166
FXUS64 KEPZ 192355
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
455 PM MST WED NOV 19 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 445 PM MST WED NOV 19 2025
- A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY OVER
SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO, WHERE SOME STRONGER STORMS MAY
CONTAIN HAIL AND STRONG WINDS.
- SHOWERS WILL MERGE INTO STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN THAT WILL
SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. LIGHT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS MAY REACH EMORY PASS IN THE GILA REGION BY
DAWN. SNOW SHOWERS MAY DROP DOWN TO AROUND 8000 FEET THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. SOME ICE PELLETS MAY MIX IN WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS IN
SOME LOWLAND AREAS THURSDAY AS WELL.
- IT WILL BE BREEZY AND BLUSTERY ON THURSDAY, WITH GUSTS OVER 40
MPH ALONG EAST-FACING MOUNTAIN SLOPES.
- ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW LOOKS MORE LIKELY
HEADING IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY, WITH SOME ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE AT HIGH ELEVATIONS. QUIETER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1222 PM MST WED NOV 19 2025
THE UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA IS SLOWLY MOVING EAST
TOWARDS THE COLORADO RIVER. A PLUME OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SUBTROPICAL JET HAS LAGGED, KEEPING SHOWERS IN PLACE OVER
PARTS OF EAST EL PASO, THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS, OTERO MESA, AND
MUCH OF HUDSPETH COUNTY. MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN HANDLING THIS WELL
AT ALL, BUT A WEAKENING TREND SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT HOUR
OR TWO.
MEANWHILE, OUR FOCUS SHIFTS TO THE WEST, WHERE INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW AND ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW WILL
LEAD TO INCREASING CONVECTIVE SHOWER ACTIVITY, AND LIKELY A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
A STRONG VORT MAX AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH, JUST NW OF THE "BAJA
SPUR". THIS WILL PIVOT NORTHEAST AND PHASE WITH THE MAIN UPPER LOW
AS THE PARENT TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED OVERNIGHT. THIS
WILL RESULT IN CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD MERGING INTO A STEADIER BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
PRECIPITATION LATER TONIGHT, WHICH WILL THEN SHIFT ENE THROUGH
MORNING. THE BACKSIDE OF THE STEADIER PRECIP LOOKS TO PUSH EAST OF
EL PASO AFTER SUNRISE, WITH ADDITIONAL BANDS OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM CONTINUING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON THURSDAY.
INSTABILITY IS LIMITED, BUT SHEAR IS STRONG. STILL CAN'T RULE OUT
THE ODD SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON IN SW NEW MEXICO,
OTHERWISE MOST OF THE STRONGER STORMS WILL HAVE SMALL HAIL AND
SOME WIND GUSTS AROUND 45-50 MPH. TRAINING CELLS COULD LEAD TO
LOCALIZED FLOODING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. LATER TONIGHT, PRECIP
BECOMES MORE STRATIFORM, WITH LOWER RAINFALL RATES, WHICH WILL
MITIGATE THE FLOODING RISK. THE GILA AND MIMBRES RIVERS SHOULD SEE
SOME DECENT RISES. BUT THE GILA (AT GILA, NM) IS CURRENTLY
RUNNING AT JUST 75 CFS, THOUGH THIS IS NEAR MEDIAN VALUES. WE
SHOULD START TO BUILD A LITTLE SNOWPACK IN THE HEADWATERS OF THE
WEST FORK (MOGOLLON MOUNTAINS), WHICH IS WELL NEEDED. TYPICALLY
WINTER IS FLOOD SEASON ON THE GILA, AND TYPICALLY FLOODING
REQUIRES A WARMER RAIN EVENT ON A PRE-EXISTING SNOWPACK.
UPSTREAM OBS CURRENTLY SHOW SNOW LEVELS AROUND 9500-10,000 FEET IN
EASTERN ARIZONA (BASED ON OBS ON MOUNT GRAHAM). IN THE GILA, OBS
AT MCKNIGHT CABIN SHOW 37 DEGREES AT 9200 FEET. AN EBID WEATHER
STATION NEAR EMORY PASS (8300 FEET) IS 41 DEGREES. IN THE
SACRAMENTOS, WE MAY HAVE SPIED SOME SNOW MIXING IN ON A FOREST
SERVICE CAMERA AT CATHEY PEAK A COUPLE HOURS AGO, PERHAPS WE WERE
STILL WET-BULBING, BUT NOW IT'S 37 AT SUNSPOT (9250 FEET), WITH A
DEWPOINT OF 35, AND 39 AT MESONET STATIONS NEAR HIGH NOGAL (8800
FEET). ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW MIXING IN LOOKS UNLIKELY AS SOUTHERLY
FLOW KEEPS SNOW LEVELS STEADY INTO THE EVENING.
