640
FXUS64 KEPZ 051353
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
653 AM MST WED NOV 5 2025
..NEW AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 651 AM MST WED NOV 5 2025
- NEAR RECORD WARMTH THIS WEEK WITH LOWLAND HIGHS NEAR 80. DRY
WEATHER AND MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS.
- COLD FRONT ARRIVES NEXT WEEKEND, BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND BREEZY EAST WINDS FOR SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 938 PM MST TUE NOV 4 2025
ANOTHER WARM, DRY FALL DAY IS IN STORE FOR WED UNDER ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE DAY. FOR THU, A WEAK
SHORTWAVE PUSHES THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES, INDUCING A MODEST
LEE CYCLONE IN NE NM AND BREEZY WINDS ACROSS NM DURING THE
AFTERNOON. GENERALLY 10-20 MPH W WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH GUSTS UP
TO 30 MPH, CREATING SOME ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AS MIN
RHS REACH THE LOW TEENS. THE FLOW ALOFT TURNS MORE NW-ERLY INTO
THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO CALI FROM THE WEST. WARM
AND DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH SAT WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS.
WE SEE A JET STREAK DIVE SOUTHEAST FRI-SAT INTO THE PLAINS,
ACCOMPANIED BY A STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE CENTRAL US.
THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH OUR REGION IN ADVANCE OF A
1040-ISH MB HIGH PRESSURE. THE FRONT IS MODELED TO GET HERE SAT
NIGHT FROM THE EAST, BRINGING BREEZY WINDS (ESPECIALLY WEST MTN
SLOPES) ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR THROUGH SUN AM, RESULTING IN WIND
CHILLS INTO THE 30S. TEMPERATURES WILL BE GENERALLY 10-15 DEGREES
COOLER ON SUN.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT EASES SUN NIGHT WITH SUBSIDING WINDS AND
DRY AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT. CLEAR SKIES WILL ALSO AID IN
PROVIDING GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA, SO
MON AM'S LOWS HAVE BEEN BUMPED DOWN FROM NBM MEAN TO THE 25TH
%-ILE. ALL OF THE LOWLANDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE 30S MON AM
WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF EL PASO METRO (MEX GUIDANCE HAS 39
FOR KELP). IT LOOKS LIKE WE'LL NEED TO HOIST MORE FREEZE WATCHES
IF TRENDS HOLD WITH THE STRENGTH OF THIS FRONT. ANOTHER COOL DAY
IS EXPECTED FOR MON BEFORE WE BEGIN TO WARM UP AGAIN INTO MIDWEEK.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING RETURNS TO THE REGION TO END THE PERIOD,
RESULTING IN WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS. NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 651 AM MST WED NOV 5 2025
LIGHT WINDS, TRENDING TOWARDS SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST, AND CLEAR SKIES
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 651 AM MST WED NOV 5 2025
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOUT 8 TO 12 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH LOW HUMIDITY ALLOWING FOR STRONG
COOLING OVERNIGHT. AFTERNOON MIN RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY RUN
10 TO 15 PERCENT BELOW 7500 FEET, AND 15 TO 20 PERCENT AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT, BUT WILL APPROACH
10 TO 15 MPH ON SATURDAY.
A STRONG BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT,
BRINGING GUSTY WINDS TO WEST SLOPE LOCATIONS THROUGH SUNDAY. THE
FRONT WILL ALSO BRING A 10 TO 15 DEGREE DROP IN MAX TEMPERATURES,
WHICH WILL BOOST MINIMUM RH LEVELS BACK ABOVE 15 PERCENT AGAIN.
NO PRECIPITATION IS IN THE FORECAST FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 50 83 54 80 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 55 80 51 76 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 42 79 44 77 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 41 78 45 77 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 44 58 45 58 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 45 78 47 74 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 43 73 42 72 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 42 82 41 79 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 40 77 41 76 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 51 80 51 77 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 35 83 41 79 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 47 86 51 82 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 38 73 46 72 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 46 83 43 79 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 48 79 50 77 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 48 81 51 77 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 35 80 36 77 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 34 83 37 79 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 46 83 48 80 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 46 78 48 74 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 41 71 45 70 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 35 69 43 69 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 35 66 41 67 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 34 75 35 72 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 45 80 48 76 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 36 79 40 75 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 23 73 24 73 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 43 76 41 74 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 33 79 29 78 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 28 74 27 74 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 43 76 43 74 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 47 80 47 78 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 46 80 45 77 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 41 81 42 79 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 47 74 46 72 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...25-HARDIMAN
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