110
FXUS64 KEPZ 191919
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1219 PM MST WED NOV 19 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1215 PM MST WED NOV 19 2025
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON, FOCUSING
ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO. SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO
SEVERE. LOCALIZED FLOODING POSSIBLE WITH RAIN TOTALS ONE TO TWO
INCHES.
- WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. SNOW
LEVELS ABOVE 9,000 FEET. NEW RAIN AMOUNTS 0.50-0.75 INCHES
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.
- NEXT ROUND OF RAIN CHANCES TIMED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 943 PM MST TUE NOV 18 2025
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING THE BORDERLAND RAIN SHOWERS
AND HIGH ELEVATION MOUNTAIN SNOW WED/THU IS CURRENTLY SITTING OVER
SOCAL AND WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD. MODELS ARE SUGGESTING PRETTY GOOD
AREAWIDE COVERAGE FOR RAIN SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY. INSTABILITY VALUES
ARE LACKLUSTER WITH VALUES GENERALLY BELOW 500 J/KG, BUT PLENTY OF
SHEAR WILL BE AROUND (0-6KM SHEAR OF 50-75KT). OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND
INTO THE MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY WE CAN EXPECT RAIN SHOWERS BUT
TURNS MORE CONVECTIVE AS WE HEAD INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE
STRONGEST STORMS SHOULD BE ISOLATED IN NATURE BUT COULD SEE SOME LOW
TOPPED SUPERCELLS BRINGING THE THREAT OF GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND
HAIL. MODERATE RAINFALL POSSIBLE AS WELL BUT THANKFULLY THE ADDED
SHEAR WILL ALLOW FOR THESE STORMS TO MOVE OFF AN AREA QUICKLY BEFORE
CAUSING ANY FLOODING ISSUES. HOWEVER, IF STORMS BEGIN BACK BUILDING
OVER AN AREA - THAT COULD BECOME AN ISSUE.
SNOW LEVELS WILL BE QUITE HIGH (ABOVE 9500') ON
WEDNESDAY BUT LOOKS LIKE SNOW LEVELS START TO CRASH LATE
WEDNESDAY/EARLY THURSDAY WHICH WOULD BRING SOME HIGH ELEVATION SNOW.
SNOW LEVELS START AT AROUND 9000' WEDNESDAY EVENING BUT DROP TO
AROUND 8000' IN THE GILA REGION. BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT SNOW LEVELS
GET TO AROUND 7000' BUT MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED OUT OF
THE AREA. CURRENT SNOW TOTALS LOOK LIGHT WITH TOTALS ANYWHERE FROM
JUST A COATING TO AN INCH OR TWO ON THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE
BLACK RANGE. THE SACRAMENTO MTNS WILL SEE LIGHT TOTALS AS WELL (A
COATING TO AN INCH OR SO POSSIBLE). IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW, RAIN
CHANCES LOOK TO PERSIST LATE WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA. SIMILAR ENVIRONMENT EXPECTED THURSDAY TO WHAT WE'LL SEE
WEDNESDAY WHERE THERE'S PLENTY OF SHEAR TO WORK WITH BUT NOT MUCH
INSTABILITY, AND INSTABILITY VALUES LOOK JUST A BIT LESS THAN
WEDNESDAY BUT SIMILAR HAZARDS CAN BE EXPECTED.
