896
FXUS64 KEPZ 012320
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
520 PM MDT SAT NOV 1 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 341 PM MDT SAT NOV 1 2025
- QUIET WEATHER PATTERN INTO EARLY NOVEMBER WITH NO PRECIPITATION
IN THE FORECAST.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1055 AM MDT SAT NOV 1 2025
A WEAK COOL FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND
HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE ABOUT 2-10 DEGREES COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY. THIS WILL NOT LAST LONG AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN
THROUGH SUNDAY AND WE START TO SEE A GRADUAL WARMUP GOING INTO
NEXT WEEK. SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO THE WEST
BY TUESDAY ALLOWING THE WARMER AIR TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK
WITH NEAR RECORD HIGHS. MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEANS CONTINUE TO BE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS MAIN SYNOPTIC PATTERN OVER THE AREA
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
NBM TEMPS CONTINUE TO BE WARM ON OVERNIGHT LOWS WITH VERY DRY AIR
IN PLACE, ESPECIALLY IN THE TYPICAL COLD VALLEYS. I ALSO TRENDED
HIGH TEMPS UP A LITTLE BIT AS WE GET INTO TUE-FRI AS WESTERLY
SURFACE WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR ALMOST FULL MIXING, EVEN WITH AN
EARLY NOV SUN ANGLE. RECORD HIGHS IN EL PASO ARE IN THE 84-87
RANGE, THINK WE WILL STAY SHORT OF THESE, BUT A COUPLE DAYS COULD
GET WITHIN A DEGREE OR 2. NO PRECIP EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 519 PM MDT SAT NOV 1 2025
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHT THE PERIOD, WITH BKN250 BECOMING SKC-
SCT250 AFTER 12Z. SURFACE WINDS VARIABLE AOB 7 KNOTS, INCREASING
TO SOUTH/SOUTHWEST 8-12 KNOTS AFTER 18Z.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1055 AM MDT SAT NOV 1 2025
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE THE NORM ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOWLY WARMING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS WITH SOME NEAR RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE BY MIDWEEK. MIN RH'S
WILL BE FALLING INTO THE TEENS, BUT THE WINDS WILL REMAIN WELL
BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. VENT RATES WILL RANGE FROM POOR TO GOOD
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH BETTER RATES FURTHER NORTH.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 46 78 49 83 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 40 74 46 79 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 40 77 43 80 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 36 74 45 80 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 37 59 40 62 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 42 76 45 80 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 47 74 50 75 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 39 79 42 82 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 43 79 45 81 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 45 78 48 81 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 35 77 40 81 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 42 81 45 85 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 39 70 46 75 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 42 79 45 84 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 42 77 45 80 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 43 77 50 81 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 35 76 39 79 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 39 79 41 83 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 43 79 45 82 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 38 73 43 79 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 36 72 44 76 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 36 69 41 74 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 34 67 37 69 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 33 74 38 75 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 44 75 46 79 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 38 75 41 80 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 28 77 31 75 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 39 75 42 76 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 35 79 38 79 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 31 77 33 77 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 40 74 43 76 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 43 79 44 82 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 39 78 43 81 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 43 79 45 82 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 46 77 49 77 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...17-HEFNER
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