711
FXUS64 KEPZ 050509
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1009 PM MST TUE NOV 4 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 938 PM MST TUE NOV 4 2025
- NEAR RECORD WARMTH THIS WEEK WITH LOWLAND HIGHS NEAR 80. DRY
WEATHER AND MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS.
- COLD FRONT ARRIVES NEXT WEEKEND, BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND BREEZY EAST WINDS FOR SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 938 PM MST TUE NOV 4 2025
ANOTHER WARM, DRY FALL DAY IS IN STORE FOR WED UNDER ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE DAY. FOR THU, A WEAK
SHORTWAVE PUSHES THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES, INDUCING A MODEST
LEE CYCLONE IN NE NM AND BREEZY WINDS ACROSS NM DURING THE
AFTERNOON. GENERALLY 10-20 MPH W WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH GUSTS UP
TO 30 MPH, CREATING SOME ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AS MIN
RHS REACH THE LOW TEENS. THE FLOW ALOFT TURNS MORE NW-ERLY INTO
THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO CALI FROM THE WEST. WARM
AND DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH SAT WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS.
WE SEE A JET STREAK DIVE SOUTHEAST FRI-SAT INTO THE PLAINS,
ACCOMPANIED BY A STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE CENTRAL US.
THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH OUR REGION IN ADVANCE OF A
1040-ISH MB HIGH PRESSURE. THE FRONT IS MODELED TO GET HERE SAT
NIGHT FROM THE EAST, BRINGING BREEZY WINDS (ESPECIALLY WEST MTN
SLOPES) ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR THROUGH SUN AM, RESULTING IN WIND
CHILLS INTO THE 30S. TEMPERATURES WILL BE GENERALLY 10-15 DEGREES
COOLER ON SUN.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT EASES SUN NIGHT WITH SUBSIDING WINDS AND
DRY AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT. CLEAR SKIES WILL ALSO AID IN
PROVIDING GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA, SO
MON AM'S LOWS HAVE BEEN BUMPED DOWN FROM NBM MEAN TO THE 25TH
%-ILE. ALL OF THE LOWLANDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE 30S MON AM
WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF EL PASO METRO (MEX GUIDANCE HAS 39
FOR KELP). IT LOOKS LIKE WE'LL NEED TO HOIST MORE FREEZE WATCHES
IF TRENDS HOLD WITH THE STRENGTH OF THIS FRONT. ANOTHER COOL DAY
IS EXPECTED FOR MON BEFORE WE BEGIN TO WARM UP AGAIN INTO MIDWEEK.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING RETURNS TO THE REGION TO END THE PERIOD,
RESULTING IN WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS. NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 938 PM MST TUE NOV 4 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS AOB 8KTS
EXPECTED MAINLY FROM W WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS DURING THE
AFTERNOON TO THE MID-TEENS. MAINLY SKC EXPECTED.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1000 AM MST TUE NOV 4 2025
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
NEAR RECORDS. VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE WILL ALLOW MIN RH'S TO FALL
INTO THE TEENS AREAWIDE EACH AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL NOT BE A BIG
CONCERN THROUGH SATURDAY WITH 10-15 MPH BEING THE STRONGEST
EXPECTED. A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES IN SAT NIGHT AND WILL DROP
HIGHS AND BRING GUSTY EAST WINDS TO THE AREA. VENT RATES WILL
MAINLY BE FAIR TO GOOD THIS WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 82 53 83 52 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 79 47 80 46 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 79 44 79 45 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 79 46 78 46 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 59 38 58 38 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 76 45 78 45 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 73 45 73 43 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 82 42 82 43 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 77 44 77 43 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 80 53 80 52 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 83 41 83 43 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 85 50 86 49 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 74 50 73 48 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 82 47 83 47 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 79 48 79 46 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 80 52 81 51 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 78 38 80 43 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 82 42 83 43 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 82 48 83 48 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 77 45 78 44 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 73 40 71 42 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 71 40 69 40 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 68 39 66 38 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 72 32 75 38 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 78 45 80 46 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 77 40 79 42 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 73 34 73 37 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 76 42 76 42 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 79 38 79 40 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 75 36 74 40 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 76 45 76 45 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 80 46 80 45 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 80 43 80 43 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 80 46 81 45 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 75 49 74 47 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...39-ARONSON
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