THE SYSTEM LOOKS TO MOVE OUT LATE THURSDAY WHICH MAY KEEP SOME
LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS BEHIND THE SYSTEM BUT FRIDAY LOOKS MUCH
QUIETER WITH LIGHT WINDS, DRY CONDITIONS, AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. OUR NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES LATE SATURDAY BRINGING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES BY LATE EVENING SATURDAY. THIS SECOND SYSTEM
LOOKS TO TAKE A SIMILAR TRAJECTORY IN THE WAY IT MAKES IT'S WAY
ONSHORE OVER SOCAL/NORTHERN BAJA AND PROGRESSES EASTWARD OVER
CENTRAL NM. ANOTHER ROUND OF LOWLAND RAIN SHOWERS AND LIGHT MOUNTAIN
SNOWFALL. SNOW TOTALS LOOK EVEN LESS IMPRESSIVE RIGHT NOW COMPARED
TO THE FIRST SYSTEM. LOOKING LIKE A COATING TO AN INCH OF SNOW IS
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY FOR THE AREA
MOUNTAINS. THE SYSTEM LOOKS TO EXIT LATE MONDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY
BRINGING ANOTHER BREAK THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM MST WED NOV 19 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL DESPITE INCREASING SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS
THE AREA. EXPECT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS, WITH SOME RISK OF SMALL
HAIL, TO INCREASE OVER SW NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON. THE HIGHER
RISK WILL BE JUST WEST OF DMN/TCS, BUT THERE'S A LOW PROBABILITY
OF A STRAY THUNDERSTORM AFFECTING THOSE TERMINALS.
OTHERWISE, PERIODS OF SHOWERS WILL BECOME STEADIER OVERNIGHT.
CAN'T RULE OUT BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS IN PLACES TOWARDS DAWN, BUT
CEILINGS WILL MOST LIKELY STAY IN THE 4-5K FT RANGE.
EXPECT BREEZY WEST WINDS, WITH A FEW GUSTS 30 TO 35 KNOTS
THURSDAY, MAINLY AT DMN/LRU/ELP. WE MIGHT PUSH INTO AWW RANGE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AT ELP.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 430 AM MST WED NOV 19 2025
LOW FIRE DANGER TODAY WITH WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY FOR GNF WHERE ISOLATED
FLOODING MAY OCCUR. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. OVERNIGHT RAINS
EXPECTED INTO THURSDAY MORNING FOR BOTH GNF/LNF AND RIO GRANDE
VALLEY.
CONDITIONS BECOMING DRY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WEST WINDS 15 TO 20
MPH LEADING TO GOOD VENTILATION. COOLER TEMPERATURES INTO THE
WEEKEND. ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN SHOWERS AND HIGH ELEVATION (ABOVE
8000 FEET) SNOW EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 53 63 41 63 / 80 70 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 50 64 36 61 / 60 70 0 0
LAS CRUCES 48 58 32 58 / 80 70 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 47 56 32 58 / 80 80 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 35 37 24 42 / 80 90 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 46 55 35 56 / 90 70 0 0
SILVER CITY 41 45 30 52 / 90 60 0 0
DEMING 48 57 30 60 / 80 40 0 0
LORDSBURG 47 53 32 57 / 80 30 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 53 61 42 60 / 70 70 0 0
DELL CITY 50 65 33 64 / 50 60 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 54 68 38 67 / 60 80 0 0
LOMA LINDA 48 57 37 55 / 60 80 0 0
FABENS 53 65 37 64 / 70 70 0 0
SANTA TERESA 51 59 38 59 / 70 70 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 51 59 37 60 / 80 70 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 47 57 27 58 / 80 70 0 0
HATCH 49 58 29 61 / 80 70 0 0
COLUMBUS 50 59 36 62 / 80 40 0 0
OROGRANDE 49 59 35 57 / 80 70 0 0
MAYHILL 42 47 28 56 / 70 80 0 0
MESCALERO 40 44 27 53 / 80 80 0 0
TIMBERON 41 46 26 49 / 70 80 0 0
WINSTON 40 47 24 51 / 90 60 0 0
HILLSBORO 44 51 33 57 / 90 60 0 0
SPACEPORT 46 55 28 57 / 80 70 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 39 42 18 54 / 90 70 10 0
HURLEY 42 48 29 55 / 90 60 0 0
CLIFF 45 48 25 58 / 90 60 0 0
MULE CREEK 41 46 26 54 / 80 40 0 0
FAYWOOD 43 48 33 54 / 90 50 0 0
ANIMAS 46 54 34 60 / 80 60 0 0
HACHITA 46 55 33 59 / 80 40 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 46 54 31 60 / 80 40 0 0
CLOVERDALE 43 47 35 55 / 90 70 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...25-HARDIMAN
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