 76 44 80 47 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 73 46 77 49 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...39-ARONSON
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