439
FXUS64 KEPZ 052328
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
428 PM MST WED NOV 5 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 430 PM MST WED NOV 5 2025
- NEAR RECORD WARMTH THIS WEEK WITH LOWLAND HIGHS NEAR EIGHTY
DEGREES. DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS.
- COLD FRONT ARRIVES ON SUNDAY, BRINGING MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY EAST WINDS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1000 AM MST WED NOV 5 2025
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE MODELS FOR THE NEXT WEEK. THE AREA WILL
CONTINUE IN A WARM WESTERLY FLOW THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S FOR MOST OF THE
LOWLANDS. THERE WILL BE A LITTLE BREEZINESS TO GO WITH THE WARMTH
ON THURSDAY AS WELL. DRY AIR IN PLACE WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO DROP QUICKLY INTO THE 30S AND 40S FOR LOWS. NBM
TEMPS HAVE BEEN A TAD TOO LOW ON HIGHS AND TOO WARM ON LOWS AS IS
TYPICAL THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.
CHANGES ARRIVE FOR SUNDAY AS A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT PUSHES IN
FROM THE EAST. STILL LOOKS LIKE ARRIVAL AROUND THE RGV TO BE ABOUT
MIDNIGHT AND PUSHING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA BY
MORNING. GUSTY EAST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED WITH THE
NBM WINDS WAY TOO LOW AND ADJUSTED UP WITH 15-30G40 MPH POSSIBLE
ON WESTERN MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND OUT ON THE PLAYA WITH A SOLID
10-20G30 ELSEWHERE. SOME DIFFERENCES STILL IN THE MODELS WITHE
AMOUNT OF COLD AIR MOVING IN. GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE COLDEST AND
IS SUPPORTED FAIRLY WELL BY IT'S ENSEMBLE MEAN WITH THE EC THE
WARMEST WITH IT'S ENSEMBLE MEAN SUPPORTING THE OPERATIONAL. NBM
TEMPS SEEMED TOO WARM, EVEN IF YOU TOOK THE EC SOLUTION, SO DID
LOWER FORECAST HIGHS FOR SUN ABOUT 5 DEGREES WHICH RESULTS IN A
DROP OF ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES OUT WEST TO OVER 20 DEGREES IN THE
EAST FROM SAT.
GOING INTO MONDAY, THE FRONT PUSHES IN SOME EVEN DRIER AIR WITH
DEW POINTS DROPPING INTO THE TEENS AND WINDS GRADUALLY DECREASING.
THIS COULD BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE YEAR FOR MOST AREAS WITH
SOME AREAS THAT HAVEN'T HIT FREEZING YET, POSSIBLY GETTING THERE
BUT IT WILL BE CLOSE AND HEAVILY DEPEND ON HOW QUICK WINDS
DECREASE. AGAIN NBM TEMPS SEEMED QUITE A BIT TOO WARM AND LOWERED
A GOOD 5-7 DEGREES FOR MON MORNING LOWS.
AN UPPER RIDGE PUSHES OVER THE ROCKIES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH
WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO QUICKLY START TO REBOUND AND IT IS LOOKING
LIKE AT LEAST MID TO UPPER 70S RETURN TO THE LOWLANDS BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 430 PM MST WED NOV 5 2025
VMC THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SKIES
SKC-FEW250. SURFACE WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT, THEN
220-250 AT 06-12 KNOTS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1000 AM MST WED NOV 5 2025
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AS
WESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES. MIN RH'S WILL BE IN THE TEENS BUT WINDS,
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THU WHEN 10-20MPH SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED, WILL
REMAIN UNDER 15 MPH. A STRONG BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH IN
FOR SUNDAY AND BRING GUSTY EAST WINDS AND DROP TEMPERATURES ABOUT
10-20 DEGREES. NO PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR WITH THIS FRONT AND
RH'S WILL REMAIN AROUND 20% FOR THE LOWLANDS AND 20S-30S IN THE
MOUNTAINS. WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 52 82 51 81 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 47 80 46 77 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 44 79 45 78 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 45 78 45 78 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 38 57 38 59 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 45 78 45 76 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 46 72 43 71 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 43 82 42 80 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 45 77 41 77 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 53 80 50 79 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 41 83 40 80 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 51 86 47 82 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 50 74 43 73 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 47 83 46 81 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 46 80 46 78 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 52 80 51 79 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 42 80 37 78 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 42 83 41 80 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 48 83 45 81 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 44 78 44 76 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 40 72 39 71 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 40 69 37 70 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 38 66 33 67 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 37 75 36 72 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 46 80 43 77 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 40 79 39 76 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 38 72 25 74 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 43 75 42 73 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 42 79 32 77 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 41 74 28 73 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 46 76 43 75 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 47 80 41 79 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 45 80 43 78 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 47 82 44 80 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 51 75 47 74 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...30-DENNHARDT
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page