801
FXUS64 KEPZ 031650
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
950 AM MST MON NOV 3 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 949 AM MST MON NOV 3 2025
- NO WEATHER IMPACTS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK, WITH NEAR RECORD
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY.
- COLD FRONT AND SIGNIFICANT COOLING POSSIBLE END OF THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 949 AM MST MON NOV 3 2025
WEAK UPPER RIDGING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST IS DRIFTING EAST
TODAY AS SMALL UPPER LOW MOVES OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THIS RIDGING
EVENTUALLY FORMS SUB-TROPICAL HIGH OVER SOUTH TEXAS AND EXPANDS
WEST, CONSOLIDATING WITH THE EAST PACIFIC RIDGE THROUGH THURSDAY.
THIS IS JUST THE LONG WAY OF SAYING ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING THE NEXT
24 HOURS AND PERSISTING INTO THIS WEEKEND.
IN THE SHORTER TERM, VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY. IN FACT HIGHS WILL BE NEAR DAILY RECORD TEMPERATURES FOR
MANY PLACES. TEMPERATURES SLOWLY MODERATE TOWARD THE WEEKEND.
LONGER RANGE, MODELS SHOW STRONG BACK DOOR COLD FRONT PUSHING IN
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING. 850MB TEMPS AND MOS NUMBERS SHOWING
GFS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH COOLING, SOME 10-15 DEGREES FOR SUNDAY
HIGHS. ECMWF/CMC MUCH LESS AGGRESSIVE SHOWING ONLY AROUND 5
DEGREES OF COOLING. THIS WOULD LIKELY TRANSLATE TO GUSTY WINDS
WITH THE FRONT ALSO, WITH GFS LIKELY THE STRONGEST WITH GUSTS.
IT'S SOMETHING TO WATCH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS OF MODEL RUNS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 949 AM MST MON NOV 3 2025
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SKC-SCT250. SURFACE WINDS
MAINLY SOUTH 7-10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON, BECOMING VARIABLE AOB 7
KNOTS TONIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 949 AM MST MON NOV 3 2025
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS, THOUGH THE DRYING OUT OF
FUELS WILL CONTINUE WITH LOWER HUMIDITY. MIN HUMIDITIES WILL
REMAIN IN THE CRITICAL CATEGORY FOR THE LOWLANDS. NO CHANCE OF
RAIN THROUGH THIS WEEKEND, AND TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE
NORMAL. WEST BREEZES EACH AFTERNOON OF 10-15 MPH, BUT BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT COULD BRING WIND SHIFT TO THE EAST AND
STRONGER GUSTS SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY.
MIN RH: LOWLANDS 10-17% THROUGH SATURDAY. MOUNTAINS 13-23% THROUGH
SATURDAY. VENT RATES FAIR-GOOD THROUGH SATURDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 51 84 54 82 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 43 80 48 79 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 44 80 46 79 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 42 80 44 78 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 40 60 40 59 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 46 80 46 77 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 46 74 46 73 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 44 84 43 82 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 46 80 46 78 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 53 81 54 80 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 41 83 44 83 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 48 86 52 85 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 49 75 51 74 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 47 84 51 82 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 47 81 48 79 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 51 82 54 80 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 38 81 39 79 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 41 85 39 82 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 48 85 49 82 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 39 79 42 77 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 43 73 45 72 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 41 72 42 71 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 39 69 41 68 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 39 75 38 73 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 48 81 48 79 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 37 80 37 77 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 33 74 32 73 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 44 77 43 76 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 33 81 32 80 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 28 76 28 75 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 46 77 46 76 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 47 82 48 80 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 45 82 46 80 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 47 82 48 81 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 51 75 51 75 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...17-HEFNER
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