753
FXUS64 KEPZ 051716
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1016 AM MST WED NOV 5 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1014 AM MST WED NOV 5 2025
- NEAR RECORD WARMTH THIS WEEK WITH LOWLAND HIGHS NEAR 80. DRY
WEATHER AND MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS.
- COLD FRONT ARRIVES NEXT WEEKEND, BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND GUSTY EAST WINDS FOR SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1014 AM MST WED NOV 5 2025
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE MODELS FOR THE NEXT WEEK. THE AREA WILL
CONTINUE IN A WARM WESTERLY FLOW THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S FOR MOST OF THE
LOWLANDS. THERE WILL BE A LITTLE BREEZINESS TO GO WITH THE WARMTH
ON THURSDAY AS WELL. DRY AIR IN PLACE WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO DROP QUICKLY INTO THE 30S AND 40S FOR LOWS. NBM
TEMPS HAVE BEEN A TAD TOO LOW ON HIGHS AND TOO WARM ON LOWS AS IS
TYPICAL THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.
CHANGES ARRIVE FOR SUNDAY AS A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT PUSHES IN FROM
THE EAST. STILL LOOKS LIKE ARRIVAL AROUND THE RGV TO BE ABOUT
MIDNIGHT AND PUSHING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA BY MORNING.
GUSTY EAST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED WITH THE NBM WINDS
WAY TOO LOW AND ADJUSTED UP WITH 15-30G40MPH POSSIBLE ON WESTERN
MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND OUT ON THE PLAYA WITH A SOLID 10-20G30
ELSEWHERE. SOME DIFFERENCES STILL IN THE MODELS WITHE AMOUNT OF
COLD AIR MOVING IN. GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE COLDEST AND IS
SUPPORTED FAIRLY WELL BY IT'S ENSEMBLE MEAN WITH THE EC THE
WARMEST WITH IT'S ENSEMBLE MEAN SUPPORTING THE OPERATIONAL. NBM
TEMPS SEEMED TOO WARM, EVEN IF YOU TOOK THE EC SOLUTION, SO DID
LOWER FORECAST HIGHS FOR SUN ABOUT 5 DEGREES WHICH RESULTS IN A
DROP OF ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES OUT WEST TO OVER 20 DEGREES IN THE
EAST FROM SAT.
GOING INTO MONDAY, THE FRONT PUSHES IN SOME EVEN DRIER AIR WITH
DEW POINTS DROPPING INTO THE TEENS AND WINDS GRADUALLY DECREASING.
THIS COULD BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE YEAR FOR MOST AREAS WITH
SOME AREAS THAT HAVEN'T HIT FREEZING YET, POSSIBLY GETTING THERE
BUT IT WILL BE CLOSE AND HEAVILY DEPEND ON HOW QUICK WINDS
DECREASE. AGAIN NBM TEMPS SEEMED QUITE A BIT TOO WARM AND LOWERED
A GOOD 5-7 DEGREES FOR MON MORNING LOWS.
AN UPPER RIDGE PUSHES OVER THE ROCKIES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH
WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO QUICKLY START TO REBOUND AND IT IS LOOKING
LIKE AT LEAST MID TO UPPER 70S RETURN TO THE LOWLANDS BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1014 AM MST WED NOV 5 2025
P6SM SKC-FEW250 THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WINDS GENERALLY WESTERLY
AOB 10KTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1014 AM MST WED NOV 5 2025
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AS WESTERLY
FLOW CONTINUES. MIN RH'S WILL BE IN THE TEENS BUT WINDS, WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THU WHEN 10-20MPH SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED, WILL REMAIN
UNDER 15 MPH. A STRONG BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH IN FOR
SUNDAY AND BRING GUSTY EAST WINDS AND DROP TEMPERATURES ABOUT
10-20 DEGREES. NO PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR WITH THIS FRONT AND
RH'S WILL REMAIN AROUND 20% FOR THE LOWLANDS AND 20S-30S IN THE
MOUNTAINS. WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 49 84 51 81 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 54 81 54 77 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 43 81 45 78 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 43 80 45 78 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 42 60 41 59 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 44 80 45 76 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 49 73 49 71 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 40 82 42 80 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 39 79 41 77 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 48 82 50 79 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 38 84 40 80 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 43 85 47 82 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 41 76 43 73 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 44 85 46 81 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 46 81 48 78 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 49 82 51 79 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 35 81 37 78 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 39 83 41 80 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 43 84 45 81 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 44 80 46 76 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 37 72 39 71 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 37 70 37 70 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 33 68 33 67 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 34 77 36 72 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 43 82 43 77 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 37 81 39 76 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 24 73 25 74 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 40 76 42 73 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 33 78 32 77 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 27 74 28 73 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 41 76 43 75 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 39 80 41 79 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 42 80 44 78 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 42 81 44 80 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 48 75 47 74 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...26-GRZYWACZ
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