SNOW LEVELS OVER THE GILA WILL FALL CLOSER TO 8500 FEET IN THE
PREDAWN HOURS, PERHAPS BRINGING SOME SLUSHY LIGHT ACCUMULATION TO
EMORY PASS (NM-152), WITH AN INCH OR TWO POSSIBLE IN UNPOPULATED
ROADLESS AREAS HIGHER UP. SNOW LEVELS IN THE SACRAMENTOS WILL
REMAIN ABOVE 10,000 FEET INTO THE MORNING HOURS, THEN FALL TO
AROUND 9000 FEET BY MIDDAY.
SOME OF THE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS TOMORROW (THU) COULD CONTAIN SOME
GRAUPEL AND SNOW OVER THE GILA REGION AS SNOW LEVELS CONTINUE TO
DROP TO AROUND 7000 FEET BEFORE SUNSET, BUT DEWPOINTS IN THE
MID-30S SUGGEST ANYTHING AT LOWER ELEVATIONS WOULD BE VERY BRIEF
AND ONLY IN HEAVIER CONVECTIVE SHOWERS. IN THE SACRAMENTOS, A
DUSTING TO AN INCH COULD OCCUR AT CLOUDCROFT BY NIGHT FALL, AND UP
TO AN INCH OR TWO ABOVE 9000 FEET. AGAIN, EXPECT GRAUPEL AND SNOW
IN CONVECTIVE BURSTS AT TIMES, WHICH COULD REDUCE VISIBILITY.
IT'LL BE A BLUSTERY AND GUSTY DAY ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, WITH TEMPS STUCK IN THE UPPER-50S FOR THE LOWLANDS. A
FEW GUSTS IN THE 40-45 MPH RANGE WILL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN
FAVORED EAST-FACING SLOPE LOCATIONS AND EXPOSED RIDGELINES.
CONTENDERS FOR STRONGER GUSTS INCLUDE NE EL PASO, WSMR MAIN POST
AND UP-RANGE AREAS EAST OF THE SAN ANDRES MOUNTAINS, AND EXPOSED
RIDGES IN THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS. (AND SAN AUGUSTIN PASS,
OBVIOUSLY!)
ANOTHER SYSTEM IS ON TRACK FOR THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER CLOSED LOW
DROPS DOWN INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ON FRIDAY, MAINTAINING THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH POSITION ALONG THE WEST COAST. THE LOW LOOKS TO
GET CUTOFF AND TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA BY
SATURDAY EVENING. AFTER THAT, THE SPEED AND TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW
IS A LITTLE MORE QUESTIONABLE. THE 12Z GFS CAME IN A LITTLE FASTER
AND WITH THE LOW PASSING JUST NORTH OF LRU SUNDAY AFTERNOON. I'D
TEND TO FAVOR THE SLOWER ECMWF, BUT WITH A SIMILAR TRACK, CLOSER
TO THE ENSEMBLE MEAN, THOUGH SEVERAL MEMBERS STILL TAKE THE UPPER
LOW SOUTH OF ELP, WHICH WOULD BE COOLER AND WETTER. EVEN SO,
THERE'S A GOOD CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS THE CWA
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, WITH SNOW LEVELS RUNNING ABOUT 1000
FEET LOWER THAN WITH THIS CURRENT SYSTEM. STILL TOO EARLY FOR A
DETERMINISTIC SNOWFALL FORECAST, BUT FEW INCHES ACCUMULATION SAT
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY ABOVE 8000 FEET ISN'T TOTALLY UNLIKELY.
