454
FXUS64 KEPZ 042321
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
421 PM MST TUE NOV 4 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 418 PM MST TUE NOV 4 2025
- NEAR RECORD WARMTH THIS WEEK WITH LOWLAND HIGHS IN THE LOWER
EIGHTIES. DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS.
- COLD FRONT ARRIVES NEXT WEEKEND, BRINGING COOLER AND MORE
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1000 AM MST TUE NOV 4 2025
A VERY BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE BORDERLAND THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH A ZONAL FLOW CONTINUING. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN WARM
WITH WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WHICH COULD APPROACH SOME RECORDS AS
HIGHS GET INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S OVER THE LOWLANDS.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL OFF QUICKLY MOST NIGHTS WITH DRY AIR IN
PLACE AND LOWS ARE ABLE TO FALL OFF INTO THE 30S AND 40S AT NIGHT.
NBM HIGHS SEEM FAIRLY REASONABLE, MAYBE A DEGREE OR 2 COOL WITH
THE WEST WINDS. LOWS FOR MANY AREAS DO CONTINUE TO LOOK ABOUT 3-5
DEGREES TOO WARM AND EVEN MORE IN THE TYPICAL COLD VALLEYS OF THE
GILA REGION.
SOME CHANGES ARE IN STORE COME SUNDAY. A TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
CANADIAN BORDER AND A SECOND SYSTEM DROPPING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES WILL PHASE TOGETHER AND DIG A FAIRLY DEEP TROUGH OVER THE
EAST. THE BORDERLAND WILL GET A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MOVING IN
SATURDAY NIGHT. BOTH THE EC AND GFS AGREE WITH THIS TIMING, BUT
DIFFER A LITTLE ON STRENGTH. GFS IS COLDER THAN THE EC AND THE
OPERATIONAL GFS IS COLDER THAN IT'S ENSEMBLE MEAN. EITHER WAY,
THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN OF 5-10 DEGREES OUT
WEST TO 15-20 DEGREES IN THE EAST. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT, ESPECIALLY ON WESTERN SLOPES AND OUT ON THE
LORDSBURG PLAYA. THE WINDS WILL START TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT SUNDAY
AND ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO LIKELY GET TO THE COLDEST OF THE
SEASON FOR MONDAY MORNING AS DEW POINTS FALL INTO THE TEENS TO
LOWER 20S. NBM TEMPS HERE DID SEEM SIGNIFICANTLY TOO WARM AND DID
TREND DOWNWARD ABOUT 5 DEGREES DUE TO FIRST FREEZES POSSIBLY
OCCURRING FOR SOME AREAS. TEMPS SLOWLY TREND UPWARD FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 418 PM MST TUE NOV 4 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS AOB 8KTS
EXPECTED MAINLY FROM W WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO START THE PERIOD.
FEW-SCT250 LINGER THIS EVENING, CLEARING OVERNIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1000 AM MST TUE NOV 4 2025
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
NEAR RECORDS. VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE WILL ALLOW MIN RH'S TO FALL
INTO THE TEENS AREAWIDE EACH AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL NOT BE A BIG
CONCERN THROUGH SATURDAY WITH 10-15 MPH BEING THE STRONGEST
EXPECTED. A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES IN SAT NIGHT AND WILL DROP
HIGHS AND BRING GUSTY EAST WINDS TO THE AREA. VENT RATES WILL
MAINLY BE FAIR TO GOOD THIS WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 82 52 83 53 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 79 52 80 54 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 80 45 80 46 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 78 44 78 45 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 59 44 58 42 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 77 44 79 45 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 73 48 72 49 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 80 42 81 43 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 78 41 78 42 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 80 50 80 51 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 83 40 83 41 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 84 51 84 52 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 74 49 74 50 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 83 47 83 48 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 80 46 79 47 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 80 52 81 53 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 78 40 79 40 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 81 42 83 43 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 82 46 83 47 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 76 44 78 45 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 73 42 71 45 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 71 39 69 40 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 68 37 66 38 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 73 36 76 37 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 76 45 80 46 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 78 40 79 41 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 73 25 73 26 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 75 42 76 43 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 77 32 79 33 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 75 28 74 29 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 76 45 76 46 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 79 46 80 47 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 79 44 80 45 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 81 45 82 46 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 75 48 74 49 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...39-ARONSON
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