065
FXUS64 KEPZ 041702
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1002 AM MST TUE NOV 4 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1000 AM MST TUE NOV 4 2025
- NEAR RECORD WARMTH THIS WEEK WITH LOWLAND HIGHS IN THE LOWER
EIGHTIES. DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS.
- COLD FRONT ARRIVES NEXT WEEKEND, BRINGING COOLER AND MORE
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1000 AM MST TUE NOV 4 2025
A VERY BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE BORDERLAND THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH A ZONAL FLOW CONTINUING. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN WARM
WITH WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WHICH COULD APPROACH SOME RECORDS AS
HIGHS GET INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S OVER THE LOWLANDS.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL OFF QUICKLY MOST NIGHTS WITH DRY AIR IN
PLACE AND LOWS ARE ABLE TO FALL OFF INTO THE 30S AND 40S AT NIGHT.
NBM HIGHS SEEM FAIRLY REASONABLE, MAYBE A DEGREE OR 2 COOL WITH
THE WEST WINDS. LOWS FOR MANY AREAS DO CONTINUE TO LOOK ABOUT 3-5
DEGREES TOO WARM AND EVEN MORE IN THE TYPICAL COLD VALLEYS OF THE
GILA REGION.
SOME CHANGES ARE IN STORE COME SUNDAY. A TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
CANADIAN BORDER AND A SECOND SYSTEM DROPPING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES WILL PHASE TOGETHER AND DIG A FAIRLY DEEP TROUGH OVER THE
EAST. THE BORDERLAND WILL GET A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MOVING IN
SATURDAY NIGHT. BOTH THE EC AND GFS AGREE WITH THIS TIMING, BUT
DIFFER A LITTLE ON STRENGTH. GFS IS COLDER THAN THE EC AND THE
OPERATIONAL GFS IS COLDER THAN IT'S ENSEMBLE MEAN. EITHER WAY,
THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN OF 5-10 DEGREES OUT
WEST TO 15-20 DEGREES IN THE EAST. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT, ESPECIALLY ON WESTERN SLOPES AND OUT ON THE
LORDSBURG PLAYA. THE WINDS WILL START TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT SUNDAY
AND ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO LIKELY GET TO THE COLDEST OF THE
SEASON FOR MONDAY MORNING AS DEW POINTS FALL INTO THE TEENS TO
LOWER 20S. NBM TEMPS HERE DID SEEM SIGNIFICANTLY TOO WARM AND DID
TREND DOWNWARD ABOUT 5 DEGREES DUE TO FIRST FREEZES POSSIBLY
OCCURRING FOR SOME AREAS. TEMPS SLOWLY TREND UPWARD FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1000 AM MST TUE NOV 4 2025
P6SM SKC-SCT250 THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WINDS GENERALLY OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST AOB 12KTS. KLRU AND KDMN MAY SEE SOME GUSTS
TOWARDS 20KTS MID TO LATE AFTERNOON BUT WILL DIE OFF QUICKLY AFTER
SUNSET.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1000 AM MST TUE NOV 4 2025
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
NEAR RECORDS. VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE WILL ALLOW MIN RH'S TO FALL
INTO THE TEENS AREAWIDE EACH AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL NOT BE A BIG
CONCERN THROUGH SATURDAY WITH 10-15 MPH BEING THE STRONGEST
EXPECTED. A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES IN SAT NIGHT AND WILL DROP
HIGHS AND BRING GUSTY EAST WINDS TO THE AREA. VENT RATES WILL
MAINLY BE FAIR TO GOOD THIS WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 53 82 52 83 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 53 79 52 80 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 46 80 45 80 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 45 78 44 78 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 45 59 44 58 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 45 77 44 79 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 49 73 48 72 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 43 80 42 81 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 42 78 41 78 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 51 80 50 80 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 41 83 40 83 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 52 84 51 84 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 50 74 49 74 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 48 83 47 83 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 47 80 46 79 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 53 80 52 81 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 41 78 40 79 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 43 81 42 83 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 47 82 46 83 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 45 76 44 78 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 43 73 42 71 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 40 71 39 69 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 38 68 37 66 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 37 73 36 76 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 46 76 45 80 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 41 78 40 79 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 26 73 25 73 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 43 75 42 76 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 33 77 32 79 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 29 75 28 74 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 46 76 45 76 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 47 79 46 80 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 45 79 44 80 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 46 81 45 82 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 49 75 48 74 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...26-GRZYWACZ
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