MEDIUM RANGE NBM MEMBERS ARE ALL FAR TOO COARSE IN RESOLUTION TO
REALLY TRUST SNOWFALL STATISTICS IN OUR COMPLEX TERRAIN. THE
CLOSER WE GET, SOME OF THE HIGHER-RES MODELS WHICH TEND TO GO
BONKERS WITH OROGRAPHIC QPF START POLLUTING THE BLEND IN OTHER
WAYS. IT'S BETTER TO LOOK AT LIQUID QPF AND CONSIDER POSSIBLE SNOW
LEVELS AND RATIOS INSTEAD, EVEN THOUGH THAT DOESN'T LEND ITSELF
TO PRETTY PICTURES GENERATED IN DESI. NBM ENSEMBLE MEAN QPF (24
HOURS ENDING SUN NIGHT) OVER THE GILA AND SACS IS AROUND 0.15",
90TH PERCENTILE IS AROUND 0.40". USING THE MOST NON-COMMITAL
PHRASES I CAN MUSTER... A REALLY ROUGH BALLPARK ESTIMATE SUGGESTS
1-3 INCHES CAN'T BE RULED OUT ABOVE 7500 FEET GIVEN THE MOST
LIKELY LOW TRACK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 445 PM MST WED NOV 19 2025
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING THIS EVENING MOSTLY ALONG
AND WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE. THUNDERSTORMS ARE STARTING TO FIRE UP
NEAR KDMN AND EVEN TOWARDS KTCS, BUT WITH THE LOSS OF SUNLIGHT IN
THE NEXT HOUR OR SO, STORMS SHOULD TRANSITION TOWARDS RAIN SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDER HERE AND THERE. MODELS
ARE SUGGESTING A PRETTY GOOD SWATH OF RAIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
AREA LATER TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS SYSTEM
WILL LIFT OUT OF THE AREA TOMORROW. RAIN SHOWERS LOOK TO STILL BE
GOING ON BY SUNRISE BUT CLEARING CONDITIONS WILL WORK WEST TO EAST
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SOME LINGERING HIT AND MISS LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS POSSIBLE TOMORROW AFTERNOON BEFORE CLEARING OUT BY THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS. IN ADDITION, WINDS WILL BE QUITE BREEZY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON OUT OF THE WEST SOUTHWEST AT 15-25G30-35KT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1222 PM MST WED NOV 19 2025
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS CONTINUE TO BE MINIMAL AS A PAIR OF SYSTEMS
WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES, HIGHER HUMIDITY, AND A FAIR AMOUNT
OF PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION TODAY AND THURSDAY, AND AGAIN
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS THURSDAY
WILL BE MITIGATED BY HIGH HUMIDITY.
LOTS OF BURN PILE SPOT REQUESTS LATELY. MOST FAVORABLE VENT
RATES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS IN SW NEW
MEXICO, AND THE MIDDLE ELEVATIONS ELSEWHERE, WITH LESS FAVORABLE
RATES ABOVE 7500 FEET. VENT RATES WILL BE MUCH IMPROVED TOMORROW
WITH INCREASING WEST WINDS, EXCEPT IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
(ESPECIALLY ABOVE 8000 FEET) WHERE MIXING HEIGHTS WILL BE
LIMITED, CLOSER TO THE INVERSION LAYER, THE BASE OF WHICH WHICH
LOOKS TO HANG OUT RIGHT AROUND 10,000 FEET MOST OF THE DAY. VENT
RATES LOOK THE WORST ON FRIDAY, WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT SATURDAY.
THINGS COULD GET A BIT DODGY AGAIN WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH SUNDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 53 63 41 63 / 80 70 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 50 64 36 61 / 60 70 0 0
LAS CRUCES 48 58 32 58 / 80 70 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 47 56 32 58 / 80 80 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 35 37 24 42 / 80 90 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 46 55 35 56 / 90 70 0 0
SILVER CITY 41 45 30 52 / 90 60 0 0
DEMING 48 57 30 60 / 80 40 0 0
LORDSBURG 47 53 32 57 / 80 30 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 53 61 42 60 / 70 70 0 0
DELL CITY 50 65 33 64 / 50 60 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 54 68 38 67 / 60 80 0 0
LOMA LINDA 48 57 37 55 / 60 80 0 0
FABENS 53 65 37 64 / 70 70 0 0
SANTA TERESA 51 59 38 59 / 70 70 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 51 59 37 60 / 80 70 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 47 57 27 58 / 80 70 0 0
HATCH 49 58 29 61 / 80 70 0 0
COLUMBUS 50 59 36 62 / 80 40 0 0
OROGRANDE 49 59 35 57 / 80 70 0 0
MAYHILL 42 47 28 56 / 70 80 0 0
MESCALERO 40 44 27 53 / 80 80 0 0
TIMBERON 41 46 26 49 / 70 80 0 0
WINSTON 40 47 24 51 / 90 60 0 0
HILLSBORO 44 51 33 57 / 90 60 0 0
SPACEPORT 46 55 28 57 / 80 70 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 39 42 18 54 / 90 70 10 0
HURLEY 42 48 29 55 / 90 60 0 0
CLIFF 45 48 25 58 / 90 60 0 0
MULE CREEK 41 46 26 54 / 80 40 0 0
FAYWOOD 43 48 33 54 / 90 50 0 0
ANIMAS 46 54 34 60 / 80 60 0 0
HACHITA 46 55 33 59 / 80 40 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 46 54 31 60 / 80 40 0 0
CLOVERDALE 43 47 35 55 / 90 70 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...37-SLUSHER
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