669
FXUS64 KEPZ 060453
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
953 PM MST WED NOV 5 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1000 PM MST WED NOV 5 2025
- NEAR RECORD WARMTH THIS WEEK WITH LOWLAND HIGHS NEAR EIGHTY
DEGREES. DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS.
- COLD FRONT ARRIVES ON SUNDAY, BRINGING MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY EAST WINDS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1000 PM MST WED NOV 5 2025
WARM AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN
SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH AND JET FLOW CONFINED WELL TO
OUR NORTH. TEMPERATURES RUNNING 8 TO 12 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
EARLY NOVEMBER, WHICH MEANS LOWLAND HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. THIS
IS CLOSE TO DAILY RECORDS, AND COULD TIE OR BREAK RECORDS FOR A
FEW SITES THURSDAY AFTERNOON. STEADY WEST FLOW EACH DAY, GENERALLY
5 TO 10 MPH.
UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES HIGHER AMPLITUDE SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK AS
THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. INTENSIFIES AND A STRONG MID-
LATITUDE WAVE TRACKS ACROSS THE MIDWEST STATES. 1040 MB SURFACE
HIGH OUT OF CANADA WILL SPILL COLD AIR DOWN THE PLAINS THIS
WEEKEND, REACHING OUR REGION SUNDAY MORNING.
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT CURRENTLY TIMED FOR THE PRE-DAWN HOURS SUNDAY
MORNING. FIRST CONCERN WILL BE STRONG EAST WINDS LEADING TO
DOWNSLOPE GUSTS ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF AREA MOUNTAINS.
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR OVERNIGHT GUSTS TO 30-40 MPH ALONG THE
HUECOS, FRANKLINS, AND ORGANS. GUSTY WINDS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE
DAY ON SUNDAY ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO. MONITORING FOR
POSSIBLE WIND HEADLINES SUNDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER ON SUNDAY AS COOL AIR SPILLS IN
FROM THE EAST. 24-HOUR CHANGE OF 15 TO 20 DEGREES LOOKS MOST
LIKELY, WHICH MEANS LOWLAND HIGHS IN THE LOWER-TO-MID 60S. THIS IS
ONLY SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL, GIVEN OUR RECENT WARM SPELL. SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL BE CHILLY, WITH A FEW SITES REACHING THE
FREEZING MARK.
EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKS LIKE A QUICK TEMPERATURES REBOUND AS THE
WESTERN RIDGE KEEPS US DRY AND PUSHES TEMPERATURES BACK TO ABOVE
NORMAL. NO RAIN CHANCES IN SIGHT IN LONG-TERM WEATHER MODELS. WE
WILL LIKELY STAY DRY AREA-WIDE THROUGH MID-NOVEMBER.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1000 PM MST WED NOV 5 2025
VMC THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SKIES
SKC-FEW250. SURFACE WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT, THEN
220-250 AT 06-12 KNOTS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1000 AM MST WED NOV 5 2025
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AS
WESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES. MIN RH'S WILL BE IN THE TEENS BUT WINDS,
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THU WHEN 10-20MPH SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED, WILL
REMAIN UNDER 15 MPH. A STRONG BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH IN
FOR SUNDAY AND BRING GUSTY EAST WINDS AND DROP TEMPERATURES ABOUT
10-20 DEGREES. NO PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR WITH THIS FRONT AND
RH'S WILL REMAIN AROUND 20% FOR THE LOWLANDS AND 20S-30S IN THE
MOUNTAINS. WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 83 52 80 52 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 80 47 76 44 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 80 45 78 44 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 79 46 77 45 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 58 38 58 38 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 79 47 75 46 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 73 44 72 44 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 83 43 80 43 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 78 44 76 44 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 80 52 78 52 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 83 42 80 42 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 86 50 83 49 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 74 49 72 48 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 84 47 80 47 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 79 46 78 46 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 81 52 78 50 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 80 43 77 42 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 84 44 80 42 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 84 49 81 48 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 78 45 75 44 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 72 43 70 42 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 69 40 69 40 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 66 39 66 39 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 75 38 71 38 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 81 47 77 47 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 80 42 75 41 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 73 37 73 38 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 76 42 75 42 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 79 42 78 41 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 74 41 74 41 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 76 45 74 46 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 81 46 78 44 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 81 44 78 42 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 82 45 80 45 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 75 48 72 47 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...30-DENNHARDT
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