103
FXUS64 KEPZ 041155
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
455 AM MST TUE NOV 4 2025
..NEW AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 427 AM MST TUE NOV 4 2025
- NEAR RECORD WARMTH THIS WEEK WITH LOWLAND HIGHS IN THE LOWER
EIGHTIES. DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS.
- COLD FRONT ARRIVES NEXT WEEKEND, BRINGING COOLER AND MORE
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1000 PM MST MON NOV 3 2025
OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN SIGNALING VERY QUIET WEATHER FOR OUR
LOCAL AREA NEXT FEW DAYS. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT ACROSS S TX WILL
SLOWLY SUBSIDE, FOLLOWED BY A STRONG HIGH-AMPLITUDE RIDGING
PATTERN ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. LATE THIS WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
500 MB JET FLOW REMAINS FIXED WELL TO OUR NORTH AND UNLIKELY TO
DRIVE ANY SENSIBLE CHANGES IN THE WEATHER THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN QUITE A BIT ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. LOWLAND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S
ARE 8 TO 12 DEGREES WARMER THAN CLIMATE NORMALS. A FEW LOCATIONS
MAY BE NEAR OR AT DAILY RECORDS TOMORROW. EL PASO'S DAILY RECORD
FOR NOVEMBER 4 IS 86 DEGREES (1988). FORECAST HIGH IS 84 DEGREES.
LIGHT WEST FLOW, DRY CONDITIONS, AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WILL LINGER THROUGH FRIDAY.
NEXT COLD AIR OUTBREAK ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS TIMED FOR NEXT
WEEKEND WITH THE GFS DEPICTING A STRONG 1040+ SURFACE HIGH OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH OUR
REGION, ARRIVING FROM THE EAST AS A "BACKDOOR" FRONT SOMETIME
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. PATTERN RECOGNITION SUGGESTS THIS WILL
BE ONE OF OUR STRONGER COOL AIR BLASTS OF THE SEASON SO FAR.
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STRONG WINDS ALONG WEST SLOPES OF MOUNTAINS
AND A 10-15 DEGREE DROP IN TEMPERATURES. THIS WOULD ESSENTIALLY
BRING US BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR EARLY NOVEMBER. ANOTHER CHILLY
MORNING NEXT MONDAY IS ALSO POSSIBLE. NBM HAS LIKELY NOT CAPTURED
THE DETAILED WIND GUSTS AND TEMPERATURE SWINGS, AS CONFLICTING
LONG-TERM MODELS TEND TO BLUR EXTREMES, WHICH ARE MORE COMMON
WITH COLD FRONTS.
NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NOVEMBER.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 427 AM MST TUE NOV 4 2025
WE WILL HAVE VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT. WE WILL SEE SOME
HIGH CLOUDS, BUT IN GENERAL, OUR CEILINGS WILL BE UNLIMITED TODAY
AND TONIGHT. OUR LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING, WILL BE
MORE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST BY THIS AFTERNOON AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.
WE COULD SEE SOME LOW END GUSTY WINDS AT KDMN FOR A FEW HOURS THIS
AFTERNOON. THE LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS LOOK TO CONTINUE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO WEDNESDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 427 AM MST TUE NOV 4 2025
WE WILL CONTINUE WITH OUR LOW FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS WEEK.
WINDS OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS WILL BE LIGHT, BUT MIN RH'S WILL BE ON
THE DRY SIDE OF THINGS. MIN RH'S WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TEENS IN
THE LOWLANDS TO NEAR 20% IN AREA MOUNTAINS TODAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. WE STILL DON'T HAVE ANY RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH THIS COMING WEEKEND. EARLY ON SUNDAY MORNING, A BACKDOOR
(EAST TO WEST MOVING) COLD FRONT WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT AROUND TO
THE EAST, AND WE WILL HAVE SOME STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS ON THE
WEST SLOPES OF AREA MOUNTAINS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 54 82 53 83 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 48 79 47 79 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 45 79 44 79 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 47 78 46 78 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 40 59 39 58 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 46 77 45 78 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 45 73 45 73 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 44 82 43 83 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 46 77 45 77 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 54 80 53 81 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 44 83 43 83 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 53 85 51 86 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 51 74 50 74 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 50 82 49 83 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 47 79 47 79 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 53 80 52 81 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 43 78 43 80 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 43 82 42 83 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 50 82 48 83 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 46 77 46 78 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 45 72 42 72 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 42 70 41 69 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 42 68 40 67 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 37 72 37 75 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 47 79 46 80 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 42 77 41 79 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 39 73 39 73 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 43 76 43 76 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 43 79 43 79 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 42 75 41 74 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 47 76 46 76 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 47 80 46 80 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 45 79 44 80 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 47 81 47 81 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 50 75 49 74 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...15-BRICE
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