491
FXUS64 KEPZ 040503
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1003 PM MST MON NOV 3 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1000 PM MST MON NOV 3 2025
- NEAR RECORD WARMTH THIS WEEK WITH LOWLAND HIGHS IN THE LOWER
EIGHTIES. DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS.
- COLD FRONT ARRIVES NEXT WEEKEND, BRINGING COOLER AND MORE
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1000 PM MST MON NOV 3 2025
OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN SIGNALING VERY QUIET WEATHER FOR OUR
LOCAL AREA NEXT FEW DAYS. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT ACROSS S TX WILL
SLOWLY SUBSIDE, FOLLOWED BY A STRONG HIGH-AMPLITUDE RIDGING
PATTERN ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. LATE THIS WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
500 MB JET FLOW REMAINS FIXED WELL TO OUR NORTH AND UNLIKELY TO
DRIVE ANY SENSIBLE CHANGES IN THE WEATHER THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN QUITE A BIT ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. LOWLAND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S
ARE 8 TO 12 DEGREES WARMER THAN CLIMATE NORMALS. A FEW LOCATIONS
MAY BE NEAR OR AT DAILY RECORDS TOMORROW. EL PASO'S DAILY RECORD
FOR NOVEMBER 4 IS 86 DEGREES (1988). FORECAST HIGH IS 84 DEGREES.
LIGHT WEST FLOW, DRY CONDITIONS, AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WILL LINGER THROUGH FRIDAY.
NEXT COLD AIR OUTBREAK ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS TIMED FOR NEXT
WEEKEND WITH THE GFS DEPICTING A STRONG 1040+ SURFACE HIGH OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH OUR
REGION, ARRIVING FROM THE EAST AS A "BACKDOOR" FRONT SOMETIME
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. PATTERN RECOGNITION SUGGESTS THIS WILL
BE ONE OF OUR STRONGER COOL AIR BLASTS OF THE SEASON SO FAR.
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STRONG WINDS ALONG WEST SLOPES OF MOUNTAINS
AND A 10-15 DEGREE DROP IN TEMPERATURES. THIS WOULD ESSENTIALLY
BRING US BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR EARLY NOVEMBER. ANOTHER CHILLY
MORNING NEXT MONDAY IS ALSO POSSIBLE. NBM HAS LIKELY NOT CAPTURED
THE DETAILED WIND GUSTS AND TEMPERATURE SWINGS, AS CONFLICTING
LONG-TERM MODELS TEND TO BLUR EXTREMES, WHICH ARE MORE COMMON
WITH COLD FRONTS.
NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NOVEMBER.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1000 PM MST MON NOV 3 2025
VMC THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD UNDER DRY, SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
SKIES FEW-SCT250 TONIGHT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE SURFACE WINDS
OVERNIGHT, BECOMING WEST 5 TO 10 KNOTS TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1000 AM MST MON NOV 3 2025
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS, THOUGH THE DRYING OUT OF
FUELS WILL CONTINUE WITH LOWER HUMIDITY. MIN HUMIDITIES WILL
REMAIN IN THE CRITICAL CATEGORY FOR THE LOWLANDS. NO CHANCE OF
RAIN THROUGH THIS WEEKEND, AND TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE
NORMAL. WEST BREEZES EACH AFTERNOON OF 10-15 MPH, BUT BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT COULD BRING WIND SHIFT TO THE EAST AND
STRONGER GUSTS SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY.
MIN RH: LOWLANDS 10-17% THROUGH SATURDAY. MOUNTAINS 13-23%
THROUGH SATURDAY. VENT RATES FAIR-GOOD THROUGH SATURDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 84 54 82 53 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 80 48 79 47 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 81 45 79 44 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 80 47 78 46 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 60 40 59 39 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 80 46 77 45 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 74 45 73 45 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 84 44 82 43 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 79 46 77 45 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 81 54 80 53 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 83 44 83 43 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 86 53 85 51 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 76 51 74 50 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 84 50 82 49 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 81 47 79 47 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 82 53 80 52 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 81 43 78 43 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 84 43 82 42 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 85 50 82 48 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 79 46 77 46 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 73 45 72 42 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 71 42 70 41 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 68 42 68 40 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 75 37 72 37 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 81 47 79 46 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 81 42 77 41 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 74 39 73 39 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 78 43 76 43 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 81 43 79 43 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 76 42 75 41 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 77 47 76 46 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 82 47 80 46 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 82 45 79 44 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 82 47 81 47 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 75 50 75 49 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...30-DENNHARDT
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