133
FXUS64 KEPZ 032323
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
423 PM MST MON NOV 3 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 430 PM MST MON NOV 3 2025
- NEAR RECORD WARMTH THIS WEEK WITH LOWLAND HIGHS IN THE LOWER
EIGHTIES. DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS.
- COLD FRONT ARRIVES NEXT WEEKEND, BRINGING COOLER AND CLOSER TO
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1100 AM MST MON NOV 3 2025
WEAK UPPER RIDGING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST IS DRIFTING EAST
TODAY AS SMALL UPPER LOW MOVES OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THIS RIDGING
EVENTUALLY FORMS SUB-TROPICAL HIGH OVER SOUTH TEXAS AND EXPANDS
WEST, CONSOLIDATING WITH THE EAST PACIFIC RIDGE THROUGH THURSDAY.
THIS IS JUST THE LONG WAY OF SAYING ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING THE NEXT
24 HOURS AND PERSISTING INTO THIS WEEKEND.
IN THE SHORTER TERM, VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY. IN FACT HIGHS WILL BE NEAR DAILY RECORD TEMPERATURES FOR
MANY PLACES. TEMPERATURES SLOWLY MODERATE TOWARD THE WEEKEND.
LONGER RANGE, MODELS SHOW STRONG BACK DOOR COLD FRONT PUSHING IN
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING. 850MB TEMPS AND MOS NUMBERS SHOWING
GFS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH COOLING, SOME 10-15 DEGREES FOR SUNDAY
HIGHS. ECMWF/CMC MUCH LESS AGGRESSIVE SHOWING ONLY AROUND 5
DEGREES OF COOLING. THIS WOULD LIKELY TRANSLATE TO GUSTY WINDS
WITH THE FRONT ALSO, WITH GFS LIKELY THE STRONGEST WITH GUSTS.
IT'S SOMETHING TO WATCH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS OF MODEL RUNS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 430 PM MST MON NOV 3 2025
VMC THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD UNDER DRY, SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
SKIES FEW-SCT250 TONIGHT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE SURFACE WINDS
OVERNIGHT, BECOMING WEST 5 TO 10 KNOTS TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1100 AM MST MON NOV 3 2025
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS, THOUGH THE DRYING OUT OF
FUELS WILL CONTINUE WITH LOWER HUMIDITY. MIN HUMIDITIES WILL
REMAIN IN THE CRITICAL CATEGORY FOR THE LOWLANDS. NO CHANCE OF
RAIN THROUGH THIS WEEKEND, AND TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE
NORMAL. WEST BREEZES EACH AFTERNOON OF 10-15 MPH, BUT BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT COULD BRING WIND SHIFT TO THE EAST AND
STRONGER GUSTS SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY.
MIN RH: LOWLANDS 10-17% THROUGH SATURDAY. MOUNTAINS 13-23%
THROUGH SATURDAY. VENT RATES FAIR-GOOD THROUGH SATURDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 53 83 54 82 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 46 80 48 79 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 46 80 45 79 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 48 80 44 78 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 41 60 40 59 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 47 79 46 77 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 48 74 45 73 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 46 84 43 82 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 48 79 46 78 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 55 81 54 80 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 43 83 44 83 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 50 86 52 85 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 51 75 51 74 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 49 84 50 82 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 49 80 48 79 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 54 82 53 80 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 46 80 39 79 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 45 84 39 82 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 49 85 49 82 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 46 79 42 77 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 45 73 44 72 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 44 71 42 71 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 41 68 41 68 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 40 75 37 73 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 49 81 48 79 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 44 80 37 77 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 43 74 32 73 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 45 78 43 76 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 46 80 32 80 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 44 76 28 75 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 48 77 46 76 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 49 81 48 80 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 46 81 45 80 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 49 82 48 81 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 52 75 50 75 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...30-DENNHARDT
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